It’s draft day! Finally, the Ravens Big Board is here. Let me explain for a moment the purpose of this Ravens Big Board. It is not a ranking of all prospects such as you typically see on numerous websites. That type of ranking is not really useful in figuring out who the Ravens will target. The goal is to find who fits what the Ravens try to do, and which players bring to the table what the Ravens most need. Therefore, my Ravens Big Board is intended to list, by round, which specific prospects I think the Ravens should draft, roughly in that round.
Then there is the draft analysis. Obviously, the draft can go a million different ways for the Ravens – starting right away in the first round. I try to deal with some of the possibilities in setting my priorities, and I explain some of these scenarios. But there is no way anyone can predict them all, and neither can I.
So, I begin by augmenting the analysis I started in the Round One analysis post (look here).
How Round One Might Go for the Ravens
What a difficult year to be in the 14 slot when you’re primary needs (Ronnie Stanley aside) are cornerback and edge rusher. Recall that my primary targets (the “Big Three”) for the Ravens at the top of round one are, in order of preference:
Derek Stingley
Ahmed Gardner
Jermaine Johnson
What are the Chances the Ravens Can Get One of the Big Three?
At pick 14, what is the probability that any one of the Big Three could be available? Some discussion of this issue was outlined in the earlier post, but I’ll be more precise here. When I rank probabilities of who among the Big Three gets selected, I’m pretty confident that Johnson will go last. Whether Gardner goes before Stingley, or the other way around, I think it’s a high probability outcome that they are both gone by pick seven in the absence of trades (say, 75%), higher through pick nine (say, 90%), and a certainty by pick 12 (100%).
Without other teams trading up to at least pick seven where the Giants sit, I believe the probability of any one of the Big Three being available at pick 14 is less than ten percent (10%). This is because I think the Giants will grab the remaining player as between Stingley and Gardner (if they are not already gone) with that pick. If there are no trades, when I add in the high probability of Johnson being selected in the next six picks, I wind up with a very low chance he will fall to the Ravens at 14. When I look at probabilities like these, if the Ravens are really targeting any of the Big Three, then the Ravens must trade up to get their man.
Trade-Up Considerations
I agree with the notion that gathering more picks as a general proposition is almost always the right way to go in any draft. The more at-bats, the better the odds of getting hits. But the exception to that rule, for me, is being willing to trade-up when you grade a player – with a very high probability – of being a multi-year All-Pro candidate (i.e., Hall of Fame potential). That’s where I have Stingley. And I think Johnson and Gardner can get there too.
Would the Ravens trade up to the Giants’ pick seven? It would cost the Ravens 101 points on the Rich Hill chart to have a chance to make such a move. This means the Ravens would have to part with somewhat less than the value of their second round pick. So multiple picks would have to be involved by both trading teams to make the value of the trade roughly equivalent. This becomes a complicated trade not only for this reason, but because the Giants as the selling team would have to be motivated to trade out of pick seven. And they already hold six of the first 81 picks in the draft.
I believe that the Giants focus in any such trade is likely on gaining a first rounder in 2023. My spidey-sense tells me that they really don’t see Daniel Jones as their franchise quarterback, and 2023 is a big year for quarterbacks in the draft. Having an extra 2023 first rounder is invaluable.
All of that is pure guesswork of course. But if my instinct is even in the neighborhood of being right, if the Giants could choose, I doubt whether the first rounder the Giants would prefer would be that of the Ravens. But you never know.
What’s clear is that, to get to pick seven, it’s reasonably likely that the Ravens would have to part with this year’s second rounder, which I think is a low probability outcome. The second through fourth rounds is where the value is this year. I doubt DeCosta and company would make this type of move. But, to have a chance at Stingley, it’s very likely that pick seven is where DeCosta must go (and Stingley could even go higher).
The trade-up consideration leaves us with two subsequent questions. First, how high would DeCosta be willing to trade up to get anyone among the Big Three. Second, how much would he be willing to pay to get there? I’ll get there after this interlude.
Will Anyone Trade for a Quarterback?
I believe that a team trading into the top ten this year, and more likely the top five, will likely be targeting a quarterback (although perhaps New Orleans would target an offensive tackle). It’s true that this year’s quarterback class is comparatively weak. But it only takes one team to fall in love with a quarterback to make this happen. Now rumors are swirling that the Panthers, who don’t have a second or third round pick this year, would like to trade back from pick six and still draft Kenny Pickett somewhere in the teens. Take rumors for what they are. But let’s run with that for a second.
