Part 1 of my Ravens Big Board (found here) outlined where I think the Ravens should go if they draft a player at Pick 22. Part 2 of the Ravens Big Board will set forth a round-by-round view of who I think the Ravens could/should target. But a couple of other thoughts came to mind that I decided to put out in this Big Board Part 1 Supplement
More On Round One – The Quarterbacks and Lamar Jackson
What will happen with the quarterbacks in round one of the draft? I’d be shocked if Bryce Young is not the first pick. He’s simply the best quarterback in this class at this point. Do the Texans draft a quarterback at pick 2? Then what?
There’s no point in speculating about trades for quarterback prospects. That conversation is just a merry-go-round of confusion. But there are two similar questions to consider. First, after the Titans have selected at pick 11, and assuming the Texans did not draft a quarterback at pick 2, are either Anthony Richardson or C.J. Stroud still available?
The Texans’ Quarterback Strategy and Lamar
Why focus there? Because in that situation I could imagine the Texans, with pick 12, considering trading for Lamar Jackson. It’s a reasonably good strategy for Houston. Take the best defensive player in the draft at selection two, and then do one of three things.
First, use your pick 12 to trade back up and snatch either Anthony Richardson, Will Levis, or C.J. Stroud. Or, second, use your pick 12 on a non-quarterback and play for the Caleb Williams sweepstakes in 2024 (though that’s a tough bet because the Texans have so many high picks this year and are bound to be better in 2023). Or, third, use your pick 12 and trade for Lamar Jackson.
In the third situation, the Ravens absolutely must listen if Richardson is still on the Board. And maybe Stroud too. Yes, the Ravens would undoubtedly sacrifice 2023 if they swap for Richardson. In that case they’d probably either just throw Richardson into the waters and see how he swims, and/or go get Teddy Bridgewater as a stop-gap until they think Richardson is ready.
Which Leads to a Lamar Rant . . .
But in the larger picture, the Ravens would unburden themselves from the whole Jackson albatross/spectacle/hell, whatever. They would completely reset their salary cap situation for the next four years. And, they would come out with a bounty of draft capital, both this year and in 2024.
At heart, the base question for the Ravens is this: do they really believe that Jackson can take them to a Super Bowl in the next four or five seasons at a monster multi-year contract number that they don’t want to pay? I’ve made several attempts to address the Lamar situation. His contract stance with the Ravens at this point makes so little sense (unless he has something worked out post-draft) that it’s difficult to fathom how we get there.
Of all the top quarterbacks in the league who have signed big contracts, the Ravens are stuck with the only player who is so selfish that he doesn’t care how difficult he is making it for the team to build around him. Jalen Hurts was wise enough to figure out that “it takes a village” to make a championship team. As he put it “money is nice, championships are better.” But Lamar is not that guy, pure and simple. He’s money-selfish, period. And as any everyday football fan will tell you, we’re just talking crazy money at these levels anyway. As Lamar put it, he wants to be a billionaire. Now that’s the guy to build your team around in a hard salary cap sport!
Want another example of this money selfishness? Allegedly, Lamar told the Ravens to go out and get Odell Beckham and DeAndre Hopkins, and then he’ll sign. But the Ravens can’t acquire Hopkins unless Lamar has already signed, freeing up the necessary cap space to get Hopkins. Yup, that’s the Ravens leader.
Will Anyone Else Trade for Lamar During the Draft?
I think not. For the Colts, it they want Lamar their best strategy is likely to draft a non-quarterback at pick four and then sign Lamar after the draft. The Commanders just don’t have enough cap space to force the Ravens’ hand. The Lions? Don’t bet on it. Could the Falcons jump in? Who knows.
For that matter, I wouldn’t bet on the Texans’ scenario either. Maybe there’s a 20% probability they go in that direction. It would excite their fans, no doubt. But if it doesn’t happen, the Ravens remain in what appears to be an unescapable situation.
More on Round One – Wide Receivers
If the Ravens wind up drafting one of the wide receivers in round one (in that eventuality, hopefully Flowers), it would be no surprise if they then trade Devin Duvernay. The more I think about it, if the top three receivers on this team become Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham Jr., and Zay Flowers, where exactly does Duvernay fit in? On the punt and kickoff units.
Duvernay is in the last year of his rookie contract. Sitting here today, it’s hard to see the Ravens re-signing him unless he gets starter opportunities in 2023 and produces. Duvernay’s cap number for this season is $4.5 million. That’s just way too much for your fourth receiver (at best; Agholor might be seen as the fourth). If they trade Duvernay, they create $4.3 million of cap space. And there are quite a few post-May 1 free agent targets that the Ravens could use that money to pursue. I’ll address that post-draft.
Given all of this, if the Ravens draft a wide receiver in round one, I think they will do their best to trade Duvernay during the draft. What’s he worth? Probably a sixth rounder. Or maybe a fifth rounder in the 2024 draft. The only possible variable in that situation is if the Ravens draft Quentin Johnston, who will definitely play on the outside. I don’t think that changes the core analysis of trading Duvernay, but it could create more opportunities in the slot for Duvernay.
More on Round One – Should They Go Out on a Limb at Pick 22?
I did not do a player report on Brian Branch, the 5’11 and 190 pound safety from Alabama. Branch had a very successful college career playing largely in the slot. He’s a player who has excellent quickness in the short areas where slot corners live. He is very aware, has a high level of understanding both with run and pass plays, is a very good tackler, and is very instinctive. Branch has been effective both in man coverages and zones.
Now Branch is by no means an elite athlete. He ran an ordinary 4.58 forty and otherwise had testing that was average at best. And he by no means has the body size you like for playing around the line. Though he’s listed as a safety, he rarely played on the back end in college, living almost exclusively in the slot and in the box.
If everyone on my first round list is gone, should the Ravens draft Branch and make him their slot corner? NFL offenses play three or more wide receivers on slightly more than 50% of their plays. I see Branch just as a slot corner at this point, with different skills than Kyle Hamilton brought last year. He obviously lacks Hamilton’s size, and you wouldn’t expect Branch to be batting down balls at the line of scrimmage. Would Branch be on the field 75% of the time? Because if the Ravens can’t play him at least that much, he’s just not worth selecting at pick 22. It’s all a matter of how Mike Mcdonald would use him. I’d go in a different direction.
