Time to prepare for the big Sunday matchup. I start with thoughts from the Chiefs win over the Bills. What we can identify as focus areas for the Chiefs, and lessons learned for the Ravens.
The Chiefs Running Game
Readers well know that Mike Macdonald’s zone focuses create weakness in the Ravens interior run defense. The Ravens typically wind up with only six defenders in the box. In the Chiefs tight victory over the Bills, virtually all of their success in the run game was between the tackles. Isaiah Pacheco ran tough with arms flailing (a fumble risk) as the Chiefs pounded the ball. They had virtually no success with designed running plays wide. Pacheco looked a bit slower to me than I expected, just a tad less explosiveness than we’ve seen before.
No doubt the Chiefs will similarly attack the Ravens interior run defense. Will Macdonald devote more defensive resources to stopping the interior run attack? This is a fair question, perhaps more so than in any other contest this year, because the Chiefs passing attack is quite pedestrian at this point (see below). And although Marquez Valdes-Scantling can get deep, he’s such a poor route runner that the Chiefs arguably offer less of a deep threat than any other playoff team. Hence, will Macdonald roll up one of the safeties to bring seven in the box against the run? Or more, if need be?
It’s essential this week that Justin Madubuike and Michael Pierce when tasked to play one-gap succeed in standing up their double teams. For that matter, I’d have no problem with Travis Jones playing a bit more alongside Pierce, because I think Jones is more effective at one-gap control than Madubuike. The key is to try to keep Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen as clean as possible. And Queen must be on his A-game; not guessing as much in the run game, as is his want.
One last run game thought. If the Ravens play more cover-6 (cover-2 to the weakside of the field, cover-4 to the strong side), the flat on the strong side tends to be open, inviting runs to that edge. In this structure the Ravens are inviting the edge run to that side. In that case, will the Chiefs task Pacheco with the ball, or bring in Clyde Edwards-Helaire?
Travis Kelce
Kelce’s effectiveness last week was the result of four key plays. On the first two of them he drew man coverage from linebacker A.J. Klein (yes, that Klein, who was the throw-in by the Ravens in the Roquan Smith trade). Patrick Mahomes easily spotted the mismatch and Kelce torched Klein for one solid gain and one monster gain.
On the third play, the Bills were in what appeared to be quarters coverage, safety Jordan Poyer got confused and made a giant mental mistake, jumping up as Kelce ran by him. Kelce then found himself all alone for an uncontested touchdown in the end zone. On the fourth play at the Bills three yard line the Chiefs utilized three tight ends outside the left tackle, with Kelce at the widest. The other two tight ends formed a wall, Mahomes easily tossed to Kelce, who then ran behind that wall and into the end zone (with Klein unable to tackle him). Kelce’s final reception was inconsequential. And that’s it.
What does this mean for this week? If we assume that Kelce remains Mahomes’ primary weapon in the Chiefs passing attack – which I do – then the Ravens would be wise tasking Kyle Hamilton with the primary responsibility of (at least) underneath coverage of Kelce. He should align on Kelce’s side of the formation (no A.J. Klein here). Which similarly means that we don’t want to wind up in situations where Patrick Queen is tasked with that responsibility. I’m sure the Chiefs will attempt to scheme into Queen isolation coverage of Kelce. Mike Macdonald must try to avoid that. We don’t want to see Queen tasked with getting to the flat in cover-4 or cover-6 sets trying to get to Kelce.
This could lead to more Geno Stone on the field, as Hamilton could wind up in less of a pure slot position and more like an outside linebacker in a 4-3 defense, making it easier to mirror Kelce. Simply said, Hamilton should align on the strong-side wherever Kelce is. Geno Stone must not react too quickly on play-action to attack the run. And Marcus Williams along with whoever winds up on the back end, must not allow Kelce to get behind them. This is true whether the Ravens play cover-2, cover-4, or cover-6.
Thoughts from the Chiefs-Bills Game – Other Passing Attack Thoughts
The Chiefs ran more two-tight end sets than I expected. They work gaps in the middle of the field, and this will be true against whichever zone structures the Ravens run. Sometimes we see the extra tight end as a crosser behind a clearing-out wide receiver, and Roquan Smith could wind up the key to minimizing this impact.
