There is an improving outlook for the 2022 Ravens heading into the Giants game. But there are a few enduring warts too. Here are a few idle observations.
Improving Outlook – Ronnie Stanley
The wait on Ronnie Stanley finally paid off last week. Stanley looked good. He was pretty clean in pass protect and made an impact in the run game across his 22 plays. Optimism now applies here. The positive domino effect from a healthy Stanley over the balance of the season could be significant. The left side of the line becomes solidified. The blind side becomes a strength. And the Ravens need it, given Lamar’s increasing propensity to hold the ball an extra tick (or even two).
Ben Powers is locked in at left guard. The mystery of Ben Cleveland rolls on, as the injury bug has bitten him again. I have to reluctantly concede that Cleveland just is not reliable at any level until he proves otherwise. This is frustrating to say the least. To my mind Cleveland continues to offer much more upside than Powers, but it looks like it just isn’t meant to be.
Nevertheless, the Ravens could wind up with a superior left tackle, center and right guard, an adequate right tackle, and a middling left guard. In the league today, that’s pretty good. With the way Pat Ricard is blocking (no, destroying people), Lamar should experience the best pocket time of his career. Which leads me to . . .
Lamar Jackson
Here’s the thing. Dude, if you want a fully guaranteed contract, it’s not too much to ask you to throw the football accurately! Lamar just doesn’t do it against the best defenses. His deep ball miss in the Bengals game was particularly tragic on the heave to Tylan Wallace. Greg Roman brilliantly set up that play call, which worked to perfection. Lamar’s miss by two country miles isn’t acceptable. That’s seven points the Bengals handed him (game over, by the way) and Lamar refused to take them.
If you can’t throw accurately on gimme six point plays, you’re not worth a fully guaranteed deal, no matter your athletic dynamism. Lamar’s inaccuracy forced Roman to call Lamar run plays on the last drive to pull out the win. Again, these play calls were well conceived and Roman deserves a salute for his work in the Bengals game. But here we are yet again relying on Lamar’s brilliant running skills.
Jackson regularly held the ball too long in both the Bills and Bengals games. These better defenses just don’t permit wideouts to run as freely as the lesser defenses. Lamar has to recognize the defensive coverages better. He has to better understand more quickly where the ball should go. And it still would serve him well to diversify his targets. Yet again, Mark Andrew had almost as many targets (ten) in the Bengals game as the wide receiver group in the aggregate (13). I get it, maybe you’re not thrilled distributing targets to Proche, Robinson, and Wallace (six total targets). But soon enough – perhaps this week – defenses are going to take Mark Andrews away. Then what?
Improving Outlook – The Running Game
J.K. Dobbins looked a bit better in the Bengals game. Even Kenyan Drake looked crisp and sharp. Whenever Justice Hill gets back, the Ravens should have a solid – if not strong – diversified group. There’s good reason for optimism here.
One of my game plan complaints with Greg Roman has been his failure to regularly incorporate the running backs in his passing attack. We’ve seen a total of 17 targets to the backs over the first five game, about 12% of the total targets. His reluctance has been understandable given the left tackle issues.
But with Stanley’s return and hopefully increasingly strong play, Roman needs to add this weapon to the attack. There is a lot that could be done here – some wheel routes, a slant or two from wide positions, maybe even the dreaded screen pass. I’m looking for this element to grow, particularly if Rashod Bateman continues to be slowed by the injury monster. And it’s an easy way to add diversity away from Andrews.
Improving Outlook – Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey
Defensively, the Bengals game played out much as I anticipated. A lot of press coverage underneath by the two cover corners, with various zone schemes over the top and occasionally mixed in underneath too. Peters in particular looked very good, and with that zone protection mostly over the top his weakness – turn-and-run speed – is less so. This gives him more time to regain his full explosion.
Marlon Humphrey is also playing much better. Tighter coverages when called upon, and much more solid tackling. These two guys are getting closer to what we hoped would happen. Two higher end cover corners. And Peters as always brings the fire that is lacking from other Ravens defenders.
