This is the first piece addressing the Ravens’ Lamar decision. You can review some prior thoughts here. Below I outline the major considerations from the Ravens’ perspective that should govern their decision. Here’s how I would approach the Ravens Lamar decision.
The process starts with defining the overarching goal. A long-term and substantial financial commitment should be made only to a quarterback who has a reasonable probability of leading a team to the Super Bowl. How many current quarterbacks in the NFL meet this requirement? Let’s take a hard look, without including Lamar Jackson initially.
The “Lock” Quarterbacks
There are seven quarterbacks who most observers, including me, consider “locks” as Super Bowl caliber leading quarterbacks for the foreseeable future.
- Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
- Joe Burrow, Bengals
- Josh Allen, Bills
- Justin Herbert, Chargers
- Jalen Hurts, Eagles
- Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
- Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins (if/when he’s healthy, he’s on the list for talent alone).
“Some Would Say Yes” Quarterbacks
As a general proposition, there is a reasonable argument that the following quarterbacks are Super Bowl caliber. But the case for these quarterbacks is clearly not as strong as the Lock quarterbacks. I have five names on this list.
- Dak Prescott, Cowboys
- Kyler Murray, Cardinals
- Geno Smith, Seahawks
- Kirk Cousins, Vikings (almost on the Old-Timers list; see below).
- DeShaun Watson, Browns
Now some readers may say that one or more of these names should be on the Lock list. But there are enough weaknesses in their respective games where I just can’t elevate them. I can’t see any of these players (including Prescott) successfully leading their teams to the Super Bowl, but because there’s a reasonable argument for each of them, they’re on this list. And yes, Geno Smith is in this group. He was excellent this year.
One can moan that DeShaun Watson should not be on this list. And maybe that is right. But his play with the Texans makes a case for him, notwithstanding his mediocre return with the Browns. I place him here because his age suggests he has a reasonable chance to re-elevate his game. But yes, it’s not an overwhelming argument.
The Unknowns
It’s just too early to know where Kenny Pickett and Justin Fields fit in. Neither has had enough time to reach an ultimate judgment. Fields, who I think is very gifted, has played in an impossible situation. Pickett showed enough this season to conclude he has an upward arc, but he needs more time.
No Chance
There are 13 teams right now who are in the hopeless category. In no particular order:
- Jets (Zach Wilson is the answer to a future trivia question).
- Patriots (Wasn’t Mac Jones a country singer)?
- Titans (Ryan Tannehill isn’t capable; Willis? I wish the Steelers had drafted him).
- Colts (quick, who is their starting quarterback?).
- Texans (they will draft their quarterback this year).
- Broncos (poor, poor John Elway. I thought Russell Wilson retired two years ago. Guess Poor John didn’t get the memo. Pity.).
- Raiders (Jarrett Stidham? Even with Derek Carr, the Raiders would be on this list. Carr is what I call a lifetime “tease”. Think Vinny Testaverde).
- Commanders (Carson Wentz? Hahaha. Taylor Heinicke? Hahaha).
- Giants (Daniel Jones? I think not).
- Lions (no, Jared Goff won’t do it).
- Saints (Jameis Winston? See the Commanders, above).
- Falcons (Desmond Ridder? He could be serviceable, and I hate to completely eliminate rookies, but he’s not on the same arc as Kenny Pickett).
- Panthers (Sam Darnold is a career backup in this league, nothing more).
The Old Timers
Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Mathew Stafford fit in this category for me. They are each one-year lightning bolts, where a team that thinks it can win this year – and who doesn’t have one of the top 12 or so quarterbacks – takes a shot on an old-timer. These players are excluded from my consideration because they no longer are franchise-type quarterbacks. And because I think the odds of any of them winning a Super Bowl are well diminished from the tops of their careers. Stafford is likely stuck.
Special Case
I don’t know what to do with Brock Purdy. The kid has been sensational. Every team in the league passed on him seven times (excepting of course the 49ers, who only passed on him six times). He’s played like the real deal. He’s surrounded by great players, but let’s not hold that against him. Time will tell. As for Trey Lance and Jimmy G., I don’t think so.
Quarterback Recap
This leaves us with 12 quarterbacks on the Super Bowl caliber list (the Locks plus the five from the Some Would Say Yes list. I’m excluding Purdy, Pickett and Fields from consideration). That’s it. Now I put Lamar in this group to make it 13. We could argue where he fits in. Safe to say that he’s not at the top of the list. Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, and Herbert are separate from the rest. Does he fit in the Lock category? It’s a fair debate, but if he doesn’t, it’s also fair to argue that he’s at the top of the Some Would Say Yes list.
In the end, the point is that Lamar is on the list of quarterbacks that can take a team to the Super Bowl. Maybe in any given year he starts off with a 10-15% probability. That means he has a reasonable chance over the balance of his career to get to the Super Bowl at least once. That seems about right to me.
