A Little Note on Lamar Jackson

My simple rule-of-thumb with NFL players is this.  Once you’ve played 60 or so games in the NFL, that’s the player you are.  In almost every case the slope of improvement just isn’t much higher after game 60.  Guess which Ravens’ player has recently crossed that 60 game plateau?  Lamar Jackson.

Let me take a hard – and hopefully un-biased – review of Lamar Jackson the football player.

Lamar Jackson, The Athlete

Lamar Jackson is the greatest athlete to play quarterback in NFL history.  He’s the most elusive and gifted runner at the position that we have ever seen.  He can keep a play alive with his extraordinary instincts.  Jackson has the ability to force defenses to cover the entire field.  He can create touchdowns and touchdown opportunities in a multitude of ways.  So can Josh Allen.

For as long as Lamar retains 95% or so of these athletic gifts, he will present the greatest challenges for most NFL defenses.  Greg Roman has done a good job of exploiting these gifts.  The Ravens have attempted to diversify their offense away from reliance on Jackson’s running skills.  But they would be best served not to diversity too much.  Jackson’s gifts as an athlete are unmatched.

Lamar Jackson, The Passer

As a passer, Jackson delivers the ball with authority and very good accuracy on throws that are directly in front of him and in front of deep coverage.  Think all types of patterns that leave receivers inside the hashes.  He prefers to throw there.  But he struggles in many other areas of the field.

Jackson’s throws in the flat up to 10 yards down the field regularly lack zip and accuracy.  This flaw bites the offensive attack in many ways as we visualize the types of routes that the Ravens just don’t put in the weekly game plan.  Witness Jackson’s terrible swing pass attempt to Kenyan Drake in the Giants’ game.  Jackson threw the ball at Drake’s feet.  Wide receiver bubble screen passes or simple iso passes to the flat regularly land at the feet of the target, or worse.

In your mind’s eye, can you picture a hard out pattern to the sideline 12 yards downfield?  Or to the back shoulder where defenses are practically defenseless?  Shall I even mention that this was the staple of Flacco-to-Mason?  Nah, just think Aaron Rodgers.  Jackson is incapable of using his arm in this way.  I can recall one pass this year where the back shoulder toss was executed successfully.  Or even attempted.

Lamar Jackson and the Deep Ball

Then there’s the deep ball.  Let’s face it, Lamar is just miserable on any deep pass that requires him to hit the runner in stride.  No doubt there are mechanical flaws here.  Lamar seemingly lacks the natural ability to intuitively calculate ball angles and trajectories matched to the speed and acceleration of his receiver.  This inability is a terrible Greek tragedy, given that the Ravens are regularly able to create deep ball opportunities when their running game is effective.

There are an almost endless number of play designs (when the run game is working) where linebackers and safeties can be (and are) drawn up, leading to receivers running free behind isolated corners or even deep coverage.  I used to think that only Hollywood Brown on the roster was effective in this way.  But I now believe that in the Ravens attack elite speed is unnecessary to create these opportunities.  Greg Roman works hard to set up these golden opportunities.  But Jackson just leaves too many points on the field because of his inability to even give the receiver a chance to make a play.

I’m past the point of believing that Lamar can improve this part of his game.  Hitting an open deep receiver in stride on any type of regular basis just isn’t who Lamar is as a passer.  He has a tremendously quick release, but is unable to combine this with an assassin’s accuracy.  So instead of attempting to hit deep receivers in stride, I’d rather see him put more air under the ball to allow the receiver to run and get it.

Target Diversification – Or the Absence Thereof

Lamar Jackson does not seem comfortable spreading the ball around.  I’ve noted several times this year how almost 50% of all targets go to the uber-talented Mark Andrews.  But then consider how quarterbacks like Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and others regularly distribute the ball to a multitude of targets.  Mahomes throws to almost everybody on the field.

Andrews is spectacular against zone coverage, with the freedom to break off his routes to any free spot he identifies in the zones.  Teams that play zone against the Ravens do it to ensure that defenders are facing Jackson as often as possible, to stop Lamar from his ad-lib runs.  But Jackson’s lack of pass distribution, in my view, really hurts the Ravens in the red zone, where there is much more man and double-team coverage on Andrews.

One might say that part of this problem falls on Greg Roman, who is not dialing up enough plays (it seems) for other targets.  It’s difficult for people outside of the Castle to know with certainty what is happening in that regard.  But just think back to the Bills loss.  Jackson failed to see either Devin Duvernay or Mike Davis open in the end zone.  And Davis was almost in the direct line of vision for Lamar.  Duvernay was open on several plays against the Giants, but Lamar never went there.  Or numerous other plays where receivers are free, and Jackson just doesn’t find them.

Great Quarterbacking is All About Processing and Pattern Recognition

This leads us to (arguably) Jackson’s biggest flaw.  Like Joe Flacco, Lamar is slow to process information.  We can see this in some of the most basic ways.  For one, watch when the Ravens offense breaks the huddle and approaches the line of scrimmage.  On many occasions Jackson is still reading his wristband until the moment he gets in snap position.  And he oftentimes gets into that position with five seconds or less left on the play clock.  This leaves him with an inadequate amount of time to read the defense, process what’s coming at him and the coverage, and adjust pre-snap.

For that matter, Jackson regularly is unable to get the offense out of the huddle with more than ten seconds left on the play clock.  I know Greg Roman is working hard to change that reality and there has been some improvement.  In my view Jackson spends more time in the huddle than other quarterbacks because he needs more time to process the play call and rapidly and accurately communicate it to the other players.

Witness the processing challenge in the context of Jackson regularly holding the ball too long when he’s in the pocket.  Is he not trusting what he sees?  Is he locking on?  Is he unable to throw receivers open?  And then there’s the almost universal inability to audible pre-snap.  It happens once in a big blue moon, but that’s it.  Ever see Lamar pointing at linebackers and helping identify where pressures will be coming from?  Or motioning to receivers to alert them that he will be coming their way because pre-snap coverage is creating an unexpected opportunity?

None of this ever happens.  And we’re 60+ games into his career.

Can Lamar Jackson Take the Ravens to the Promised Land?

Now let me take a step back.  The fundamental question for the Ravens and for fans is the obvious one.  Can the Ravens win a Super Bowl with Lamar at quarterback.  To me the answer is yes, but in a more limited way than it is for Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes.  Why?  Because Lamar’s flaws are more easily attacked by the best defenses when it matters the most.  And this means that the Ravens more generally need to be in a position where they are not regularly dependent on Jackson trying to win the game for them in the fourth quarter.  How do the Ravens get there?  With a better defense, and with more reliance on their running backs.  But that’s for another day.  And so is more discussion about Lamar Jackson.