Should the Ravens Trade Lamar Jackson?

Should (or must) the Ravens trade Lamar Jackson?  Teams have almost universally rejected Jackson as a free agent.  Many observers attribute this shunning to Lamar’s alleged fully guaranteed contract demand.  But is it more than that?  Yes.  I’ve written numerous times regarding Lamar’s flaws as a pocket passer.  He’s challenged reading defenses.  Just getting to the line of scrimmage in a consistently timely manner has been difficult.  His work habits are less than admirable.  Then there’s the injuries and the obvious issue of how long he can retain his running skills.  Add it all up and he’s nowhere near the “clean” quarterback that teams drool over.  Combined with his contract demands, Lamar makes a poor case for a team to pay him a fortune and give up a lot of draft capital to do it.

It’s clear that Lamar has grossly over-estimated his contract value.  Forget DeShaun Watson.  Until Lamar accepts that reality and recalibrates, he will never sign a contract.

Nevertheless, Lamar’s made his trade demand public.

Is Lamar Tradeable?

Let’s initially explore which teams could realistically consummate a trade/tender an offer for Jackson given salary cap situations.  For this purpose I am not simply looking at the stated current available cap space for these teams.  Rather, it’s the effective cap space that matters.  Effective cap space considers how much cap space a team has after signing their anticipated draft picks.

Suitors Must Have the Cap Space

We also have to bear in mind that any team that gives Lamar an offer sheet that he signs must have the requisite cap space available at the moment Lamar signs it.  As a practical matter, because the Ravens have the right to match, the offering team might be forced to restructure various existing contracts in advance of knowing what the Ravens will do.  No team would want to restructure unless it is certain that, in the end, they get Lamar.  For interested teams that don’t have a lot of cap space, this is a real impediment to pursuing Jackson.  At the same time, this tilts the playing field for interested teams in favor of those with significant available cap space.

These realities have an acute impact on at least one team who pundits link to Jackson – the Washington Commanders.  The Commanders have publicly stated they have no interest in Lamar.  But even if that is a bluff, they have only $2.4 million of available cap space, and actually need to free up over $1 million just to sign their picks.  They could restructure a series of contracts to free up enough cap space to sign Lamar (say Lamar signs for a 2023 cap figure of $25 million).  This would include Jonathan Allen, Curtis Samuel, Charles Leno Jr., and perhaps Chase Roulier – all of which is a serious endeavor and without certainty of getting Jackson in the end.  With the team apparently on the market, I discount the Commanders as a Jackson possibility.

Jackson Suitors?  Teams With Cap Space

Notwithstanding public statements made by various clubs, the following teams could have an interest in Jackson.  These teams are listed in the order of their available cap space (in millions):

Lions      = $23.7               $15.3

Packers = $22                    $18.2

Falcons = $21.7                 $16.5

Colts     = $20.1                  $12.4

Texans  = $19.7                  $8.6

Patriots = $10.7                  $6.5

49ers     =  $4.3                    $3.3

Texans: Highly Improbable

The Texans should probably just select a quarterback with the second pick in the draft.  They’d get whoever the Panthers don’t between Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud.  This would give them a top prospect on a rookie contract for the next four years.  During those four years they can spend cap money at other positions and build their team.  This is an obvious case to make.

But if, for some reason, they’d prefer Jackson, the Ravens couldn’t expect to trade Lamar Jackson and arguably not get much more back than the #2 pick in this year’s draft.  In fact, by some draft analytics Jackson alone is not worth the number two pick in the draft when that pick is a quarterback.  Would you swap Jackson for, say, C.J. Stroud straight up?

The Texans look like a real long-shot in the Jackson race.

Lions: Not a Crazy Notion

Should the Ravens trade Lamar Jackson to the Lions?  The Lions have publicly stated that they are not interested in Jackson.  For the sake of argument, let’s assume that is a bluff.  What might or should they do?

Jared Goff’s contract expires after the 2024 season (two years to go).  He’s 29 years old.  It’s not a crazy notion by any stretch for the Lions to upgrade with Lamar.  Goff’s 2023 salary is $20.9 million and his cap number for the Lions is $30.9 million.  If they trade him before June 1, they’d save $16 million under the cap.  If Lamar does a deal with a 2023 cap figure of $25 million, the Lions would net spend $9 million of additional cap.

From a football perspective, swapping into Lamar for the upswinging Lions makes sense.  What would it take for the Ravens to trade Lamar Jackson to Detroit?  The Lions have a lot of draft capital this year, holding picks 6, 18, 48, and 55 in the first two rounds.  Would these two teams be interested in a swap with the Ravens getting a combination of picks in 2023 and 2024 that include at least the 6^th pick in the first round this year?

Just as a reference point for trade value, I’ve seen at least one astute draft observer conclude that the Lions would want to trade up to the third pick to select Anthony Richardson, this year’s version of Lamar.  He believes it would cost Detroit the 6, 48, and 81 picks this year, and their 1^st and 4^th next year.  Now granted, Richardson would be playing under a rookie contract, a big difference from Lamar.  But there is obvious risk in drafting Richardson – is he boom, or is he bust?  You know (largely) what you’re getting with Jackson.

