May 2nd is the deadline for exercising fifth-year options on 2021 first-round draftees. Should the Ravens exercise the option for either or both of Rashod Bateman and/or Odafe Oweh? An exercise of the option on Bateman would cost the Ravens $14.3 million for the 2025 season. For Oweh, the number is $13.3 million. These amounts would count dollar-for-dollar against the Ravens 2025 salary cap.
On the surface the decisions for each player may appear obvious. Neither has reached the expectations of a first round pick. Typically, you only want to exercise a fifth year option on a player who has “proven it.” Generally, a team should choose to exercise a fifth year option to allow it to structure a longer term deal with a player who has proven it. Conceptually, it’s as if the team is addressing a franchise tag type of situation one year earlier. Has either Bateman or Oweh “proven it?” Let’s take a closer look at each player to see what case if any can be made to exercise those options.
Note that another reason to exercise a fifth-year option on a player is to control that player going into the NFL draft. The Ravens did this with Hollywood Brown, exercising his option before the draft that year, then trading him on draft night. Brown, however, had “proven” value (certainly enough to prompt Arizona to surrender a first rounder for him).
Exercising Fifth Year Options: Rashod Bateman
The simple and easy answer to this question with Bateman is “no.” But let’s walk through it a bit. I’ll start with personal observations. Watching last year’s tape, one can’t say that Bateman wasn’t doing his job. He was regularly open but frequently ignored. I thought Bateman’s route running was fairly precise, his effort was there, and he was a willing blocker. Bateman missed one game. He was on the field for a total of only 409 pass attempts (less than 23 per game, including playoffs). He was targeted only 55 times in the regular season and caught only 36 passes. Bateman caught half of the contested balls that came his way, had a 10% drop percentage, and scored only once.
Over Bateman’s entire career he has produced just 97 receptions, 1,208 yards and four touchdowns. He’s had his injury challenges, including soft tissue and foot problems.
Can the Ravens make a case why Bateman will “explode” up from here to warrant being committed to a $14.3 million payout and salary cap number on Bateman in 2025? That’s a very big projection based off of his production.
The Bateman Analysis
Now it’s hard to see the Ravens making a big wide receiver splash in free agency this year. Perhaps an ancillary player, but not a number two wide receiver. Will Beckham be back? I’m not advocating for it. Will they draft someone? Most assuredly.
But almost by default Bateman is heavily favored at this point to be the Ravens number two wide receiver in game one of the 2024 season. He figures to get the biggest opportunity of his career since his rookie season. But exercising a fifth year option is all about risk/reward. It’s all about the probabilities of the risk and the size of the reward. And when a player hasn’t proven it before the expiration of the option exercise date it becomes problematic.
The Risk Side of the Bateman Equation
So what is the risk to the Ravens if they don’t exercise Bateman’s option? Let’s say that Bateman has a massive breakout in 2024 and turns into a number one receiver. At that point Bateman would become a free agent, with the Ravens in the position to put the franchise tag on him. How much might that tag be?
Tee Higgins just received a $21.8 million tag from the Bengals. If the Ravens forego exercising Bateman’s option, Bateman breaks through, and the Ravens want to retain him, the $14.3 million that the Ravens elected not to pay (by declining the option) turns into, say, $22.5 million at “tag time.” Thus, the gamble on Bateman if it pays off “costs” the Ravens roughly $8 million, at least on paper. If the Ravens then work out a longer term deal with Bateman, the $22.5 million is re-worked into a lower 2025 cap number. The $22.5 million number is strictly illusory in that example.
Thus, it doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense to take the risk today of actually paying $14.3 million for the un-proven Bateman in 2025. That number counts dollar for dollar against the 2025 cap. If Bateman has a big year in 2024, the Ravens will structure a better cap deal via a longer-term deal with Bateman.