You could see this train coming down the track at you, which was why I believed the secondary was going to wind up as a strength. There’s clearly an improving outlook here. Pepe Williams’ heavy snap count (75% of the defensive plays) in the slot was also predictable, as his play has been strong from day one. The arrows are pointing up.
But then the injury monster bit really hard, wiping out Marcus Williams for the foreseeable future. If it wasn’t for bad luck the Ravens would have none. Good lord, they’ve lost both of their top free agent signings and we’re only five games into the season. Williams was by far the best defender on the field for the Ravens and the Ravens were headed to having a great secondary. But Williams’ loss leads us to . . .
Frog or Prince? – Kyle Hamilton
The Ravens just don’t trust Hamilton to this point. Marcus Williams played 46% of the snaps in the Bengals game (29 out of 63 defensive plays). Geno Stone saw 35 snaps on defense. Kyle Hamilton had just 14, his season low – in spite of the loss of Williams.
Hamilton was the 14th player selected in the draft. Of all the first round selections, only two players have played less (picks 31 and 32). The learning curve has apparently been quite steep for Hamilton, which must come as a big surprise for the Ravens. His generally poor play when called upon hasn’t helped. 
How much will he play going forward? As readers know I have real doubts about Hamilton. But doubts notwithstanding, I thought his role would have increased in the Bengals game. Yet it contracted, even with Williams going down.
In concept, a player selected at 14 should be playing mostly full-time, particularly in light of the Williams injury. Mike Macdonald must be a bit nervous here, as there’s just no way he can feel that the Stone-Hamilton combination is a strength. Will Macdonald rely on Brandon Stephens on the back-end instead? Will the Ravens elevate Ar’Darius Washington off of the practice squad this week? We can only hope Hamilton gets the princess’ kiss soon!
Wart Winner – Patrick Queen
I promised myself that I wouldn’t write a single word about Queen this week. But I failed. Don’t get fooled by his big interception. It was a key play in the game. But Queen was otherwise awful last week. I’m going to get back on my Tyus Bowser-to-the-inside platform real soon, especially if David Ojabo really is able to take the field a few weeks from now as a situational pass rusher.
Improving Outlook – Edge Linebackers
On balance, Jason Pierre-Paul has been terrific under the circumstances. He’s really helped. If the Ravens can get Justin Houston back on the field in the near term, the Pierre-Paul, Oweh, Houston trio becomes competitive. Perhaps Ojabo joins the group in November, then the pass rush could actually be effective. If the Ravens elect to keep Bowser on the edge, this group could offer real upside as the season wears on.
Odafe Oweh has to get better bend into his body. He plays too upright, yet his athleticism should permit him to play with better leverage. I’m watching for this type of improvement because I think it’s the key to whether he can become a top quartile, or even decile, edge defender.
John Harbaugh and Decision Making
I was totally on-board with Harbaugh’s decision to take the field goal on fourth and one in the Bengals game. The Ravens have Justin Tucker. Take the points he automatically gives you. Up 13-10 in the fourth quarter, it was reasonable to believe that the Bengals could score seven. If the Ravens failed on the fourth down, a Bengals touchdown would have forced the Ravens to score seven in response. But once they took the three points to put the game at 16-10, they only had to gain 35-40 yards after a touchback to give Tucker a high probability to win the game. Clearly the right move.
A last comment on the so-called advance analytics. In football, unlike in baseball, there are almost unquantifiable variables in every down, distance, score, and time situation. When John Harbaugh contemplated the fourth and one field goal, was it really relevant to just look at the output of similar down, distance, score, and time situations? Do you not adjust for the kicker? Do you not adjust for who is on the field for you on both offense and defense? Should a coach adjust for how his offense and defense are playing, as well as the opponent? Do you take weather conditions into account? And a multitude of other factors.
Remember this. Statistical references in football decision-making situations are merely the aggregated output of prior actual decisions. That’s it. They tell you very little about the variables that applied underneath each decision – i.e., they tell you very little about the inputs. And they should be seen in that light.
There’s an improving outlook for the Ravens. Keep it going!