The Panthers do need a quarterback (sorry, Sam Darnold). And they need more draft capital this year. No doubt they would like other quarterback-interested teams to believe they will take Pickett – or a quarterback – at six. The chess game becomes whether a quarterback needy team believes it. Or is even itself targeting Pickett. Is there incentive for any team to trade in front of the Panthers?
Who Would Trade into the Top Ten for a Quarterback?
But when I take a hard look at who could be motivated to trade up for a quarterback, the prospects are somewhat grim with a class like this. Two teams in the top ten (Carolina and Atlanta) have a need. But when you go from 11 all the way down to 20, should any of those teams, even if they want a quarterback, trade up? I think the likeliest answer is “no”, with one exception. Who’s on a possible list? Washington (pick 11), Houston (pick 13), New Orleans (picks 16 and 19), and Pittsburgh (pick 20).
I immediately scratch Houston off the list. The Texans obvious move is to go quarterback hunting in 2023, likely picking at or near the very top of the board. They should probably trade down and help build their roster.
Washington at pick 11 – if they want a quarterback – may well conclude to sit pat and see how things play out with the picks in front of them, as they have quite a few needs. I just don’t see them as likely to move up.
Then there’s the Saints. They made a very expensive trade with the Eagles to acquire pick 19. Why? The two first rounders they now hold are worth a combined 583 Rich Hill points. That’s certainly enough (and more) to get them to pick five. Is it a quarterback? Is it a left tackle? Who knows? A Saints trade to the Panthers to take anyone other than a quarterback or a wide receiver would be bad news for the Ravens.
And then there’s the Steelers at pick 20. They’ve done a ton of work on the quarterbacks in this class, and I don’t believe they did that just to pick a quarterback in the second round. It’s a very high probability in my view that they will draft a quarterback this year. But we just don’t know which one they are targeting. I’m guessing Malik Willis – but it’s just a guess, though for these purposes it doesn’t really matter which one. To get up to pick six to “guarantee” them Willis (or whoever) would likely cost them next year’s first rounder. That seems tough. They’d have to really love their choice to move up that high.
Now let’s not forget that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert has never been reluctant to trade up quite a bit to get their man. And if he believes that Willis, say, is their next franchise quarterback, I believe the Steelers will make the move up, all the way to pick six if they conclude they have to. No doubt that a trade to pick eleven is much more palatable for them. But the probabilities to me, knowing the Steelers’ predilections, balance in favor of them jumping all the way up if they are in love with one particular prospect. It’s Colbert’s last draft. Of course, they could just gamble that everyone in front of them will pass and they get their man that way. But I’m underscoring the view that if they love one of these quarterbacks and see him as their franchise guy, they’ll go get him.
In the end, this type of trade really won’t help the Ravens much if the Steelers don’t jump to pick five in front of the Panthers. Unless, of course, the Panthers use their pick six on another quarterback. If that doesn’t happen, or if the Steelers trade with the Panthers, then the Ravens will need someone else (and maybe two teams) to trade up into the top ten to, perhaps, grab a wide receiver.
Of course, the real focus of early round-one trade-ups is likely the wide receivers anyway. We can only hope so. The other unknown is whether someone will jump into, say, the Giants pick seven with an offer of a 2023 number 1 (and more). Then again, who could that acquirer be targeting that would actually help the Ravens?
The Two Questions for Eric DeCosta
Now it’s back to the two questions. How high will DeCosta be willing to trade up? I’ve outlined that I believe the probability of Stingley lasting to pick nine is low. If DeCosta wants 100% certainty that he will acquire anyone among the Big Three, then I think he will have to either get in front of the Seahawks or trade with them at nine. DeCosta should know by pick six whether there’s a quarterback-oriented trade-up. If that hasn’t materialized, then if there’s no wide receiver trade-up to pick seven, DeCosta could not count on any of the Big Three being around at pick 14. Now that’s not a disaster in terms of what the Ravens can do in this draft. But it will be disappointing from the perspective of getting a high-probability superstar on a defense that needs one in the front seven.
Now the price. To get in front of the Seahawks would cost the Ravens the first of their third rounders (pick 76) and one of their fourth rounders (probably pick 128). Would DeCosta do that for Jermaine Johnson?
