The Ravens Lamar Salary Cap Quandary

I was originally intending this post as the “pro” case for keeping Lamar.  But I’m changing things around a bit.  It’s more pertinent to take a look at the basic question.  From a salary cap perspective, can the Ravens afford to keep Lamar Jackson as a franchised player in 2023?  Here, the Ravens really are in a salary cap quandary.

As most readers are probably aware, the Ravens can select one of two franchise designations, but the only one that is relevant is the exclusive tag.  The cap number for exclusive tag purposes is $45.25 million, with the Ravens only having $26.48 million of available cap space as this is written.  Under the NFL off-season cap rules, the $45.25 exclusive cap number only counts as $32.5 million until five days before the draft.  This means that the Ravens must only lop off slightly more than $6 million of cap space by March 15, 2023 when the new season begins.  Bigger adjustments must happen right before the draft.

The Salary Cap Quandary – Pressure on the Roster

But then let’s take a look at how difficult it will be for the Ravens to structure a 2023 roster with Lamar Jackson carrying a $45.25 million cap number.  For one, this represents over 20% of the entire team salary cap.  This is an impossible allocation to work with from a cap perspective.  I believe the only player in the league who accounts for a larger percentage is DeShaun Watson, and the Browns are functionally screwed as a result.  By comparison, Patrick Mahomes accounts for less than 13% of the Chiefs’ cap.

The Ravens would be tasked with going through a series of restructurings and possibly some hard cuts just to create enough salary cap space to fit in Lamar’s $45.25 million by draft day.

The Lamar Salary Cap Quandary – Who Can/Must the Ravens Restructure?

To keep Lamar under the franchise designation, the Ravens must make a series of tough roster adjustments.  Organizationally, they prefer to avoid restructurings, though they have done some minor ones, even in 2022.  But in light of the Lamar situation, they would have to turn to Ronnie Stanley, Marlon Humphrey and Mark Andrews as principal sources of additional cap space.  Stanley and Andrews are under contract for three more seasons (through 2025).  Humphrey is under contract for four more seasons.

Stanley is the largest potential source of cap savings.  I’m not a cap guru.  But by my rough count, they could convert approximately $15 million of his 2023 base salary to a bonus and save approximately $10 million towards the cap without extending him.  This places larger burdens on the 2024 and 2025 salary caps.  But the Ravens would have to accept that.

With Marlon Humphrey, they could convert approximately $9 million of his 2023 base salary to bonus and save approximately $7 million.  These two moves would net around $17 million, leaving them still short a few million dollars.  They might be able to free up another $2 million or so by restructuring Mark Andrews.

Then there’s Calais Campbell.  His cap figure currently stands at $9.4 million which obviously makes no sense.  If the Ravens want him back it would make sense to restructure him to at least a two year deal, which could free up $2-$2.5 million.  But there’s a fair argument that, as a salary cap matter they should move on from Campbell, in spite of his top-level play in 2022.

The Lamar Salary Cap Quandary – Who Can the Ravens Release?

There are a group of players currently under contract who would be in jeopardy if the Ravens are forced to carry Jackson under the full $45.25 million franchise number

Prominent Players

After any restructurings, one could easily foresee moves impacting Chuck Clark, Michael Pierce or perhaps Kevin Zeitler.  The first two players could be moved off of the roster.  Zeitler, who currently has one year left and carries a  $9.4 million cap number for 2023, could be extended.  He could also be released from a cap perspective, but I downgrade this possibility given the inevitable loss of Ben Powers at left guard.

Perhaps the Ravens could get some lower round draft capital in exchange for Clark.  Pierce, whose release would save $2.1 million in cap space, probably has no tradeable value and would just be let go.  If the Ravens don’t retain Campbell, I doubt they would release Pierce at this point, though it is interesting that they resigned Brent Urban so quickly.  It turned out they didn’t need Pierce last year.  They could take the same view for 2023.

Some Offensive Cuts?

Then there’s the more remote (in my view) possibility that they could release or trade Devin Duvernay, who carries a $4.5 million cap number.  Lopping him off of the roster would save $4.3 million in cap space.  I consider this a lesser likelihood because the Ravens wide receiver room is essentially bare.

The other, more realistic, possibility is Gus Edwards, who carries a $5.6 million cap figure and could save the Ravens $4.3 million if they release him.  Let’s face it, the Ravens should not be sharing carries between Edwards and J.K. Dobbins.  I see Dobbins earning at least two-thirds of eligible carries next year.  Under those circumstances, you don’t carry a second running back at the Edwards cap figure.  Edwards is a nice player, but he can be replaced.  He could well face either a restructure or an outright release.

And More?

But the Ravens can’t stop there.  They will need many more millions of additional cap space just to complete their roster.  Regarding their own free agents, might they want back Justin Houston, Demarcus Robinson, Geno Stone (especially if they move on from Chuck Clark), Nick Moore, and/or Trystan Colon-Castillo (who has a shot to win the left guard spot as they move on from Ben Powers) back?   What about Josh Oliver or Justice Hill?  Are they interested in Marcus Peters?  You get the picture.

And what about signing any other free agents?  The Ravens need help at corner, at wide receiver, at edge linebacker, on the offensive line, and possibly on the defensive line.  They can’t fill all of that in a five-pick college draft.

The Lamar Salary Cap Quandary is a Huge Challenge

Carrying Lamar on a $45.25 million salary cap figure in 2023 dims the Ravens’ Super Bowl ambitions for 2023.  What a difficult position they will be in.  The reality of the salary cap places serious pressure on the Ravens Lamar decision.

But let’s step back and think about what’s going on here.   Lamar apparently has not budged much, if at all, from his contract demands.  We’ve all been led to believe that he wants a fully guaranteed contract.  If that’s true (and we assume that it is) it’s easy to infer that the priorities for Lamar are these.  First, max out his guaranteed money.  Second, win a championship.

Any player who insists on this level of guarantee cares little about the resulting diminished chance his team has to complete the roster around him.  It’s the opposite of Joe Burrow.  According to Ja’Marr Chase, “Joe knows how he wants to set up his contract to keep his weapons around him.”  But apparently not Lamar.  And it’s reasonable to assume that if he insists on receiving close to, or a fully, guaranteed contract, he won’t get one from the Ravens.

The Ravens obviously know how far they are willing to go on the guarantee issue.  They’ve already decided that.  And they have a better handle than anyone on the probability that Lamar will reign in his demands.  As we stand today, Lamar is forcing them to choose between paying a fully guaranteed deal, which they refuse, or carrying him on the roster at a $45.25 million cap figure, a likely impossible burden.  And then there’s the third choice.