The Ravens 2024 Draft Big Board is locked in. Let’s start with a brief review of the Ravens picks and the amount of draft capital they possess. I’m glad this fun process is over! And by committing me to writing, it shows how little I actually know. First, a preliminary.
Ravens Draft Slots and Draft Capital
The Ravens have one pick in each of the first three rounds, two fourth rounders (one from Denver), one fifth rounder, one sixth and two sevenths. I value those picks under the points model of both the “Jimmy Johnson” model and the Rich Hill model.
Ravens Picks Johnson Model Rich Hill Model
Pick 30 620 196
Pick 62 284 84
Pick 93 128 42
Pick 113 68 27
Pick 130 42 18
Pick 165 25.4 10
Pick 218 4.2 3
Pick 228 2 3
Pick 250 2 1
One or both of these charts (or a close facsimile) are used by GMs to help calculate the value of their picks in making draft day trades. Teams don’t always stick tightly to these values, but they are pretty good approximations of what GMs expect to give/get to consummate trades.
As a brief example, let’s say the Ravens want to trade up from pick 30 in the first round to pick 25. Under the Johnson model, pick 25 is worth 720 points. This means the Ravens would need to work a swap where they give the pick 25 team (Green Bay) 100 additional points. Using Green Bay’s picks as a further example, the Ravens could give Green Bay pick 113 plus pick 42 (110 total points), and Green Bay would return pick 25 plus pick 202 (worth 10.6 points) for a trade of rough equivalent value.
Comment on Needs
By my count, here’s what the Ravens need based on their current roster:
Offense:
Starting right tackle.
Starting guard.
Third running back.
Third and fifth wide receiver.
Defense:
Starting edge linebacker.
Outside cornerback with starter potential.
Slot cornerback.
Safety – either position versatile, or free safety caliber.
Inside linebacker (backup).
Other:
Special teams depth.
Punt returner.
Ravens First Round Approach
In years gone by the Ravens under Eric DeCosta have been willing to draft the best person available on their draft board, regardless of actual need. The selection of Kyle Hamilton is a prime example. Hamilton was selected at pick 14 when the Ravens had no safety need. They selected him because he was, by their account, by far the best player on their draft board. So does the “draft best player available regardless of need” always necessarily apply?
I think the answer to that question depends where you are selecting in the first round. In my experience there are generally, in most drafts, anywhere between 15 and 25 players who actually have first round grades. When you are drafting high in the order, it’s hard to pass up one of those players who you rank really high who slips down the board. This is particularly the case if it’s a player you grade much higher who becomes available. Like Hamilton.
But when you’re drafting at pick 30, the calculus shifts, in my view. Let’s say, for example, the Ravens have 22 players with first round grades in this year’s draft. By pick 30, the only one left on their board is a running back. At the same time, one right tackle they grade as a top second round talent is also available. Should they pick the running back, even though Derrick Henry is locked in as RB1 and destined to get roughly 20 carries per game? Or should they go down their own board a little bit and pick the right tackle, a position where they have a glaring need?
I maintain that drafting down this low in the first round absolutely augurs for taking the best player available in their positions of need. It would be foolish for the 2024 Ravens to take the running back. At best, the running back (who might only get five to ten touches per game) only minimally adds to the Ravens probability of winning the Super Bowl. The right tackle likely has a much greater impact on their chances of success.
Ravens 2024 First Round: Needs
For most Ravens fans it is obvious (hopefully) that the team needs two starters on the offensive line: a right tackle and a guard. They also could use a starting edge linebacker and a cornerback. Yesterday’s signing of Rashod Bateman is a very strong signal that the Ravens will not target a wide receiver in the first round. None of the other positions, in my view, need a first round talent infusion this year.
This leaves us with four types of first round targets: an offensive tackle (left or right, with a drafted left tackle playing on the right side for 2024), a guard, an edge linebacker, and a cornerback.