The Ravens First Round Pick Revisited
I have ten players with round one grades at the three positions of need: edge rusher, cornerback and, if the Ronnie Stanley fear is real, offensive tackle. And one inside linebacker, too. There are no defensive linemen on my round one Ravens Big Board, including Jordan Davis as I’ve explained. Here’s the round one Ravens Big Board list, in order of my preference:
Derek Stingley
Ahmad Gardner
Jermaine Johnson
Charles Cross
Ikem Ekwonu
Travon Walker
Keyvon Thibodeaux
Evan Neal
Andrew Booth, Jr.
Trevor Penning (very reluctantly)
Devin Lloyd
Unlike in previous years, I’m not making a hard and fast prediction of the player I think the Ravens will take. That may disappoint some of you. But the waters are just too muddied this year and if I got it right, it would just be luck. Instead, I focus on the scenarios.
Now let’s assume each of the Big Three is gone. And let’s also assume that everyone on my list through Evan Neal is gone other than Keyvon Thibodeaux. That could leave Thibodeaux, Booth, and Penning (I’m ignoring Lloyd because I just can’t imagine the Ravens taking him). I’m actually excluding Penning who I just wouldn’t take at 14 regardless because the value is not there.
Thibodeaux or Booth at 14?
If the choice is between Thibodeaux and Booth, I think the Ravens must take Thibodeaux (assuming the Ravens have satisfied themselves on the Thibodeaux issues), even though I’m really high on Booth.
Why? Because, in the second round, I think that there are higher quality corners who are more likely to be available than higher quality edge rushers. And I’m convinced that (left tackle issue aside) the Ravens must exit rounds one and two with both an edge rusher and a starting-caliber corner.
Thus, if Thibodeaux is on the board at 14, at that point he will be the last – in my opinion – of the highest caliber edge rushers on the board. There are only three of them who are lock first rounders (Johnson, Walker, and Thibodeaux). The fall-off in edge talent is reasonably far from that point (although there are very solid prospects remaining). In my opinion, it’s more likely that at pick 45 the Ravens can still get a high-caliber cornerback with a reasonably high degree of probability. Now I know that I downplayed Thibodeaux quite a bit in my earlier post. But on reflection I’ve concluded that at 14, the Ravens will take him.
On the other hand, don’t get me wrong. I’d be delighted with Andrew Booth, Jr. In fact, in my opinion the likeliest of all probabilities is that Booth is the only one of my top ten choices still on the board at 14. In a no-trade scenario, I think there’s a very good chance the Ravens select him.
A Final Word on Jordan Davis
I’ve obviously panned the notion of taking Davis at pick 14 for reasons I previously explained. But I’ll add this. If the Ravens choose to take him there, they absolutely must have satisfied themselves that they can turn him into a 50+ play per game, three-down player. And that they can convert his athletic gifts into consistent pass rushing prowess. My reason for not putting Davis on my board through pick 14 is that these are a lot of ifs, given his history. I try to avoid big ifs in the first round. But if the Ravens take him at 14, they will have turned “if” into “will.”
Would I take Jordan Davis if the Ravens trade back to, say, pick 22 and Booth, Jr. is also gone? Probably not. But that’s me.
Round Two Scenarios
There are two general round two scenarios. First, the Ravens don’t trade back from pick 14 and only have one pick in round two. What does that look like?
Only One Second Round Pick – Cornerbacks
In the round two, one-pick scenario, the selection depends on who the Ravens snatched at pick 14. If it’s an edge rusher, then the focus should be on cornerback. My top choices, in order, are:
Top Round Two Cornerbacks
Dax Hill
Kyler Gordon
Trent McDuffie
Make no mistake, I absolutely love Dax Hill, even though he did not play outside corner at Michigan. He played a ton in the slot. Take a look at his profile here. I believe there’s a real chance he doesn’t make it out of the first round. But I’d be racing to take him in the second if the Ravens select an edge in the first.
Only One Second Round Pick – Other Players
Alternatively, if the Ravens select a corner in the first round, I see several non-corners that I would love to have. First, I list them in order of priority based on Ravens need.
Other Most Attractive Round Two Players Based on Need:
Boye Mafe – edge
Arnold Ebiketie – edge
Travis Jones – nose tackle
Perrion Winfrey – defensive end
Quay Walker – inside linebacker
George Karlaftis – edge
Some might wonder why I have Karlaftis at the bottom of this list and Mafe at the top. Let me explain. Mafe played great at the Senior Bowl which is very meaningful to me for one big reason. He really took to the coaching he received there. This is indicative of his ability to absorb NFL coaching and implement improvements. This willingness, and implementation by Mafe, is very significant because Mafe is an excellent athlete with great upside if he can absorb that teaching. He has the upside of being a better, much more impactful player (in my view) than Karlaftis. With his skills, Mafe is a much better schematic fit for the Ravens. Of course, he could easily go in the first round.
