I don’t put much into the Ravens big early season win against the Bills. That’s almost a season ago. Instead, tape study of the Bills easy win last week against the Broncos, and from their huge win against the Lions in week 15, yielded insights for the Ravens. Let’s dive into that, and a bit more.
Bills Observations – Offensive Running Game
The first thing jumping off the offensive tape is the dominance displayed by the Bills offensive line. It’s a power group, pure and simple, highlighted by excellent play from left tackle Dion Dawkins and right tackle Spencer Brown. The Bills pull either tackle in the direction of the run play. Both of them are adept at doing it, though Brown really jumped off the tape last week against the Broncos. Support from the safeties and corners will be critical to defeat these plays.
James Cook loves to cut back against the grain. Cook combines excellent vision with quick feet, and he will go back as wide as he needs to. The Ravens weakside edge linebacker, whoever he is, must maintain his discipline against Cook to eliminate those cutback lanes. Cook seems equally comfortable inside and outside. The Ravens defensive interior must control the line of scrimmage.
Against the Broncos in particular, Buffalo ran a tremendous number of six-man offensive line plays. They brought an extra offensive lineman on the field on at least 11 plays that I counted while the game was still competitive. They passed the ball only twice out of those 11 occasions. Roughly one-third of the time, they lined up a tight end inside of the extra offensive lineman. Every time they aligned that way, they ran the ball to that side of the field with pitch-outs.
These are very heavy packages, to say the least. Personnel-wise, the Ravens are equipped to handle these plays, and I expect less of that this week. But the Bills will run it.
Josh Allen is very tough in the run game, though most of his runs are scrambles. But in short yardage he will run by design right at a light defensive front.
Bills Observation – Offensive Passing Game
The scariest thing for the Ravens from the offensive tape is the use of running back Ty Johnson in the passing game. Johnson made a sensational touchdown catch down the field against the Broncos. But his deployment as a receiver was much more dramatic in their Lions win. They used him in the slot, they dropped down to him out of the backfield, and he ran a route right through the offensive line and down the middle of the field for a huge gain.
Johnson is a very dangerous receiver out of the backfield. I’ve written twice in the last several weeks regarding my Malik Harrison concerns when lined up as an inside linebacker. The Steelers failed to attack Harrison in the cover game. Against the Bills, the Ravens absolutely cannot allow Harrison to line up with coverage responsibilities when Johnson is on the field. He can’t cover Johnson, pure and simple. For me, if Johnson’s on the field, Harrison isn’t.
I saw little use of Cook in the passing game, but they will utilize Ray Davis on occasions.
The Receivers
The Bills use the shifty Khalil Shakir almost exclusively out of the slot. They love throwing him an instantaneous quick pass at the line (with or without blockers in front), allowing him to use his quickness to wreck damage. They used that play four times against the Chargers. Buffalo also has Shakir run a lot of crossing routes, to great effect. Marlon Humphrey, who shut down Shakir in the first matchup, will draw the assignment against Shakir. Marlon should be as physical as possible to disrupt timing and throw Shakir off his routes.
Keon Coleman is the deep threat from the wideout group, and I expect Buffalo will use him to challenge Brandon Stephens down the field. Everyone challenges Stephens. But the other deep threat is tight end Dalton Kincaid, who is fast enough to run deep down the seam and is a primary target for Allen. Again, I don’t want to see Malik Harrison with any coverage responsibilities against Kincaid, which would be a complete mismatch. It will be interesting to see which coverages Zach Orr relies upon, and I’m most worried about intermediate middle of the field depth by the inside linebackers in the zone packages. Discipline on the back end will be critical.
Amari Cooper is a crafty veteran, but he’s not the all-the-field threat that he used to be. Curtis Samuel is a typical underneath, possession guy who gets three or so targets per game. Mack Hollins is an in-your-face tough cookie who will high point the ball and is a red zone threat.
But as a group, the wide receiver room is just average. Which leads us to . . .
Josh Allen
Yes, he’s sensational. Like Lamar Jackson, you simply must not allow Allen to extend plays, which means keeping him in the pocket. When he extends, he kills you, and so much of the Bills passing effectiveness is Allen doing just that. Allen and Jackson are very much mirror images of each other in this regard. Lamar extends with great quickness, upper body deception, and footwork. Allen extends with power and footwork. His phenomenal arm allows him to make throws under duress that no one else can accomplish. Your defensive backs must stay attached to their assignments as long as they can, which of course creates Allen’s great run opportunities.
The Ravens edge rushers must maintain their discipline in this game. This means keeping their lane discipline. These guys must not simply run up the arc against Allen. They also cannot dive quickly to the inside. If they do, and miss, Allen will kill them. The plan for any team against both Allen and Jackson is the same. Keep them in the pocket!
I can’t really spot any flaw in Allen’s game. He’s poised, powerful, savvy, and smart. The Ravens must pressure him without losing lane control.