Number One Need: Offensive Tackle
I believe that tackle is the clear top need on this roster. And there are a couple of players who could be available at or near pick 30. Now before I jump to the need, I also argue that if the Ravens have a true first round grade on a tackle who is available at, say, pick 26, they should seriously consider trading up to get him. Why? Because I think this is a comparatively weak draft this year, with fewer “value” picks towards the bottom of this draft where the Ravens have a majority of their picks.
There’s no way that the top two tackles get anywhere near where the Ravens are hunting. Joe Alt and Olu Fashanu will be long gone, which is why I never considered them. Now unlike some others, I don’t see eight first round tackles in this class. Arguably, there are four more: Taliese Fuaga, J.C. Latham, Amarius Mims, and Tyler Guyton.
I don’t grade Fuaga as a first round worthy tackle prospect; he merits a first round grade at guard. So from my seat, I’m rooting for Fuaga to be the third tackle taken.
Tackles: Top Three
The top three tackles on my board (all of whom you can read about here) in order, are:
J.C. Latham
Amarius Mims
Tyler Guyton
I believe it unlikely that Latham will fall into the 20s in the first round. The probability of his getting to the Ravens is extraordinarily low. That leaves Mims and Guyton, and I grade Mims a clear notch ahead of Guyton. One more point. I’m not entirely convinced that Guyton is a first round talent at this point. He lands in the first round only because there aren’t 25 first round rated players by my book. If he’s the “last tackle standing” at pick 30, I wouldn’t hesitate to trade back.
A lot of the draft gurus believe the Ravens should draft Jordan Morgan (reviewed here) as their right tackle answer at pick 30. As readers know, I believe Morgan is best suited at guard in the NFL. That doesn’t mean he couldn’t play tackle (at least on the right side). Rather, it means I think with his strengths and weaknesses that’s where he has the best chance to thrive. Because of his weaknesses I would not draft him at slot 30 to play right tackle. Unless, of course, the Ravens at that point cannot foresee any way to acquire a high quality tackle candidate within the first two rounds. Morgan is another guy that, he’s still there, I would try to trade back and still draft.
First Round: Guard, Edge, or Corner?
If all of the first round tackle candidates are gone, what then? I’m grouping the possible guard, edge linebacker, and cornerback candidates together at this point to produce a preference ranking. First, a quick review of the candidates.
Guard
At guard there are actually three players I would consider at pick 30. In order:
Troy Fautanu
Jackson Powers-Johnson
Jordan Morgan
I would not be willing to trade back from pick 30 with Fautanu – certainly not very far – unless my landing spot is where I could still nab him. As among the three guards, if Powers-Johnson and Morgan are still available at 30 and I thought I could trade back to, say, 38, and still get one of them, I would do it.
Edge Linebacker
The edge linebacker situation has similar features/concerns. The Ravens dream scenario at edge – and it’s a dream – is Jared Verse falling down the board. I just don’t think the Ravens can place a large bet on David Ojabo at this point. I’m rooting for him as are you. But the second edge position is a big hole on the Ravens front until proven otherwise. Verse would be the answer if he were there. I’d consider going up to get him if he’s falling to, say, pick 25. But that’s highly unlikely.
At that point there are two possible edge linebacker candidates who merit consideration if they are there at pick 30: Chop Robinson and Laiatu Lutu. Both players have risks, as I described (look here). On further reflection, I probably would not take Lutu if he’s available. He’s not going to be a premier edge run defender. Meaning, perhaps he will be an elite or very good pass rusher; but I think he’ll always have flaws in the run game. And though he’s quite talented with his rush package, he’s not Dwight Freeney either.
Chop Robinson has the potential to be the whole package. But he likely won’t be in 2024, even if he has a strong developmental year. He’s a risk too.
On my board, on balance, I have Robinson higher than Lutu. But I’d be trying to trade back if either one is still there at pick 30 and the tackles and guards are all gone.
