In this part two (of three – see part 1 here) of the Ravens roster construction for 2022 I focus on two concepts. First, selecting the Ravens’ best strategic approach to the free agent market. Second, identifying the players I would target and why. But before I go there, let’s keep in mind a few considerations.
First, how much cap space do the Ravens need to have available to retain their own free agents for the 2023 season? The answer there is, not much. Given DeCosta’s poor 2019 draft, it is likely that only Marquise Brown will receive a second contract. As a result, the Ravens cap space for 2023 should be substantial, certainly materially more than this year. The 2023 league salary cap is currently is estimated to increase significantly.
Second, because the Ravens will have few of their own to retain in 2023, they will likely not be in line for substantial compensatory draft picks for the 2024 season. This is important because, if the Ravens elect to pursue free agents in 2022 (excluding cap casualty free agents) then they could wind up with few or no compensatory draft picks in both 2023 and 2024. And we know a cornerstone of the Ravens draft approach is the accumulation of extra picks.
So, there are significant cross-currents at play here as the Ravens approach the 2022 free agent market.
Cap Space Availability
In part one of this Ravens roster construction analysis, I concluded that the Ravens would likely have approximately $17.5 million of cap space available. Yet, the Lamar contract situation still looms over the team. I would be remiss to ignore a scenario where they get that extension done, in which case 2022 cap space could balloon to somewhere near $30 million. Therefore, I’ll be looking at two scenarios: cap space around $17.5 million, and cap space around $30 million.
The balance of this part two of the Ravens roster construction is an analysis of free agent possibilities at the positions of major need for the Ravens.
Free Agent Targets – Major Position Targets
There are three absolutely critical positional needs – offensive tackle, edge rusher, and free safety. At these positions, the Ravens must acquire elite talent. Cap casualty players could be added to this list and might change the analysis.
Ravens Roster Construction 2022 – Offensive Tackle
Right now the Ravens have Ronnie Stanley, Patrick Mekari and Ja’Wuan James on the roster. Stanley’s situation is obviously the big unknown. Will he be available in 2022 and, if so, what will he bring to the table? It’s so critical that DeCosta get this judgment correct in 2022 (having blown it in 2021). If the Ravens have a high confidence level in Stanley’s return, then a free agent addition becomes less pressing. The Ravens would then look to the draft for tackle depth. But let’s be realistic. It’s hard to imagine that DeCosta will have a high degree of confidence come the mid-March free agency scramble. This is the place where judgment is critical.
Nevertheless, I don’t think free agency at the tackle position will provide much of a quandary. The list of available players is not enticing. At the top of the price range is likely Cam Robinson of the Jaguars. I’m not a fan; I think Robinson is a middling player whose price range will be prohibitive even if the Ravens were interested (I doubt it). Scratch Robinson.
I would not entertain Eric Fisher, whose age, injury history, and performance scream “avoid me.” Trent Brown offers some value, but he also has a major durability concern, and the Ravens went through enough of that in 2022. Duane Brown is 37.
But then there’s Morgan Moses. Granted, Moses is 31 so he’s not an ideal target by any means. A solid player, Moses never misses a game. The interesting bit here is that if the Ravens released the 30-year old James, they would save $3 million in cap space. Do they consider Moses an upgrade over James? I’m not sure, but James’ capability is unknown given his injury status. Swapping out James for Moses at, say, an additional $2 million of cap space might be doable if Moses fails to attract bigger interest. This is not inconceivable. But I don’t consider swapping James for Moses will be a major focus. It’s something you do at the margin.
There won’t be a major free agency move at the tackle position.
Edge Rusher
The big names here are Von Miller and Chandler Jones. I’m not interested in either, given their ages (33 and 32). Jadeveon Clowney, a bit younger (29), is also a player in this grouping. Though he’s strong at holding the edge, he lacks elite pass rushing skills.
The Targets
Then there’s the three man group of Haason Reddick (28), Harold Landry (26), and Emmanuel Ogbah (29). Each player offers pass rushing ability. Landry is a steady performer but not an elite rusher. Reddick has had a strong past two seasons, ranking fifth in the league in sacks and 18th in quarterback hits. He almost never misses a game. Ogbah has been very productive the last two years, though I don’t see him as a great scheme fit.
So how much might these players cost from a cap perspective? Matt Judon’s deal last year with the Patriots provides some insight. Judon signed a four year, $54.4 million contract. He received an $18 million signing bonus, with $32 million guaranteed. In year one (2021) the contract was structured such that his cap figure was just $6.3 million. Judon was 28 years old when he signed.
I don’t think Reddick is quite the overall player that Judon is. He was a free agent last year and didn’t garner much interest. But he’s been a productive pass rusher. And he had a strong 2021. It’s reasonable to expect that the market will offer a Judon-like contract, though I think Reddick’s worth a little less.