Lamar’s On the List – Now What
As an initial consideration in the Ravens Lamar decision, I’m satisfied that Lamar satisfies the threshold condition for signing him to a long term commitment. He is capable of being a Super Bowl winning quarterback, albeit at odds that are below the super elite quarterbacks. But that’s OK. There are only six or seven of those guys, at the most, across the entire league. Only 25% of the teams in the league have qualifying quarterbacks. Below that, it’s incredibly difficult to win a Super Bowl across a 21 game season with any of the other quarterbacks. Sure, you can argue for Rodgers and/or Brady. But safe to say there is no chance that either of those guys will be on the Ravens next year.
This base analysis is not the end of the overarching analysis. Because the second base consideration in the Ravens Lamar decision is this. What is the probability that the Ravens, should they choose to move Lamar, could immediately thereafter find a quarterback who will meet the threshold condition?
Finding a Replacement Super Bowl Caliber Quarterback
This is no easy task, after all. The Ravens are not going to be able to acquire any of the Lock quarterbacks. They could pursue Geno Smith, either in free agency (if he gets there) or via a complex trade involving both Smith and Lamar. But what would be the point, after all. Smith would absorb less salary cap. But it’s hard to advocate that this type of move would increase the Ravens odds. Or that the extra salary cap benefit is worth it.
The 2023 NFL Draft
The obvious recourse is this year’s draft. Although I have not yet studied the quarterback prospects, the so-called draft gurus suggest there are as many as five potential first-round candidates. There is a general consensus regarding the top three. I’ll address all of this in more detail in an upcoming blog. But we all know the difficulty in drafting a quarterback. First round “winners” are less frequent than “losers.” Even drafting in the top ten, the odds of picking a winner are not favorable.
Draft Probabilities
Let’s take a look at the most recent five drafts.
In 2018 five quarterbacks were taken in the first round:
Baker Mayfield, pick one.
Sam Darnold, pick three.
Josh Allen, pick seven.
Josh Rosen, pick ten.
Lamar Jackson, pick 32.
In 2019, three quarterbacks were selected in round one:
Kyler Murray, pick one.
Daniel Jones, pick six.
Dwayne Haskins, pick 15.
In 2020, the golden year of these five years, four quarterbacks were taken in round one:
Joe Burrow, pick one.
Tua Tagovailoa, pick five.
Justin Herbert, pick six.
Jordan Love, pick 26.
In 2021, five quarterbacks were chosen:
Trevor Lawrence, pick one.
Zach Wilson, pick two.
Trey Lance, pick three.
Justin Fields, pick 11.
Mac Jones , pick 15.
Finally, in 2022 only one quarterback was selected, Kenny Pickett at pick 20.
Five-Year Draft Recap
That’s 18 first round quarterbacks over five seasons. Seven of those 18 are on the Super Bowl list. For two others (Fields and Pickett) we can’t yet reach a conclusion. At best, the odds of being right in the first round have been 40-50%. But let’s look a little closer. Of the seven “winners”, six of them were drafted within the top seven picks. Only Jackson was drafted lower. And Josh Allen was drafted seventh but only because 2018 was allegedly a great year for quarterbacks. Moreover, there were six other quarterbacks drafted in the top 10 who did not reach Super Bowl-type status. And only one of the Lock quarterbacks was drafted outside of the first round (Hurts).
The point of all of this is the obvious. The draft, even when selecting in the top ten, is a crapshoot for quarterback selection. Less than 40% of first rounders became Super Bowl-type quarterbacks. And all of those players – except Lamar – were drafted within the top seven selections.
One More Thing
Joe Burrow is in the Ravens way for at least ten more years. No need to worry about Kenny Pickett or DeShaun Watson. Burrow is the two-ton gorilla in the division. You have to get past him to get to the Super Bowl. And he is elite (sorry, Mr. Flacco). If the Ravens elect to move on from Lamar, are they willing to fall further behind the Bengals, at least for a year or two?
Ravens Lamar Decision – Part 1 Conclusion
So this is the framework. Your goal as a GM is to have a Super Bowl-caliber quarterback on your team. The Ravens currently have one. If you choose to move him off of your team – for whatever reason – the odds of getting another one are not favorable. Then there’s the real-life, personal pragmatic consideration. If you’re Eric DeCosta and you care about job security, are you prepared to trade your franchise quarterback and roll the dice in the draft?
Because the future is unknowable, if the Ravens opt towards replacing Lamar, they will go from the comparative certainty of having a Super Bowl-type quarterback (warts and all, which I’ll get into in the next blog), to the complete uncertainty of selecting a rookie to replace him.
By the way, this is not to forecast my own conclusion regarding the sign or trade Lamar decision. I’m holding off on that judgment until the end of these couple of blog pieces. Next up, in the Ravens Lamar decision analysis, the case for signing Lamar.