Cornerbacks
I must say I’m not enamored with any of the several first round cornerback candidates who could be available. The candidates:
Nate Wiggins
I like Wiggins, but he’s just so tiny. There’s no way he can provide run support. I can’t draft a player like that at pick 30. Actually, I can’t draft a player like that at all no matter how good of a cover corner he might be. Wiggins will have a difficult time holding up.
Kool-Aid McKinstry
Turnovers are not his game. Run support is not his game (he’s adequate). He’s ok in press-man. He’s strong in zone coverage. I fear McKinstry will turn out to have reached his peak two years ago, and then leveled off. He absolutely could be there for the Ravens. I’m not turning in his card at pick 30.
Cooper DeJean
DeJean is a good football player. He is not someone I’m drafting in the first round.
So I guess it’s obvious. It think this is a weak year for first-round caliber corners. There are precisely two of them, both of whom will be long gone before the Ravens’ are called to the table. I’m passing on what’s left in round 1.
The Big Board Complete First Round Preference Order
In order, these are my first round preferences for the Ravens:
J.C. Latham
Jared Verse
Amarius Mims
Troy Fautanu
Jackson Powers-Johnson
Jordan Morgan
Tyler Guyton (coin-flip with Robinson)
Chop Robinson
Laiatu Lutu
You could draw the line at several places on this list and conclude: below that line, I’m looking to trade back. For me, it starts conceivably with Powers-Johnson.
The Complete Big Board: Draftable Players for the Ravens
Overall, this is not a great year. It’s not an especially deep class. In a year like this, I wouldn’t hesitate to trade lower round picks to go up and nab a guy I really love. At the same time, I wouldn’t hesitate to trade, say, a fifth rounder this year to a team willing to give up a fourth rounder in 2025. Yes, the Ravens may well have four extra picks next year as compensation picks. But I think 2025 will be a much better class. There’s nothing wrong with being loaded with picks in that eventuality.
Below is my complete list of players who I believe should be on the Ravens draft board. By way of self-evaluation, I’m a conservative grader, meaning I tend to grade players a bit lower than the consensus, more often than not.
When you see a player on this list with, say, a round four grade, that means I believe in an average year that player’s fair value is in round four. My grade is not a prediction of where that player will ultimately be selected.
Round Ranking
Players the Ravens should consider drafting are listed, by round:
RAVENS BIG BOARD: First Round
Brian Thomas Jr. – Wide receiver
J.C. Latham – Offensive tackle
Jared Verse – Edge linebacker
Amarius Mims – Offensive tackle
Tory Fautanu – Guard
Jackson Powers-Johnson – Guard
Jordan Morgan – Guard (not as a tackle)
Tyler Guyton – Tackle
Chop Robinson – Edge linebacker
Laiatu Lutu – Edge linebacker
Graham Barton – Center (I didn’t evaluate Barton as I see him being drafted as a center before the Ravens select)
Two comments are needed here. First, before the Ravens extended Bateman, if you’d have told me that Thomas is somehow on the board at or near pick 30, should the Ravens have drafted him? Thomas is a very talented player who has elite potential at or equal to the top three receivers in this draft.
This would have posed the “need” versus “best player” question for Eric DeCosta. I love Thomas. But I would not have drafted him if Latham or Mims was still around. If they were both gone, and Bateman wasn’t under contract, I would have drafted Thomas. And that’s before I would have drafted any of the guards.
Second, I believe Graham Barton could be an outstanding guard in the NFL. Reportedly, there are medical issues concerning Barton (though I have not verified the reports). Medicals notwithstanding, is he a lock to be better than Fautanu, Morgan, and Powers-Johnson as a guard? If healthy, I expect Barton to be drafted as a center somewhere in the 20’s picks. It’s his best utility. He obviously wouldn’t play center in Baltimore. If he is available at pick 30, he would be in the mix with the three guards listed, but not clearly better than any of them.
RAVENS BIG BOARD: Second Round
Players below are grouped by position. Within the position, they are ranked in order of my preference. Some of the tackles/guards listed above will still be available in round 2. If the Ravens fail to draft one in the first round, they will take preference in the second.
