Wow, I certainly didn’t see that coming! Eric DeCosta bet his career last night, with the most curious draft selections, arguably, in Ravens history. There’s a lot to unpack here in this day one recap and I almost don’t know where to begin. But I’ll say this right off the bat. I don’t buy it.
How to Build a Championship Team: First, Identify What You Need
The Ravens entered the off-season having suffered the worst collection of major injuries last season of any team in the last ten years. With the return of those players, they see themselves as being very close to the top of the league.
But their defense has giant gaps. They can’t rush the quarterback. They don’t have a nickel corner to cover three receiver sets. The Ravens have no free safety. Their defensive line is almost completely devoid of athleticism with no one (to this point) who can get to the quarterback.
On offense, they’re in much better shape but with one major question. Can their great left tackle return from serious injury? They could use a right tackle to give them the flexibility to play Pat Mekari wherever they want or need. The team has a few secondary offensive concerns. They could upgrade at center. Their tight end room could use an additional pass catcher. A third running back would be nice. But for the first time in years their receiver room, thankfully, is full.
Second, Use Free Agency to Fill a Few Holes
Then free agency comes along and DeCosta makes a decisive move by signing the best free agent free safety – and a young one at that. Now he has an excellent safety duo, with Marcus Williams at free safety, and the chess piece Chuck Clark roaming all over the defense on any given play. This now becomes a super strength of the team. Free safety is solved, check off that defensive box.
Next, DeCosta signs Morgan Moses, a reliable veteran who never misses a down, to man the right tackle spot. Moses is as solid as you can get, DeCosta gets him cheap, and right tackle is now nailed down. Two signings, two holes filled. Nice job.
Third, Enter Round One With Two Giant Holes – Exit Round One With Three Giant Holes
Whoops, that title doesn’t sound quite right, does it? But somehow that’s what DeCosta pulled off last night. But how, you ask? Under the guise of the over-used mantra that “we took the best player on our board who fell to us.” Sure, you might say, isn’t that what Ozzie Newsome always preached? Isn’t that what the Wizard of Ozzie always did?
Well, yes – and no. You see, the mantra isn’t entirely accurate. You’re a genius when the best player on your board who falls to you unexpectedly is a player that you actually need. That’s Terrell Suggs, for example, when you need an edge rusher and edge setter. That apparently was Lamar Jackson when you need a quarterback. And so on.
But are you a genius – and have you made your team more likely to win the championship this year – when that “player on your board” plays a position that is arguably the team’s first or second biggest strength? When you invest your most valuable draft day capital on a position where you don’t need a player? The answer is no, and I don’t care how good you think the player is (and I’ll get to that).
And then you follow that up by creating another giant hole on your roster and get back into the first round. What move do you make? Do another “we took the best player on our board” for a position of (yes) need, but a fourth priority need (at best)? I don’t think so, though I’ll discuss the Brown trade below.
Ladies and gentlemen, this isn’t wise. The best pass rushers are gone. The Ravens still need a slot corner. They still need a defensive lineman or two. And now, they need a number two wide receiver, after letting three of top six wide receiver prospects pass them by.
Day One Recap – So, It’s Kyle Hamilton, You Say?
Admittedly, I did no real review of Kyle Hamilton as it just seemed inconceivable to me that the Ravens would go safety. No tape study on this one. Hamilton is 6’4, 220 pounds, a giant safety. Let me just run with what people say about him. Let’s accept the notion that he’s the best safety prospect in years who can be used at all three levels of the field, blitzing, smothering tight ends, tackling at an elite level, etc., etc. He did it all on tape, and the tape doesn’t lie, they say.
I’ll accept all that, but with one big caveat. The tape might not lie, but neither does the stopwatch. Hamilton ran a 4.59 forty at the combine on a track that everyone said was super-fast. Let’s give that time some context. Troy Polamalu ran a 4.38 forty. He was lightening. Ed Reed ran a 4.57 forty. Hey, Hamilton’s pretty close to Reed so 4.59 is not too bad, right? But Hamilton is a Polamalu-type safety who will play all over the field. Hamilton is not a back-end Ed Reed – that’s Marcus Williams.
Then, on his pro-day Hamilton ran – get this – an absolutely atrocious 4.70 forty (which was his best run of the day). Let me contextualize that one. In the entire 21 year history of the NFL combine, only 38 safeties ran a time of 4.70 or worse. Of those players, only eight were drafted, and none – zero – before the fifth round. Think about that. And only two of those guys became long-term starters and neither of them became Pro-Bowlers.
Now this is not a situation where, from a standard deviation perspective, Hamilton was just a little slower than the norm. No, this is a case where he’s three standard deviations off. When you’re that far off the norm, that gets my attention. Hamilton is in a territory where no one has ever wound up as a Pro-Bowl caliber player. Slow is as slow does.
DeCosta and company can explain, as they did, that his tape was sensational. I’m sure it was. But this man is uniquely slow. Now I’m not saying he can’t succeed. We’ll see. But there’s a reason he slid down the board – a very good reason. Sure, Terrell Suggs slid down because he timed slow, but edge defenders aren’t tasked with running 40 yards on a play. Safeties are. There’s a reason the Ravens received no offers at pick 14 when Hamilton was on the board.
Maybe I could be convinced to take a lead-footed Hamilton if I needed him. But the Ravens didn’t need him. No one would have batted an eye if the Ravens passed on him. This is a puzzler of puzzlers.
Day One Recap – So, Marquise Brown Must Go, You Say?
Marquise Brown was a nice player for the Ravens. He fell short of being the superstar DeCosta thought he was getting on draft night 2019. But he served a good role and made a solid number two receiver. He dropped a few too many balls. He was soft with the ball in his hands. But he took the top off. He caught 91 balls last year.