Now Landry is younger and, in my view, a more complete player than Reddick. He’s a strong pass rusher but not elite. Because of his age and more complete profile, I’d expect him to command a little better deal than Reddick. Leonard Floyd might be a relevant comparison. Last year Floyd, 28 at the time, signed a four year deal. His year one cap number was $5.5 million, a bit lower than Judon. But subsequent year cap numbers for Floyd are higher than Judon’s.
The Edge Rusher Decision
Let’s take a step back and see where the Ravens might be at the edge position. They invested a first round pick in Odafe Oweh last year, who figures to be a three down player in 2022. To this point Oweh lacks elite pass rushing skill. Whether he can improve remains to be seen.
They invested a fifth rounder in Daelin Hayes, who essentially missed the entire season. Tyus Bowser tore his achilles but has a very Ravens-favorable contract. With this group, the Ravens need to add two more edge players. I could see adding either Landry (my preference) or Reddick at, say, a $6-$7 million cap figure. Then, they could also go after a high-ceiling edge rusher at the top of the draft, or look for a diamond in the rough in the middle of the draft.
By the way, I don’t see the Ravens pursuing Randy Gregory. Arguably a cheaper option, character and discipline on the field are major problems with Gregory.
Free Safety
No doubt there are three quality free safeties in free agency.
The choices here are Tyrann Mathieu (turns 30 this year), Jessie Bates (25), and Marcus Williams (26). Mathieu is the best player of the three, offering elite big play-making and both free safety and box capability – a perfect situational fit for the Ravens. But at 30, Mathieu is entering into that point in a career where age begins to take its toll. A Mathieu buyer might have some concern whether Mathieu can fulfill the terms of a four or five year deal at a high performance level.
Williams is more of a pure free safety than Mathieu, which to my mind is not a limitation. He’s missed only five games in his five year career and would be a solid fit for the Ravens. Bates has been a little more flexible in use than Williams but has been excellent on the back end. He would be an outstanding fit for the Ravens. But at 25, I expect the Bengals will franchise Bates. If they don’t, surely the Ravens would have interest.
Even though Mathieu might be the best of the group right now, I’d prefer Bates and Williams because of age. But are any of these players Ravens-affordable?
Consider this. By way of comparison, Harrison Smith of the Vikings signed a four year $64 million contract extension before the start of last year. Contract terms included a $9.5 million signing bonus with $26.3 million guaranteed. For 2021 Smith’s cap figure was $6.9 million ($1 million base salary, $1.9 million prorated signing bonus and $3.8 million in roster bonus). His cap number balloons to $13.4 million in 2022 and $17.2 million in 2023.
Smith was 32 years old when he signed this contract extension. It’s reasonable to believe that a Mathieu deal will be somewhat above the Smith range, given his age and, in my view, higher talent level. I’m thinking a year-one cap figure of $7.5 to $8 million.
At age 25, however, Bates should wind up significantly above the Smith range, with Williams right behind him. A year one cap number in the range of $10 million for either player is not out of the question.
The Free Safety Decision
In the absence of the Ravens getting a deal done with Lamar Jackson, Bates and Williams will likely consume too much of the Ravens 2022 cap. Now I’m not considering free safety options that might be available in the draft (as the Ravens certainly are), particularly in the early rounds. No doubt this is a major consideration as the Ravens evaluate how to attack the free safety position. But what is clear is this: if Lamar is not extended, the Ravens roster construction in 2022 will become more difficult if they make an expensive free agency splash (Bates or Williams) at free safety. Depth will suffer. And though they could likely get Mathieu at a workable 2022 cap figure, will it be worth the much higher cap levels they will have to accept in future years?
Mathieu has shown no signs of let-down so far. And he’s not 32, like Harrison Smith. For the Ravens, I believe it is worth the risk of dead cap money on the back years of a four-year Mathieu deal. This is not Earl Thomas redux. Mathieu is a better player now than Thomas was when signed by the Ravens. And a much better locker room presence.
If the Ravens don’t sign Lamar, there’s a good case that they should sign Mathieu provided I’m not way under where the market takes his cap number. If they extend Lamar, then I argue Mathieu-money and a little more spent on Williams makes better long-term sense. Either way, this takes free safety off of the 2022 draft board.
Ravens Roster Construction 2022 – Summary
With $17.5 million or so of cap space, the Ravens just aren’t in a position to sign both an impactful edge rusher and a free safety. It would likely be a choice between Landry and Mathieu. Again, I haven’t yet studied draft prospects at these positions so that’s a major consideration. But if forced to choose one or the other, I’d focus on Mathieu, who I believe will make a greater impact for the Ravens’ back end than Landry could at the line of scrimmage. Or, the Ravens could fairly conclude that, given their many holes, they can’t spend $7 million or so of cap space on any one player.
On the other hand, if the Ravens extend Jackson and have $30 million to spend, then they certainly could go after Williams at safety and have plenty left to complete their roster. Or, they could sign both Landry and Mathieu. Or maybe even reach to sign Landry and Williams. Anything is possible at that point, which illustrates how meaningful a Jackson extension could be.
What do you think?
