The non-exclusive tender to Lamar was perhaps a surprise to outsiders. But it tells us a great deal about Lamar’s likely future and how the Ravens have gauged that future. No doubt the Ravens had a very good sense that other owners have little taste for fully guaranteed contracts. There might be a legal issue brewing here (collusion is a tough case to make). But if Lamar has been unwilling to come off of his fully guaranteed negotiating position (which he must be at this point), there’s no better way for him to learn the illusion of such a contract then by talking to other teams. Which he is now free to do.
Early news reports suggest that Mr. Quixote is tilting at windmills. Seemingly, every team that should have interest in Lamar is unwilling to engage him. It’s a loud and universal rejection of the fully guaranteed demand. Presuming no team actually steps forward with a fully guaranteed deal, where will that leave Jackson?
Lamar’s Choices if Teams Reject a Fully Guaranteed Contract
As I see it Lamar has three choices if no one will offer him what he wants.
Non-Exclusive Tender – The Temper Tantrum
Lamar could have the temper-tantrum reaction that some (fools) recommend. He could hold out, not go to training camp, and not sign the non-exclusive tender until the last possible minute. Objectively, there’s no benefit to this approach because the market will have told him that the Ravens bargaining position was not out of line. This approach offers Lamar nothing other than potentially forcing the Ravens to move on from him. It’s an emotional, but not a thoughtful, response.
Non-Exclusive Tender – Engage the Open Market
Second, at some point Lamar could put out the word that he’s willing to drop the fully guaranteed demand. He could solicit more generally for the best possible offer. If he pursues that path I would expect numerous proposals from other teams.
From Lamar’s perspective, this makes the most sense and creates the best scenario for him maximizing his value. Once Lamar has a written offer, he has found the team that definitely wants him. The Ravens then have five days to match it. And they would do so, in all probability, even if they don’t want to. If the offer is unacceptable from their perspective, the Ravens would try to work out a trade to that team netting them more than the two first round picks to which they are entitled under the non-exclusive tender rules. Similarly, they could not match the offer but try to work out a deal within the five day window.
Engage the Market – The “Onerous” Offer
Of course, it might not be so simple as that. The soliciting team could insert onerous terms (from the Ravens perspective, terms they couldn’t match) in the offer that could force the Ravens to cut players, or worse. There are scenarios where they could be forced to let Lamar go, which is the calculated risk they have accepted. But Lamar would be in control here. We would see how well Eric DeCosta and the Ravens have handled Lamar’s ego.
If Lamar simply wants to use a third party offer to force the Ravens to up the ante – because he wants to stay with the Ravens – he would not accept an onerous term in the offer sheet. On the other hand, he could force the Ravens to accept his departure by agreeing to the onerous term. And the Ravens would be stuck with getting just the two first rounders.
This outcome would be particularly acute for the Ravens if Lamar’s third party onerous offer is received after the 2023 draft. In that situation, the Ravens could lose Lamar and not have anyone other than Tyler Huntley as a starting quarterback in 2023. Unless, of course, they draft someone – which raises all kinds of risks to their 2023 draft strategy. I’ll address that at some later point, but the Ravens need to resolve Lamar before the draft. Yes, the Ravens would get two first rounders in this case for subsequent seasons. But that wouldn’t save 2023. And yes, Lamar is free to negotiate well beyond the draft.
Non-Exclusive Tender – The Bird Comes Home to Roost
In the third scenario Lamar decides to come back home to the Ravens. He accepts the message from the market, and realizes that no team was even willing to engage on a fully guaranteed concept. He sees that the (purported) Ravens prior offer was in fact fair and reasonable given the actual marketplace. The Ravens then get a deal done at a 2023 salary cap figure (say, around $25 million) that allows them to build out the rest of their 2023 team. But this needs to happen relatively soon because free agency starts next week.
The Lamar Reset
Lamar inevitably will have to reset his position. He can demand a fully guaranteed deal all he wants. But if no one is willing to offer it, he should maximize his value as the market perceives it. Sure, this involves his ego. Is he wise enough to let his ego go and deal with the market such as it is? We will soon see. Is there a sleeper team out there (the Colts?) willing to give him a fully guaranteed deal? The tea leaves suggest no, but one never knows until the negotiating window is actually open. And if a team makes such an offer, would the Ravens match it and then try to work out a trade?
On balance, the Ravens non-exclusive tender was the best approach. It was well calculated based on scouting out the rest of the league. It allows them to build a team for 2023. It is not without risk, and there are bad outcomes possible for the Ravens. But, it increases the odds that Lamar winds up back with the team. Oh, to be Eric DeCosta.
Fascinating as always –
I think Lamar’s ego has most likely been damaged for what’s its worth