None of the Chiefs wide receivers bring special individual talents. There were not a lot of Chiefs wide receivers open against the Bills. As noted, Valdes-Scantling is not a great route runner, and winds up on a different page than Mahomes too often in free-lance time. He also occasionally reads the finish of the route different than Mahomes. Rashee Rice is a solid underneath receiver who lacks top-end speed. He’s decent with the ball in his hands, typically in open space in the medium flat. The Chiefs will shift into overloads on one side of the field in an attempt to confuse the coverages. But the note I’ll leave with is this: the Chiefs pass game success, ex-Kelce, is really predicated on Mahomes making the correct reads as opposed to relying on extraordinary skill from their wide receivers. Which brings us to . . .
To Blitz or Not to Blitz
I’m a firm believer that a heavy reliance on blitz is not the best way to minimize Patrick Mahomes. From a general top-down view, Mahomes is adept at avoiding the rush, leading to ad hoc plays with fewer defenders in pass coverage. To the extent that the Ravens play cover-6, an occasional blitz from the weak side corner is fine. Or from Patrick Queen who will be on the weak side. But simply said, although the goal on any pass play is to get the quarterback down, your first priority is containing Mahomes in the pocket, forcing him to read seven pass defenders.
Mahomes is very willing to run when he scrambles. He’s quite adept at it, with a great feel for getting defenders off of their toes. Man coverages in scramble situations invite these runs. It’s another reason for the Ravens to stay away from man coverages this week.
Joe Thuney’s loss on the inside this week suggests that the Ravens attack the interior of the Chiefs line in pass situations with greater urgency. Push that pocket and get rushers right into his eyes. Yes, Mahomes can make any pass in almost any manner. But no one likes rushers into their face and inside of their foot mechanics.
The Chiefs Pass Defense is Excellent – Bring On Mark Andrews
What screamed off of the Bills tape was the great discipline exhibited by the Chiefs in their zone packages. Much like the Ravens. The Bills had great difficulty getting wide receivers open. Their routes were generally unsophisticated, with a focus on getting downfield. Receivers did not frequently work back towards Josh Allen. Against the Chiefs’ cover-6 the Bills, unsurprisingly, found themselves frequently throwing underneath into the flat. This area of the field will be open on Sunday, and the Ravens should try to get Zay Flowers the ball in the flat if they can.
The Bills receivers almost never cut off their routes against the Chiefs zone packages. They ran them up the tree no matter where the coverages were. This is why the return of Mark Andrews could be so important to the Ravens. Andrews is as good as anyone in finding – and then sitting in – soft spots in the zones. The Ravens must exploit this if they can. Furthermore, to the extent Todd Monken runs Andrews with Isaiah Likely, running Likely into the flat in certain zone coverages should present good yards-after-catch opportunities.
Other Passing Game Thoughts
The one player in the Chiefs packages who struggled quite a bit was interior linebacker Nick Bolton. On more than one occasion Bolton was slow to read and/or understand assignments, and though he is fast, found himself out of position.
Buffalo did not utilize a lot of pre-snap motion. But when they did they created some confusion, especially with quick motion right before the snap. The Ravens should run some of this with Zay Flowers, as it is hard to check off zone assignments against a player who can cut back across the formation pre-snap like Flowers.
Note that the Chiefs will blitz both from the slot and corner positions, depending on the package they run. The Ravens have struggled this year adjusting assignments against the blitz, and Lamar will need to recognize these attacks quickly.
I don’t want to bemoan this, but I will. What a shame Keaton Mitchell is unavailable. He would be devastating in the flat against the types of coverages the Chiefs will likely run.
The Chiefs Run Defense is Mediocre
The Bills had tremendous success running both power and zone schemes in the interior. On the other hand, I counted (unless I missed) zero successful designed runs to the edge. The Chiefs are excellent flowing to the ball. All of this obviously suggests that the Ravens should attack the middle against the Chiefs run defense.
The exception to all of this was inside their own ten yard line. The Bills on several occasions attempted to pound the ball to the inside against much tighter sets, with no success. This area of the field suggest that the Ravens utilize Lamar’s versatility and quickness. I can foresee Lamar appearing to run inside the ten or five, then pulling back for a toss pass to a tight end (a fake run/then pass, which we saw earlier in the year). The Chiefs should bite on plays like that, as they tended to collapse towards the running back.
The Chiefs might be the best overall defense the Ravens have played. It has its weaknesses, but it is disciplined, runs to the ball, and is aggressive. They present a different challenge.