Bills Defensive Observations
Let’s look at a few key elements
Interior Linebackers
There are opportunities against the Bills interior linebackers. Terrell Bernard, in particular, is a mediocre at best defender in the passing game. He struggles in space and in getting depth in zone packages. He’s the ideal player for Isaiah Likely to attack down the seam or more generally in space. Matt Milano remains tough against the run and is smart and instinctive, but he did not appear as comfortable playing in zone responsibilities either. The Ravens pass attack should go after that middle of the field against these two.
The Secondary
The Bills best defensive back is slot corner Taron Johnson. But if Zay Flowers doesn’t play, the Ravens will run a ton of two tight end sets and not nearly as many three wide receiver sets. If the Bills opt to play nickel coverage against the two tight ends, this will leave the 5’11 Johnson probably on either Ravens tight end, or in zone packages where those tight ends are in space around him. It’s another way of saying that Johnson’s edge as a nickel is compromised in those two tight end sets.
None of the Bills outside corners are special. Although Christian Benford graded out very well by Pro Football Focus, on tape he looked a bit slow, and I’d be content with him matching up against Rashod Bateman in man packages. And the safeties are very ordinary in coverage. There will be opportunities against this group. The question for Todd Monken is whether he will attack this early in the game.
The Defensive Front
The Ravens handled the Bills front in the first game. But Ed Oliver looked great against the Chargers and is ever so quick on the snap. Pat Mekari against Oliver is a key for the Ravens. Greg Rousseau is a very good edge rusher and will present some challenges for Roger Rosengarten. Rousseau is long and quick, with excellent bend. The Ravens should challenge him in the run-option game at the very least.
Von Miller still has juice in the tank as a situational rusher. His patented spin move is still there. If the Ravens get behind much in this game, their tackles will see a lot of Miller.
The Bills don’t blitz very much, and I don’t think they will pick the poison of blitzing Jackson much in this game either. Lamar has just proven to be so dangerous against blitz looks, and the Bills aren’t particularly adept at it anyway.
I expect the Ravens to get a lot of single high safety looks from Buffalo as the Bills attempt to stop the Ravens running attack. There should be play-action opportunities against them if Todd Monken chooses to do it. Will Monken simply re-run the game plan from the Steelers game? Or, with that on tape, will he use some variations off of the central approach, including some actual run-pass options for Lamar? I’d like to see them use the running backs in the passing game against those Bills linebackers. Justice Hill should be a tough matchup.
The Ravens Defense
Russell Wilson did not trust what he saw against the Ravens secondary last week. He was hesitant when players were open. Josh Allen won’t be. Wilson left opportunities on the field. It’s still a concern that those opportunities existed. This is all the more reason the Ravens must contain Allen.
Both of Wilson’s touchdown tosses resulted from mistakes in the secondary. On the first 30-yarder to Van Jefferson, Brandon Stephens was beaten badly, and Kyle Hamilton’s first reaction was in the wrong direction. It was primarily a breakdown by Stephens, but Hamilton’s mistake magnified the effect.
On the deep touchdown pass to George Pickens, Nate Wiggins allowed Pickens to get to the outside and had his eyes glued onto the quarterback throughout the play. It was an easy blow-by for Pickens. Ar’darius Washington attacked the mistake as fast and decisively as he could, but it was a perfect boundary throw and he just couldn’t get there with the proper angle.
By the way, when Marlon Humphrey missed several plays, the Ravens rotated Stephens to the back end and put Hamilton back into the slot position, leaving Tra’Davious White on the corner. White continues to be unable to manage outside down the field. He just can’t run enough to keep up with explosive receivers.
One last thing on the defense. Odafe Oweh played arguably his best game of the season against the Steelers. He used power and speed to win and keep constant pressure on Wilson. Oweh’s shoulder dip past Broderick Jones for a sack was a thing of beauty. Zach Orr joyfully leapt off of the sideline to greet Oweh after the sack. It was as if Orr was saying, “See, I knew you could do that.” Oweh’s play will be very important against Allen.
Final Thoughts
I can’t argue with the notion that Monken’s plan should be the season-long primary plan used against Pittsburgh. Make the Bills defend Derrick Henry and Lamar in the run game. Start there, and work off of it. I worry a bit about the extreme cold weather’s impact on Lamar’s passing hand. Jackson does not wear passing gloves (Allen does), and keeping those fingers warm enough to maintain good feel on the football could be a small variable with a big impact. What will his touch be like down the field? We are talking about “feels-like” temperatures near zero. This just isn’t a variable in the Ravens favor.
Will Zay Flowers play? Sure, I know he had little impact in the first matchup, but it’s time for an all-hands-on-deck game, and having Flowers puts maximum pressure on the Bills defense. Again, without him I’m giving more targets to the Ravens tight-ends and running backs. But Andrews and Likely are a big advantage for Baltimore, and I expect Monken to exploit that.
One also has to be concerned about the kicking game. Jordan Stout has been anything but, as he’s consistently unable to drop kicks inside of the ten yard line; or even the 20 on many occasions. And his leg can be short. He’s a liability, particularly in cold weather. One also must wonder, which Justin Tucker will show up? The conventional thinking is this game will offer a lot of points. But somehow, I think Tucker – in either direction – could be the difference.
Washington was my sleeper team going into the playoffs. They continue to be.
We’ll see
The game is played on the field not in the newspapers