Ladd McConkey – Wide receiver (though I explain here why they shouldn’t select him)
Roman Wilson – Wide receiver
Ricky Pearsall – Wide receiver
Malachi Corley – Wide receiver
Kingsley Suamataia – Offensive tackle
Cooper Beebe – Guard
Dominic Puni – Guard
Cooper DeJean – Cornerback/slot cornerback
Kool-Aid McKinstry – Cornerback
Mike Sainristil – Slot cornerback
Ennis Rakestraw, Jr. – Slot cornerback
Darius Robinson – Edge linebacker
**Austin Booker – Edge linebacker (round 2 or 3)
Kamren Kinchens – Safety (round 2 or 3)
Zach Frazier – Center (I didn’t evaluate Frazier because, even though he could play guard, he’ll likely be drafted before pick 62 as a center)
Players Who Will Likely Go in Round 2 Who I Wouldn’t Select
For explanations as to why I would not draft these players, all of whom will be drafted and likely in this round, see the position Prospects Reviews previously posted.
Adonai Mitchell – Wide receiver (could go in round one)
Xavier Worthy – Wide receiver
Nate Wiggins – Cornerback
Max Melton – Cornerback
T.J. Tampa – Cornerback
Marshawn Kneeland – Edge linebacker
Javon Bullard – Safety (but I would draft him lower)
Mike Hall, Jr. – Defensive line
Ruke Ohorohoro – Defensive line
RAVENS BIG BOARD: Third Round
Jaylen Wright – Running back
Kiran Amegadjie – Offensive tackle
Brandon Coleman – Offensive tackle
Christian Haynes – Guard
Sataoa Laumea – Guard (3rd or 4th round)
Jarvis Brownlee – Cornerback
Nehemiah Pritchett – Cornerback
Andru Phillips – Cornerback
Caelen Carson – Cornerback (3rd or 4th round)
Chris Braswell – Edge linebacker
Jonah Elliss – Edge linebacker
**T’Vondre Sweat – Defensive line
Braden Fiske – Defensive line
Jeremiah Trotter – Inside linebacker
Calen Bullock – Safety
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson – Safety (round 3 or 4)
Players Who Will Like Go in Round 3 Who I Wouldn’t Select
Keon Coleman – Wide receiver
Troy Franklin – Wide receiver
Xavier Legette – Wide receiver
Jermain Burton – Wide receiver
Isaiah Adams – Guard
Patrick Paul – Offensive tackle
Roger Rosengarten – Offensive tackle
Adisa Isaac – Edge linebacker
Cole Bishop – Safety
Tyler Nubin – Safety
Brandon Dorlus – Defensive line
With any of these “avoids,” things can change if the Ravens fail, for example, to draft a tackle in round one or two. In that scenario, they might draft (say) Patrick Paul.