The kid was apparently disgruntled. We don’t know why. Heck, he didn’t even tell his best friend (Lamar) that he was unhappy. Go figure. A lot of players in today’s world are disgruntled. Some of them are moved on, others stay with their team and perhaps stay or perhaps go later on. From the team’s perspective it’s all a matter of when you resolve the situation.
I won’t second guess DeCosta’s conclusion that he needed to move on from Brown. DeCosta has all of the relevant information, I don’t. Perhaps Brown could have played through 2022 on the Ravens, perhaps not, we’ll never know. But I’ll accept DeCosta’s judgment. For certain he then knew that he must find a replacement number two receiver. Arguably, he could have upgraded from Brown last night. He chose not to. And he had days to prepare for this, because the Brown trade was apparently agreed upon earlier this week.
I give DeCosta good marks in the trading of Brown. He received a value for Brown equivalent to the 28th pick in the first round. Frankly, that’s an exceptional value for Brown. Kudos to DeCosta for getting maximum value for Brown. But it’s what he did with that capital that really leaves me hanging.
Day One Recap – So, It’s Tyler Linderbaum, You Say?
I lead here by noting that, from a value perspective, Linderbaum was drafted exactly where he should have been drafted. I expected him to go in the bottom of round one and he did. From that viewpoint, it’s not as if Linderbaum was a steal; he was fair value.
Linderbaum is a very good player. But as I noted in his profile, which you can read here, his strengths don’t entirely mesh with what the Ravens do to this point. When a player’s shortcomings are biological there’s just nothing you can do about it. Therefore, if you take that player you have to adapt your approach to what the player can do. In Linderbaum’s case, this implies that the Ravens need to reorient some of their running game approach towards zone-blocking schemes which is where Linderbaum can really shine.
The Ravens in 2022 might revert back towards a larger running game focus than what they tried in 2021. That’s what Brown’s trade away suggests though we obviously don’t know what the Ravens might do on days two and three of the draft. If running does become an elevated focus, then more zone schemes should be utilized. I left Linderbaum off my Ravens Big Board because he didn’t best fit the scheme. But he’s a very good football player.
Pick 25: Linderbaum Versus Jermaine Johnson
Was drafting Linderbaum at pick 25 the smart thing to do? We can argue whether center was a major need. To me, it was at best a fourth need (edge, slot corner, and defensive line being greater needs for sure). It was probably, knowing Brown was being traded, a fifth best need, also behind a number two receiver.
Let’s assume you have two players on your board at pick 25. One (Tyler Linderbaum) you grade around slot ten. The second (Jermaine Johnson) you grade around pick 32. One player (Linderbaum) plays a position that is your fourth or fifth greatest need. The other (Johnson) plays a position of your top need. What do you do?
There’s no doubt the Ravens graded Linderbaum higher – much higher – than Jermaine Johnson. After all, in the end they passed on Johnson three times, so they just didn’t like him anywhere near as much as I did. But I’ll tell you, unless they had Johnson dramatically lower than pick 32 – something like pick 40 or lower, I’m selecting Johnson.
What we don’t know as we sit here is whether there was a red flag on Johnson that was well hidden. The only thing I heard was that some teams were turned off by his interview. Some have pointed to his earlier-life’s history. It must be the case that there are flags there that we just don’t know about. Because, as they say, the tape doesn’t lie, and Johnson’s tape was excellent. Plus, Johnson dominated at the Senior Bowl. I’m concluding that the Ravens, perhaps from interactions at the Senior Bowl, didn’t like Johnson the person – and to the point of taking him off their board altogether.
I’ll say this. I’m hoping that I was wrong about Jermaine Johnson. I don’t want to root against anyone but if Johnson turns into a star – and we passed on him with our giant edge rusher need – I won’t care how good Hamilton becomes. DeCosta went out on a big limb last night.
What the Ravens Didn’t Do Last Night
Knowing they had traded away Marquise Brown – which no one other than Arizona knew – the Ravens could have done what the Titans did at pick 18 when they traded away A.J. Brown. The Ravens could actually have upgraded from Marquise Brown with a number one receiver at pick 14. In fact, they could have drafted who the Titans drafted – Treylon Burks, the big-bodied A.J.-Brown type receiver that the Ravens were lacking. Just pointing it out.
And then there’s still Ronnie Stanley. I’m not sure we really learned anything last night about Stanley’s prospects. The top three tackles were all gone by pick nine. Is Stanley good to go? Maybe day two or three will tell us.
What’s Next
As we head into day two tonight and day three tomorrow, the Ravens now have the following draft slots:
Round Two: 45
Round Three: 76
Round Four: 110, 119, 128, 130, 139, 141
Round Six: 196
Before last night’s trade the Ravens had another third round (pick 100) that they sent to Arizona, and they added pick 130 from Buffalo.
They still need an edge rusher. They still need a nickel corner. The Ravens still need defensive line help. They now need a number two wide receiver. You can’t get all of that done with just two picks total in rounds two and three. But with sixth fourth rounders, they have some ammunition to move up – today and tomorrow. There are a bunch of corners on the board tonight who I think could really help the Ravens in the slot (Booth, Gordon and McCreary). There are several edge players left, though none are totally clean (Mafe, Ebiketie, Paschal, Williams).
Two wide receivers I hadn’t previously reviewed (wrongly believing the Ravens didn’t need a wideout) are available (Christian Watson and Skyy Moore). I think they’ll both go in round two, and I’m guessing the Ravens don’t spend round two capital on filling that slot. I prefer Watson over Moore if I had to choose.
But DeCosta was so surprising last night that maybe he’ll shock me again and draft the injured David Ojabo. Who knows?