Karlaftis is at the bottom of this list (indeed, it’s questionable whether he’s even on the Ravens list) because I just don’t see him as a great fit. I don’t think he has the potential to bring the complete edge package that the Ravens really need. In the Ravens 3-4 approach Karlaftis would tend to frequently be lined-up away from the offensive tackle and I think with his physical skills he will be challenged to take on the tackle quickly enough. And I just don’t think he has the overall skillset to be a top-end edge rusher (he just won’t threaten up the arc).
I can’t include David Ojabo, who has tremendous pass rushing ability and was coached by Mike Macdonald, for two reasons. First, we don’t know if/when he can take the field in 2022 and the Ravens don’t have the luxury of red-shirting their second round pick if they are serious about making a Super Bowl run. Second, even if Ojabo is able to take the field in, say, December, the absence of practice time would mean he could only be a situational pass rusher. This is just too little value in 2022.
Next, I list these second rounders in order of perceived talent:
Other Most Attractive Round Two Players Based on Talent:
Travis Jones
Boye Mafe
Quay Walker
Perrion Winfrey
George Karlaftis
Arnold Ebiketie
The first list is obviously skewed to the edge rushers given the view that the Ravens must pick one no later than the second round. But as you can see there are several non-edge players who I love in round two. The two that stick out are Travis Jones and Quay Walker. I think you can make a great case that Travis Jones will wind up being a three-down nose tackle who will be a better pro than Jordan Davis. Now Davis has great upside, no doubt, if someone can turn him into a three-down player given his marvelous physical attributes. And if Davis reaches that potential, I still don’t think Jones will be far behind.
Quay Walker is a very talented inside linebacker with a lot of upside. He’s certainly worthy of the pick. He would have to be way up the Ravens’ board to be selected here, however, given their needs.
Two Second Round Picks
The Ravens should wind up with two second rounders if they are able to trade back from pick 14. With two second rounders, if the Ravens need to take one of the corners they probably can (they should have the firepower to maneuver the board if they need to). Then, with the second of the two second rounders I would snatch Travis Jones.
In a second two-pick scenario, I assume they selected a corner in the first round on the trade back. For example, that could be Booth (though unlikely he lasts all the way to, say, Green Bay’s pick 22 that the Ravens might acquire). Or, it could be any of Hill, McDuffie, or Gordon. Let’s say it’s Hill. At that point the Ravens should pursue Mafe with vigor, and then target either Travis Jones or Perrion Winfrey. I’d be tremendously satisfied in this situation if the Ravens first three picks turn out to be Dax Hill, Boye Mafe, and Travis Jones.
Of course, David Ojabo could sneak into the picture here. That wouldn’t be a shocker with an extra second rounder. His longer term potential as an elite edge rusher can’t be ignored. And perhaps Mike Macdonald can turn him into a solid edge defender, which is the real risk with his selection. I’d keep my eye on this possibility if the Ravens trade back.
The Ravens Big Board
The Ravens Big Board listing is of players I think the Ravens should consider in each of the rounds listed. Recognize that there are many players who I profiled in the various position reviews who are not on this board even though I think they bring something to the table. That’s because I don’t think the Ravens will draft them. I list those players – as draftable players – in a second grouping below the Ravens Big Board. If you want to see which round I slotted those players into, click over to the relevant position profiles.
Players listed from the second round down with an asterisk next to their names are personal favorites.