RAVENS BIG BOARD: Fourth Round
Jamari Thrash – Wide receiver
**Ja’Lynn Polk – Wide receiver
Jacob Cowing – Wide receiver
Tyrone Tracy, Jr. – Running back
Isaac Guerendo – Running back
Caedan Wallace – Offensive tackle
**Jarrian Jones – Cornerback/slot cornerback
Renardo Green – Cornerback
Dwight McGlothern Jr. – Cornerback (4th or 5th round)
**Jaylin Simpson – Safety
Kitan Oladapo – Safety
Cedric Gray – Inside linebacker
Players Who Will Likely Go in Round 4 Who I Wouldn’t Select
Malik Washington – Wide receiver
Javon Baker – Wide receiver
Brenden Rice – Wide receiver
Jalen McMillan – Wide receiver
Trey Benson – Running back
Blake Fisher – Offensive tackle
Christian Jones – Offensive tackle
Mason McCormick – Guard (though I would consider him at fifth round or lower)
Christian Mahogany – Guard
Delmar Glaze – Guard
Zak Zinter – Guard
Kamari Lassiter – Cornerback
D.J. James – Cornerback
Kris Abrams-Draine – Cornerback
Bralen Trice – Edge linebacker
Gabriel Murphy – Edge linebacker
Jaden Hicks – Safety (many rate him as a second rounder)
Tykee Smith – Safety
Beau Brade – Safety
Masson Smith – Defensive line
Leonard Taylor III – Defensive line
RAVENS BIG BOARD: Fifth Round and Below
**Jha’Quan Jackson – Wide receiver
Luke McCaffrey – Wide receiver
Tulu Griffin – Kick returner (but not as a wide receiver)
Ryan Flournoy – Wide receiver
**Kimani Vidal – Running back
Myles Harden – Cornerback
Jalyx Hunt – Edge linebacker (special teams)
Brennan Jackson – Edge linebacker
Mohamed Kamara- Edge linebacker
Nelson Ceaser III – Edge linebacker (developmental only)
Dominque Hampton – Safety
Daijahn Anthony – Safety
Curtis Jacobs – Inside linebacker
Jordan Magee – Inside linebacker
Arist Liufau – Inside linebacker
Ty’ron Hopper – Inside linebacker
Gabe Hall – Defensive line (I altered my view on Hall; draftable at this level)
Jowon Briggs – Defensive line
McKinley Jackson – Defensive line
Players Who Will Likely Go in Round 5 and Below Who I Wouldn’t Select
Devontez Walker – Wide receiver
Johnny Wilson – Wide receiver
Anthony Gould – Wide receiver (But a yes as a punt returner)
Rasheen Ali – Running back
Dylan Laube – Running back
Daijun Edwards – Running back
Blake Watson – Running back
Emani Bailey – Running back
Jaden Shirden – Running back
Javon Foster – Offensive tackle
Walter Rouse – Offensive tackle
Nathan Thomas – Offensive tackle
Ethan Driskell – Offensive tackle
Frank Crum – Offensive tackle
Matt Goncalves – Guard
Layden Robinson – Guard
Trevor Keegan – Guard
Javion Cohen – Guard
Cam Hart – Cornerback
DeCamerion Richardson – Cornerback
Josh Newton – Cornerback
Cedric Johnson – Edge linebacker
Eric Watts – Edge linebacker
Malik Mustapha – Safety
Evan Williams – Safety
Tommy Eichenberg – Inside linebacker
Khristian Boyd – Defensive line
Starred Players: Players with a double star next to their bolded names are players I really like at the level they are listed. In the case of Austin Booker, he’s really starred as a third rounder in my book. Jarrian Jones as starred as a slot corner.
Who Has Met With the Ravens?
According to reports, the Ravens have met with the following players (by one means or another) in the pre-draft process. This doesn’t mean the Ravens will draft them. But take whatever insight you may:
Bo Nix – quarterback
Isaac Guerendo – running back
Audric Estime – running back
Raheen Ali – running back
Jase McClellan – running back
Tyler Guyton – offensive tackle
Blake Fisher – offensive tackle
Brandon Coleman – offensive tackle
Barsen Barnhart – offensive tackle
Patrick Paul – offensive tackle
Travis Glover – offensive tackle
Jordan Mogan – guard
Delmar Glaze – guard
Tanor Bortolini – guard
Troy Fautanu – guard
Jordyn Slaughter – guard
Brenden Bates – tight end
Theo Johnson – tight end
Tanner McLachlan – tight end
Ja’Tavion Sanders – tight end
Ladd McConkey – wide receiver
Malachi Corley – wide receiver
Xavier Legette – wide receiver
Xavier Worthy – wide receiver
Javon Baker – wide receiver
Keon Coleman – wide receiver
Chop Robinson – edge linebacker
Austin Booker – edge linebacker
Darius Robinson – edge linebacker
Qwan’tez Stiggers – cornerback
Khristian Boyd – defensive line
Braden Fiske – defensive line
Nate Lynn – defensive line
Maason Smith – defensive line
Tuli Keutligasenoa – defensive line
Trey Taylor – safety
That’s a wrap!
