Derrick Henry was the perfect solution to the Ravens’ backfield question. As a power runner he has not lost a thing. Henry was second in the league in yards after contact last year. He ran 21.7 miles per hour in the last game of the 2023 season. This was the second fastest clocked time in his career. And he reached it in that last game in a season where he led the league in attempts. His run was the seventh fastest time in the entire league last year and only three running backs recorded faster times (twice by Devon Archane of the Dolphins).
To those who say that few if any 30-year old running backs exceed 1,000 yards rushing – that’s just a meaningless stat based on what other players achieved. This is not a clearly-slowed Mark Ingram signing. Derrick Henry is different. And he should be extra-special for the Ravens.
Derrick Henry: A Deeper Look
What some of the pundits (including our local pundits) are ignoring is the wild advantage Henry will enjoy in the Ravens offensive scheme. And the huge advantage Henry should bring to the Ravens offense given the skills of Lamar Jackson.
Most importantly, according to Next Gen Stats, Henry faced eight men in the box at the snap on 35.36% of snaps, the second highest in the league. His offensive line, according to Sharp Football Analysis, was only 21st in the league in run block win rate. The ineptitude of Tennessee’s line was further highlighted by Henry’s ranking only 44th (out of 49 backs) in yards before contact. By contrast, Gus Edwards was 17th in the league behind the Ravens superior line.
Then let’s look at the Titans’ play selection last year. As Sharp points out, after a first down incompletion, on second down the Titans ran the ball at the fifth highest rate in the league. On second and 10, they were the fifth most likely team to run the ball. By contrast, the Ravens ran the ball at the third lowest rate in the league in those situations. Frankly, the Titans pass game was so poor that there was little alternative other than to run the ball. It was predictable and teams stacked the box against them.
Lamar Jackson Against “Box” Looks
The problem for 2024 Ravens opponents is that, based on last year, Lamar Jackson as a passer killed teams that deployed seven or more men in the box against him. He was first in success rate in the league, third in completion rate, and fourth in yards per attempt and first down rate. So, if teams want to stack the box to stop Henry, they are playing right into Lamar’s greatest strengths as a passer.
Moreover, against teams that put seven or more men in the box against Jackson last year, he was first in ten-plus yard gains per attempt, 5th in 15-plus yards gained per attempt, and fourth in air yards per attempt in the league. Lamar took advantage of these stacked looks and threw the ball down the field, with great success. He crushed it in those situations and would up with the third highest completion percentage against those looks.
Advantage Ravens
What does all of this suggest? If Ravens opponents want to stack the box to stop Henry, Lamar has a huge advantage and will attack deep down the field for big plays. If teams choose to not stack against Henry, big advantage to Henry, who is still pulverizing would-be tacklers after contact and has the speed to take it to the house. This should all be a nightmare for Ravens opponents. Oh, and by the way, I can’t wait to see Pat Ricard as Henry’s lead blocker. Look out corners and safeties!
For Henry, this is essentially a one-year deal. It’s a much better deal – and better fit for the Ravens – than signing the other pricier backs who went elsewhere.
Ronnie Stanley and the Offensive Line
The cap savings on the Ronnie Stanley contract restructuring were essentially what I foresaw. I expected $8 million. His contract was finalized with $9.5 million of savings for 2024. But that extra $1.5 million will hit back in 2025.
I was in favor of letting John Simpson and Kevin Zeitler go elsewhere. Simpson received a two year contract with $7.5 million of guaranteed money. Derrick Henry received $9 million of guaranteed money. These deals should roughly off-set for compensation draft pick purposes, i.e., it’s as if the Ravens traded Simpson for Henry.
Zeitler is still out on the free agent market. I would not bring him back.
At this point I think the Ravens are expecting the following. First, they are likely targeting a starting offensive right tackle with their first pick in the draft. I’ll be getting to the draft and all of the analysis from the Ravens’ perspective starting in a few weeks.
Second, they are hoping that Andrew Voorhees is able to start at left guard. Third, they are hoping that one among a second drafted rookie, Daniel Faalele or Malaesale Aumavae-Laulu will man the right guard spot. Fourth, they will likely sign a veteran guard or tackle who has previously been a starter in the league.
So as I sit here today, it’s Stanley at left tackle, Vorhees at left guard, Tyler Linderbaum at center, Daniel Faalele/Laulu/rookie at left guard, rookie at right tackle. This will be a much different line that will need time to work as a unit. It could be a weakness or a strength. But Eric DeCosta was right to revamp it, in any event.
