We are in for a busy next few months. The Ravens have over 20 of their own free agents, and little salary cap space as we sit here today. There are plenty of player personnel moves to make. Let’s dive right into a few issues in this Ravens Off Season Issues post.
Ravens Off Season Issues – Effective Salary Cap Space
There can be a lot of confusion when it comes to salary cap space, which can be a complicated subject. I focus on “effective salary cap space,” which is the available cap space a team has after signing at least 51 players and its projected rookie class. Right now, the Ravens are expected to have eight draft picks. When combined with the top 51 players contracts, the Ravens effective salary cap space is approximately $4.3 million.
That’s not a lot of cap space going into the offseason. Let’s take a look at how the Ravens can create additional space.
Cutting Players and Re-Working Existing Contracts
There’s not as much to talk about here, unlike in previous seasons.
Tyus Bowser
There are comparatively few player release options available to the Ravens for creating additional cap space. The obvious cut is releasing Tyus Bowser, which creates $5.5 million of additional space, putting the Ravens at $9.8 million. Bowser’s mysterious absence throughout all of 2023 makes it easy to release him. The “old-Bowser” would be a bargain at $5.5 million. The mysterious Bowser is not worth it.
After Bowser it becomes much trickier, as there are only five other players whose release would create further meaningful cap space. Let’s take a closer look at this group.
Other Possible Cuts
This five man group (with additional cap space listed) consists of:
Ronnie Stanley = $8.3 million
Morgan Moses = $5.5 million
Mark Andrews = $5.1 million
Pat Mekari = $4.3 million
Pat Ricard = $4.0 million
I’ll obviously ignore Mark Andrews, and I think Pat Mekari is a steal at $4.3 million.
This puts the focus squarely on the two starting tackles. My initial reaction was the release of Moses, who will be 33 next year and suffered through some injuries this year. But Moses otherwise had a typical Moses year. He remained very productive in the run game, retaining the ability to pull and pulverize. In pass protect, struggles with speed rushers continued but Moses otherwise held his own. Plus, I don’t believe Daniel Faalele is ready to step in full-time, certainly not at Moses’ level.
Ronnie Stanley: Release or Restructure?
Now let’s take a closer look at Ronnie Stanley’s salary cap situation and performance. For one, we all know that Ronnie struggled mightily for most of the season in pass protect, particularly against speed. Stanley improved a bit in the season’s last fourth anchoring against bull rushers, though he had continuing struggles against top opponents.
Stanley will be 30 next year. His 2024 salary is $11 million. He is also entitled to a regular roster bonus of $4 million, for total actual cash outlays of $15 million. That entire amount is included in Stanley’s $26 million 2024 cap number. Stanley’s $4 million roster bonus is due on March 18 (i.e., if he’s on the roster on that date, the bonus is earned).
Cap Impact of Stanley’s Release
Releasing Stanley before March 18 creates an additional $8.3 million of cap space. That’s a nice chunk of space. But to state the obvious, his release either slots Pat Mekari as the full-time left tackle in 2024, or shoves the Ravens into the left tackle market (by draft or free agency). And in a year where they have over 20 of their own free agents (lots of slots to fill), creating a new, substantial opening for a major starting position seems unwise. We can fairly debate whether Stanley should be retained. But it’s not so easy to find a replacement.
Cap Impact of Restructuring Stanley’s 2024 Compensation
The alternative is restructuring Stanley’s 2024 compensation. I think it’s safe to say that if the Ravens released Stanley, no other team will pay him the $15 million in cash he is due from Baltimore. I don’t think Stanley will command $10 million on the market. He’s probably somewhere between $5 and $8 million on a one-year deal, perhaps with incentives. I believe Stanley wants to stay in Baltimore, for a lot of reasons. It makes sense for both sides for Stanley to take a significant pay cut from the Ravens. It would be a pay cut in name only as he’s not going to get the eliminated money anywhere else. Let’s guess the Ravens can wind up at a $7 million salary for Stanley in 2024.
In that eventuality, the Ravens save $8 million against the cap and still have Stanley for the 2024 season. The savings roughly equal what an outright release yields without losing the player.
The NFL also has what’s known as a post-June 1 release date, which yields different results for salary cap purposes. I’m not going to get into the weeds on that, but suffice it to say that a post-June 1 release designation for Stanley does not help the Ravens at all when free agency begins in March.
Ravens Off Season Issues -Any Other Releases?
Under the above approach, Stanley remains on the team, and the Ravens wind up with $17.8 of cap space. That then leaves decisions on Moses and Pat Ricard. I believe it remains possible that the Ravens release Moses. Right tackles are easier to find, either in the draft, via possible releases from other teams later in free agency, or by turning to Faalele. I’ll discuss available free agents in one of my next posts. Regular free agency is another possible, though unlikely, right tackle solution.
I love Pat Ricard as a player. But is he worth a $5.1 million cap number? He played quite a bit less in 2024 given the Ravens’ new-found focus on using eleven personnel (three wide receivers). Ricard is due $4 million in cash salary in 2024, the last year of his contract. I don’t think there’s much by way of restructuring possibility here; it’s either keep him or cut him.
One Obvious Contract Restructuring
Marcus Williams is due a $12 million salary in 2024. Williams’ contract has three years remaining. By re-designating roughly $10.8 million of that salary as bonus ($1.12 million is the league minimum salary for a seven-plus year veteran), the Ravens create approximately $7.2 million of additional cap space. This is a no-brainer. It’s an accounting entry only, and costs neither the team nor the player any cash.
Salary Cap – Final Possible Tally
Thus, the Ravens could wind up with $25 million of effective cap space. Here’s the math summarized:
Beginning cap space = $4.3 million
Bowser release adds = $5.5 million
Stanley restructure adds = $8.0 million
Williams restructure adds = $7.2 million
Ending cap space = $25 million
This is actually a fairly easy path if Ronnie Stanley is realistic. A release of either Moses and/or Ricard adds to the above total.
One Early Free Agent Comment
I’ll get to all of the Ravens free agents in the next post. But for now, they have to make a decision on/with Kevin Zeitler by February 19, 2024. For technical reasons, if they sign him after that date, the Ravens will have to add $4.2 million of cap space onto whatever cap number is created by a new contract. Thus, a decision on Zeitler in the next week is paramount.
Super Bowl
The 49ers were outcoached. Poor blitz anticipation by Shanahan on the offensive side. And poor zone concepts by defensive coordinator Steve Wilks on the last two offensive drives by the Chiefs.
By the way, because the Super Bowl champs typically open the NFL season on Thursday night with a home game, the Ravens – the best home opponent on the Chiefs 2024 schedule – could be that game.