Round 1
Derek Stingley – CB
Ahmad Gardner – CB
Jermaine Johnson – Edge
Charles Cross – LT
Travon Walker – Edge
Keyvon Thibodeaux – Edge
Ikem Ekwonu – OT
Evan Neal – OT
Andrew Booth, Jr. – CB
Devin Lloyd – ILB
Trevor Penning – OT
Round 2
*Dax Hill – Slot corner/outside corner
Boye Mafe – Edge
*Travis Jones – Defensive line
Trent McDuffie – Slot corner
Kyler Gordon – Slot corner
Arnold Ebiketie – Edge
Jordan Davis – Defensive line
*Quay Walker – ILB
David Ojabo – Edge
Perrion Winfrey – Defensive line
*Dylan Parham – Center
Nakobe Dean – ILB
George Karlaftis – Edge (reluctantly)
Round 3 (not in any order as needs at that point are unpredictable)
Roger McCreary – CB
Damarri Mathis – CB
Cameron Thomas – Edge
*Josh Paschal – Edge
Sam Williams – Edge
Chad Muma – ILB
*Troy Anderson – ILB
Channing Tindall – ILB
*Jelani Woods – TE
Bernard Raimann – OT
Daniel Faalele – OT
Abraham Lucas – LT
Tyler Smith – OT
Max Mitchell – OT
*Ed Ingram – Guard
Cam Jurgens – Center
John Metchie III – WR
*Wan’dale Robinson – WR
Alec Pierce – WR
Round 4
Cam Taylor-Britt – CB
Jaylen Armour-Davis – CB
Joshua Williams – CB
Jaylen Watson – CB
Tariq Woolen – CB
Kalon Barnes – CB
Alontae Taylor – CB
*Dominique Robinson – Edge
Logan Hall – Edge/Interior line
Drake Jackson – Edge
De’Angelo Malone – Edge
Nik Bonitto -Edge
John Ridgeway – DT
Matthew Butler – DT
Phidarian Mathis – DT
Christian Harris – ILB
Isiah Likely – TE
Chig Okonkwo – TE
Greg Dulcich – TE
David Bellinger – TE
Braxton Jones – OT
Kellen Diesch – OT
Cordell Volson – G
Cade Mays – G
Cole Strange – Center
Zach Tom – Center
Isaiah Spiller – RB
*James Cook – RB
*Pierre Strong, Jr. – RB
*Tyler Badie – RB
Calvin Austin, III – WR
Round 5
*Damarrion Williams – CB
Jesse Luketa – Edge
Alex Wright – Edge
Christopher Allen – Edge
Kalia Davis – Defensive line
*Eric Johnson – Defensive line
Neal Farrell, Jr. – Defensive line
*Devin Harper – ILB
James Mitchell – TE
Jake Ferguson – TE
Matt Waletzko – OT
Spencer Burford – Guard
Kyren Williams – RB
Rachaad White – RB
Abram Smith – RB
Ty Chandler- RB
*Charleston Rambo – WR
Rounds 6 and 7
Tariq Castro Fields – CB
Bryce Watts – CB
Tyreke Smith – Edge
Daniel Hardy – Edge
Noah Ellis – Defensive line
Sam Roberts – Defensive line
Aaron Hansford – ILB
Mike McFadden – ILB
Kyron Johnson – ILB
Logan Bruss – Guard
Jerome Ford – RB
Dai’Jean Dixon – WR
Erik Ezukanma – WR
Braylon Sanders – WR
Deven Thompkins – WR
Ravens Big Board – Who Didn’t Make It
This list is players who didn’t fit on the Ravens Big Board because I don’t think they fit the Ravens. There are a bunch of very talented players on this board – some are highly draftable and others aren’t.
Tyler Linderbaum – Center
Kaiir Elam -CB
Marcus Jones -CB
Martin Emerson – CB
Zyon McCollum – CB
Cobie Durant – CB
Coby Bryant – CB
Josh Jobe – CB
Isaac Taylor Stuart – CB
Akayleb Evans -CB
Kingsley Enagbare – Edge
Myjai Sanders – Edge
Amare Barno – Edge
Zach Carter – Edge
Devonte Wyatt – Defensive line
DeMarvin Leal – Defensive line
Eyioma Uwazurike – Defensive line
Jayden Peevy – Defensive line
Brian Asamoah – ILB
Leo Chenal – ILB
JoJo Domann – ILB
Brandon Smith – ILB
Darrian Beavers – ILB
Terrel Bernard – ILB
Mike Rose – ILB
Jeremy Ruckert – TE
Cade Otton – TE
Cole Turner – TE
Austin Allen – TE
Luke Goedeke – OT
Sean Rhyan – OT
Rasheed Walker – OT
Darrian Kinnard – OT
Joshua Ezeudu – Guard
Chris Paul – Guard
Andrew Stueber – Guard
Zach Thomas – Guard
Nick Azkelj – Guard
Luke Fortner – Center
Dameon Pierce – RB
Zamir White – RB
Tyler Allgeier – RB
Brian Robinson – RB
Hassan Haskins – RB
Keontay Ingram – RB
Jalen Nailor – WR
Samori Toure – WR
Bo Melton – WR
Danny Gray – WR
David Bell – WR
Kyle Phillips – WR
Khalil Shakir – WR
