Pope Francis believes that growing populism threatens global stability. His fear, which seems to be widely echoed, is that populism will lead to irrationality. In turn, irrationality will lead to the election of another Hitler. Is he right? Should we fear populism? Did it previously lead to the election of Adolf Hitler? In today’s world does populism lead to Hitler?
A Primer on Populism
Populism is a concept with different meanings in different contexts. It arises in democratic states. It can arise when a large segment of the population sees its government as unresponsive. Similarly, it can flourish when the population sees its government as incompetent. A corrupt government that functions only for the benefit of a narrow group can also foment populism. Populism can grow when the population views its government as controlled by elites.
Populism can exist on both sides of the political spectrum. Populism’s most notorious historical formulation is the rise of Adolf Hitler and Nazism. As a consequence, the word “populism” is often associated with right-wing political philosophy, and has received a distinctly unpleasant connotation.
But this connotation is unfair, and the portrayal is inaccurate. Populism is characterized as an uprising by the masses against unresponsive, repressive, or corrupt governments.
Populism Created the United States
The rise of populism can be a decidedly good event. Indeed, the creation of the United States was a direct result of the rise of populism. The founding fathers of the United States led a populist uprising.
The Declaration of Independence reflects these principles: “[W]henever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these [rights], it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government. . . . The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States.” Thomas Jefferson then listed in this great document a litany of facts to support this claim of injuries and usurpations.
Incumbent power holders view populism in a sinister manner. Those power holders are of course at risk to a populist movement. But populist movements are a natural by-product of any democracy; the right of the people to combine and challenge their government.
The belief that populist movements are driven by the “less educated” or the less sophisticated leads to fear of populism. The inference is that the “masses” are easily misled by a leader in a manner that threatens the foundations of democracy – freedom and the rights reflected in the American Bill of Rights (among others). Pope Francis expresses this concern.
Did Populism Lead to Hitler? Hitler Was Not Elected
Pope Francis expressed his concern regarding the rise of populism in Europe by reference to 1933 Germany. He stated that “Hitler didn’t steal the power, his people voted for him, and then he destroyed his people.” But, in fact, Hitler did steal the power and the people did not vote for him.
A Little History Regarding the Rise of Nazi Germany
Hitler did not assume power at the German ballot box. In fact, he was soundly defeated in the elections leading up to his becoming German Chancellor and the end of the Weimar Republic in Germany. Did populism lead to Hitler? No.
The consequences from the Treaty of Versailles, the Great Depression, and other factors combined to lead to a wave of populism in Germany. By the early 1930’s, large populist movements existed on both the left (Communist Party) and right (Nazi Party) sides of the political spectrum.
With this brief backdrop, here are the specific events that resulted in Hitler’s assumption of power.
The 1932 Presidential Elections
The German presidential election of 1932 was between 84-year old World War I hero and incumbent Paul von Hindenburg, Communist Party nominee Ernst Thalmann, Theodor Duesterberg of the Stahlhelm Party, and Hitler. Hindenburg stood for re-election in an attempt to prevent Hitler from ascending to the presidency. The German constitution contemplated a two round system. The first round required that a winning candidate must receive more than 50% of the vote. A second round would be held if the 50% threshold was not met. The second round required that a winning candidate must receive a simple plurality of the votes.
Hindenburg won the first round in mid-March. He garnered 49.6% of the votes, just barely missing the 50% threshold. Hitler received only 30.1% of the votes cast. The second round was held one month later. In that April election Hindenburg won an outright majority, with 53% of the vote. Hitler came in a distant second with 36.8% of the vote.
Nazi Party Popularity Declined Before Hitler Assumed Power
Nazi party popularity peaked in the Reichstag (the German parliament) elections of July, 1932. There, the Nazis garnered 37.3% of the vote and became the largest party in the Reichstag. But they were not a majority. Meanwhile, violence swelled in the German streets, led by both the Communists and the Nazis.
A second parliamentary election was held in November, 1932. This time, the German public turned significantly away from the Nazis. The Nazis suffered significant losses. With two million fewer votes, they totalled only 33.1% of the votes cast. They lost 35 seats in the Reichstag.
Hindenburg Capitulates to Hitler
During the summer of 1932 through early 1933, Hitler continued to maneuver while a weakened Hindenburg lost the will to resist him. Hitler’s rise accelerated beginning in late May, 1932, as Hindenburg appointed Franz von Papen as German Chancellor. Papen lasted until December, 1932 when he was replaced by Kurt von Schleicher.
However, Papen continued to hold considerable sway over Hindenburg. He also believed, in one of history’s worse miscalculations, that he could control Hitler. He therefore told Hitler that he could cause Hindenburg to make Hitler chancellor if Hitler would then appoint Papen vice chancellor.
In January, 1933, an exhausted Hindenburg did just that, as he appointed Hitler chancellor. Hitler outwitted Papen, who was unable to control him. Making matters worse, opposition parties failed to unite to stop Hitler. The Reichstag dissolved soon thereafter. Hitler immediately proceeded to expand his powers as chancellor. In March, 1933, a reconstituted Reichstag effectively ended the Weimer Republic and German democracy with the passage of the Enabling Act. Within a year, Hitler was dictator.
Did Populism Lead to Hitler? The German Public Had Turned Away From Hitler
The German people rejected Hitler by a large majority. It was the final presidential election in the Weimar Republic. Hitler received only 36.8% of the vote. Further, the final Reichstag elections held in the Weimar Republic in 1932 resulted in the Nazi party actually losing almost two million votes from the prior election in July, 1931. Did populism lead to Hitler? Certainly not at the ballot box.
Populism in Today’s World
Does populism lead to Hitler? Should we be concerned that populist movements in Europe could lead to the election of another extremist, as the Pope fears? The brutal failures of 20th century Nazism and Fascism are well documented. They leave little doubt as to what such extremism offers. No modern western dictator has assumed power as the direct result of the ballot box. It fascist Italy, King Emmanuel III appointed Mussolini prime minister. The King capitulated from fear. Could Turkey soon become an example?
Notwithstanding this history, there is palpable concern that the ballot box will bring dark days ahead to Europe. Could European populism lead to Hitler? Marine Le Pen is President of the right-wing National Front in France. She is the leading European political persona who would best represent what Pope Francis apparently fears the most. But even she trails in the three-candidate polls for this year’s French elections. More significantly, she is far behind in all of the two-candidate polls, and most observers feel her odds of winning the French presidency are long.
The rise of right-wing populism in Europe is just the latest example of why populist movements occur. It always starts with an unresponsive government that is often-times controlled by elites. The British people rejected the European Union government. They concluded that the EU unacceptably intruded on British sovereignty. Other populations within the EU have a series of complaints of a government structure that fails to address a variety of their concerns.
Violent revolution against a true democratic form of government is never supportable. But unresponsive, elitist government is not, in the end, democratic. Which would make Jefferson right: “I hold it that a little rebellion now and then is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical.”
