Everyone touches on this subject. That won’t stop me from throwing in my two cents regarding each free agent. The big names are arguably the easiest. So, who to keep, part one?
Justin Madubuike – Yes
This is the easiest one. The Ravens will franchise Madubuike, likely by using the “non-exclusive” franchise tag label. This is what the Ravens used with Lamar Jackson last season. It allows Madubuike to negotiate with other teams. It also grants the Ravens a right to match any offer (each of its terms), failing which it grants the Ravens two first round draft picks as compensation from the signing team. Madubuike’s salary under this tag is the greater of (i) the average of the top five salaries at his position over the last five years, or (ii) 120% of his previous salary.
By using the non-exclusive tag the Ravens will be able to negotiate a longer-term deal with Madubuike. As it did with Lamar, this tag likely cools interest from potential suitors, who may be reluctant to both pay Madubuike and surrender two first rounders. But I’d be shocked (and it would be malpractice) if the Ravens let Madubuike get away.
Patrick Queen – No
Queen is gone. That’s why the Ravens drafted Trenton Simpson last year. Queen gave the Ravens all he had and was, by all accounts, a great teammate. Selfishly, Ravens fans will root for a suitor willing to pay Queen to play strong-side linebacker, which would mean a bigger contract for Queen. The bigger the contract, the greater the likelihood the Ravens will reap a high compensatory pick for Queen (subject to a variety of other factors).
Queen found his niche as a weakside linebacker next to Roquan Smith. He still made mental mistakes, and still had his challenges in coverage. He turned into a solid player in his narrower role, but is not a star in my view. We wish him well (unless he winds up in Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, or Cleveland!).
Kevin Zeitler – No
I realize this might not be the popular reaction in the blab-o-sphere, particularly given the possible fates of other starters on the offensive line. But here’s my thinking.
For one, Zeitler will be 34 next season, and I don’t love giving contracts to 34 year old linemen. Second, although I thought Zeitler had a strong season as a pass blocker (a 3.3% pressure rate yielded on 574 passing snaps), he didn’t look nearly as effective to me as a run blocker this year. Third, Zeitler had some injury issues towards the end of the year, and I worry more about this as players reach his age.
Yet, the cap room cost for Zeitler will be much less than the current expected crop of guard free agents. As I pointed out in the previous blog, the Ravens have a matter of days to decide on Zeitler. The fate of John Simpson has to also be considered in the context of Zeitler, as I see the Ravens moving on from Simpson. (See below).
Who are the alternatives to Zeitler? At this point, there are two guards scheduled to hit free agency who, as players, I prefer over Zeitler. This is without taking cap space into consideration.
One is Robert Hunt of the Dolphins, who I had graded very highly as a guard prospect for the Ravens in 2020. The 6’6 335 pound Hunt will be 28 at the start of the season. He is a much better run blocker at this point than Zeitler. He holds his own in pass protection, yielding five pressures on 329 pass snaps in 2023 (a 1.52% rate, actually better than Zeitler). Could, and would, the Ravens sign Hunt in free agency? I’ll answer the second question later if they don’t sign Zeitler. But they could probably get Hunt for a year one cap number of, say, $7 million.
The other free agent who could be available is Kevin Dotson, who might command more than Hunt. Dotson had a terrific year as a run blocker playing in a gap-dependent scheme. He remains a very solid pass protector. This was Dotson’s best year by quite a bit. He’s 28. His cap number should be similar to Hunt’s. Even though this is apparently a bumper draft year for offensive linemen, Dotson could reap a contract with a cap number larger than I suspect.
Jadeveon Clowney – Yes
Let me explain. The edge rusher position going into next year is quite a mess. I’ll discuss Odafe Oweh in another post, but I think Oweh is on the verge of a complete breakthrough. I’m likely in the minority on this. But count him on one side. Then what? David Ojabo, as a practical matter, is just a name at this point. He showed distressingly little when he played last year, and the serious injuries speak for themselves. Write down the word “unreliable” next to his name.
Tavius Robinson is just a depth piece, and Malik Hamm is an untested reserve.
Then there are the potential edge free agents, led by Josh Allen, Brian Burns, and Danielle Hunter, each of whom will draw big contracts or franchise tags. Chase Young will also draw some big bucks. Jonathan Greenard is another notable name at this position. Then there’s Za’Darius Smith, Bryce Huff, and some others. How much could interest and money will Clowney draw, in this context, at age 31?
I could envision the Ravens offering Clowney a one-year deal that is structured with a couple of voidable years, ala Odell Beckham, Jr. Personally, I want Clowney back. He was incredibly disruptive, which is how I view him – the type of player who destroys the play called by the offense, oftentimes relying on others to mop up the mess he created. Clowney would likely be a later spring/early summer signing, but I could see him coming back. And I think he would want to, all things being equal. I’ll get more into the edge free agents in another post.
Geno Stone – No
Admittedly, I’m not nearly as big of a Geno Stone fan as others. Yes, he had seven interceptions. But he’s downright atrocious in run defense, and his coverage skills (ex-interceptions) are just average in my view. He’s a smart, hard-working kid who deserves a good payday, but it won’t be here.
Devin Duvernay – No
Do you remember John Harbaugh’s draft room excitement as the Ravens made their selection of Duvernay in the third round? That seems like a distant memory, as the Ravens were unable to unlock much if any of the wide receiver potential they thought they saw in Duvernay. The man had all of nine targets in 2023. I always thought Duvernay had some potential as a slot receiver. He has excellent hands. But it didn’t happen for him, and even with uncertainty at the wide receiver position, it’s hard to see the Ravens wanting him back. Or Duvernay wanting to come back.
Odell Beckham – No, With a Caveat
Yes, Beckham brought a lot of plusses to the 2023 Ravens that weren’t on the field. But his injuries (he missed two games) and lack of top tier production make him just another player at this point in his career. Beckham still has outstanding hands, and the great ability to adjust to the ball. But he wasn’t able to win one-on-one battles this year as often as he had in the past. He’s very effective as a crosser. However, Beckham is not a good red zone target, having a harder time separating in tight space than he did earlier in his career.
Mind you, Beckham is technically not a free agent. But the Ravens will likely have to cut him as a post-June 1 casualty. Would I consider him as a late free agency addition at the right price? Perhaps. Would I rework his existing contract. Perhaps. But he isn’t near the top of my shopping list given the Ravens cap space situation.
John Simpson – No
I see Simpson as an inferior player both in pass protection (26 pressures yielded) and as a run blocker. He had a few good moments in the run game, particularly on the move. But I just don’t love the player. Then add in 11 penalties, and there’s just not much of a case to bring Simpson back. The Ravens have three young guards to choose from for his replacement (Andrew Vorhees may be the early favorite) and/or they can turn to the draft. I see Simpson somewhere else next season.
Part two of Who to Keep will follow soon.