The simple point here is that the basket of picks suggested to swap into the number three pick is not terribly off from what the Lions might do to get Jackson.

Packers: Probably a Very Long Shot

The Pack has to address the Aaron Rodgers issue before they could contemplate acquiring Jackson.  This alone makes it quite unlikely that Green Bay currently has any interest in Jackson, at least for now.  Moreover, the Pack holds just the 15^th pick in this year’s draft, which is not all that enticing for Jackson.  But let’s say the Ravens were willing to take Jordan Love (he’s on the last year of his rookie deal) and, say, two number ones and a number two.

Trading Rodgers on his currently structured contract will actually cost Green Bay another $8.6 million of cap space.  The balance of their roster is not all that conducive to freeing up a lot of cap space, though there are a few moves they could make.  But I think they would be very challenged to do it.  I don’t think Lamar has a great chance of winding up in Green Bay.

Atlanta:  Actions Speak Loudly – Likely Zero Interest

Like the Lions and the Commanders, the Falcons publicly claim no interest in Lamar.  But we need to consider them as a landing spot because they have the cap space to do it.

The Falcons drafted Desmond Ridder last year.  They signed Taylor Heinicke, albeit for just $6.3 million of guaranteed money.  Now the Heinicke signing looks like your typical backup NFL quarterback situation.  The team invested in Ridder, and wants a decent veteran to ride the pines behind him and provide wisdom to the youngster.  Does it make sense for them to shift to Jackson at this point in the off-season?

I doubt it.  Yes, the Falcons have the cap space to get Lamar and could easily create more by converting Grady Jarrett’s $16.5 million salary into bonus pro-rated over three years (netting them around $10 million of more cap space).  But it looks like they’ve already made their bed.

Colts: Now We’re Talking!

As readers know, I’ve thought all along that the Colts are the right team to pursue Jackson.  Nothing has changed my mind.  They certainly didn’t sign Gardner Minshew to be their starter.  There’s no way they’re turning to Nick Foles.  Let’s get serious here.  For the Colts, it’s all about Lamar Jackson or Anthony Richardson (I’m discounting Will Levis).

The Richardson versus Lamar analysis, as noted above, isn’t all that complicated.  Lamar’s established and, from the perspective of the Colts and their new coaching staff, has more upside than the Ravens were able to tap.  It’s reasonable to conclude that Lamar can do more as a passer.  The Colts have a solid group of wide receivers and an outstanding running back.  Their offensive line was disappointing.  But they have ample cap space, particularly when they could easily convert some of DeForest Buckner’s salary into amortizable bonus (and the same goes for Braden Smith).

Lamar would definitely sell seats in Indy.  The AFC South is not very strong, and the Colts could imagine themselves winning the division with Jackson.  That won’t happen with Anthony Richardson in 2023.  What would it take for the Ravens to trade Lamar Jackson to the Colts?

For starters, the Colts number four pick this year, and their number one in 2024.  Then add in some blend of a number two and number three from this year and next year.  Then there’s two players who would interest me.  Both are edge defenders: Kwity Paye and Dayo Odeyingbo.  I’d be happy with either of these guys, who are both ascending.  The point is there is plenty enough here to make a deal.

In this scenario drafting a quarterback becomes the Ravens focus with the fourth pick.  They may be forced to trade up to number three to assure themselves of getting their man, which should come at a modest price.

Patriots and 49ers

The 49ers cannot sign Jackson until after this year’s draft (they don’t have their own first round pick this year, which makes them ineligible).  Although Jackson’s addition would immediately make them the NFC favorites, their cap situation is very difficult and complicated and it seems virtually impossible for them to make this move.

The Patriots could choose to move on from Mac Jones, and who could blame them.  But there’s not tremendous restructuring flexibility available under their cap to free up another $20 million or so of space.  They could be looking at making a few releases to get a deal done.  Various reports indicate they aren’t interested in Jackson.  I discount their chances.

Trade Lamar Jackson – So Where Are We?

The Colts should be the favorites here to acquire Lamar.  The Lions should be the sleeper that should consider making the move.  Where else could serious interest come from?  I just don’t see it.  The Seahawks make sense but the cap situation for them is very complicated.

What should the Ravens do if the Colts or Lions come knocking?  If it’s the Lions in the end, Eric DeCosta will have a difficult decision to make.  Does he attempt to draft the successor to Jackson this year or next?  If he wants Anthony Richardson, he’ll have to trade in front of the Colts to get him.  If not, he has to gamble and wait on the 2023 season results for his slot in the 2024 quarterback lottery.  That’s a lot of unknowns.

The Colts could force the Ravens into a trade.  They have (or can create) the cap flexibility to outbid the Ravens.  Trade Lamar Jackson to the Colts?  It could happen.

If DeCosta and company believe the proposed compensation to the Ravens in any trade is adequate, then it should come down to whether Lamar wants to come back to Baltimore.  Who’s to say what Jackson is thinking.  He’s obviously frustrated and disappointed that his (unrealistic) expectations weren’t met by the Ravens.  But the Ravens offer, in the end, may be his best offer.  If he’s willing to come back on a long term deal, effectively negotiated in the market, it makes sense for the Ravens to keep him.  Or would you rather gamble on Anthony Richardson with some other assets thrown in?