A Little More on Bateman
What’s the likelihood that Bateman actually breaks out to a number one receiver level? To some degree it depends on how hard he is working right now and throughout the off-season, and particularly in spending time working with Lamar. Because it is essential that Bateman develop the type of rapport with Jackson that will lead to Lamar targeting him more frequently. And particularly on broken plays. Now I think the odds of that rapport developing are not high, but not just because Bateman might not put in the work. The challenge is that Mark Andrews is Lamar’s secret target, and Zay Flowers will be the primary target much more frequently than Bateman. Then layer on top of that Isaiah Likely and the mismatches he will draw. It should be evident that Bateman, as a primary target, has a big hill to climb.
We are back to where we started with Bateman. There’s no real case for exercising his fifth year option.
Exercising Fifth Year Options: Odafe Oweh
I know I’m not in line with mainstream critics on Oweh. I thought Oweh showed significant improvement as a pass rusher last year. He added an ability to spin with some alacrity. He’s too stiff in coverage and should not be tasked with dropping back. He generally held his own against the run. Oweh only played 491 snaps last year, much less than in 2022 and 2021, largely because he missed four games.
Now I have my quibbles with Pro Football Focus, but I like the way they approach evaluating edge rushers. Like them, I don’t believe the number of “sacks” is the most accurate way of measuring a pass rusher’s performance. Instead, PFF primarily looks to “true pass sets”, which focuses on sacks, hits and hurries while ignoring things such as play action passes, screens, and run-pass options (all of which help the offense). It’s similar to my view of seeing how many plays the defender “destroys,” which is the way I see Jadaveon Clowney. You don’t have to get the sack if you destroy the play.
Oweh By the Pass Rush Numbers
So how did Oweh stack up in “true pass sets?” Under PFF’s “PRP” stat (a formula that combines sacks, hits, and hurries relative to how many times a player rushed the passer), Oweh earned a 12.1 grade, best on the Ravens. When you eliminate players with less than 200 pass rush plays, Oweh was 23rd best in the league. Not bad.
Furthermore, Oweh’s “win percentage” (the percentage of wins versus blocking on non-penalty pass rush snaps) in these “true pass set” plays was 23.7%, which was 13th best in the league. Even more impressive. His win rate was better than Za’Darius Smith, Alex Highsmith, T.J. Watt, and others. By the way, Jadaveon Clowney finished right behind Oweh by this metric.
I believe, and this data supports the view, that Oweh has already demonstrated that he is an ascending player with the potential to be an excellent edge defender next season. Oweh needs to play more and develop some additional counters. He’s never going to be the best “bender” but he has enough quickness, strength and power to be a consistently high-end pass rusher, in my view. You don’t have to win in multiple ways. But you do have to consistently win. Terrell Suggs did it by relying primarily on power moves. He wasn’t a great bender. Oweh needs to become dominant in at least one way, and I think he’s getting there.
So What Should the Ravens Do?
For the sake of argument let’s say the Ravens agree with my basic view. What should they do regarding the fifth year option exercise? Unlike Bateman, I believe Oweh is favored to reach a higher level. Barring injury, he should get tons of opportunity. So at $13.3 guaranteed money for 2025 on option exercise is that a good risk/reward for the Ravens?
Now I’m not saying that Oweh is Brian Burns or Josh Allen, but both Burns and Allen were just franchised for $24 million. I’d rather be in a position with Oweh, given the risk/reward of option exercise, of having him committed for 2025 for $13.3 million. If he has a breakout season he’d be a steal at that number for 2025, The Ravens would then be in an excellent negotiating position to work out a longer term deal with him. Moreover, if the Ravens are unable to work out a long term deal in 2025, they would still control Oweh for $13.3 million in 2025, with the ability to franchise him in 2026. That’s a good position to be in.
If Oweh fails, a likely worse case is the Ravens have him for 2025 at a salary/cap number that is $6-$7 million too high. I believe that’s a reasonable gamble given where I think Oweh is as a player.
Now I’m a bit prejudiced here because I generally like what Oweh brings and I believe he’s ascending. But at least there is some hard data to back up what I saw on the tape.
Next up for the blog is a look at available free agents and what the Ravens should/can do.