I hope to have a subsequent post this week drawing comments from the Chargers game and towards the Rams game. Below are a few idle thoughts coming out of the bye week.
Kyle Hamilton
Readers are aware of my view that Hamilton is really two different players. I’ve argued that when he’s aligned in the slot or in the box (i.e., when he is at the line and coming forward) he is outstanding. Hamilton has made a plethora of impact plays from that positioning; sacks, tackles for loss, beating blockers and disrupting plays, etc. But when Hamilton is aligned on the back end as one of the Ravens’ two deep safeties in cover two, he’s just ordinary.
Pro Football Focus – for what it’s worth – actually reviewed Hamilton from these two perspectives. Under their mathematical rating system, Hamilton scores out as the seventh highest-graded safety in the league to date this season. But they point out the nuances behind this rating. When Hamilton lines up in the slot or the box, PFF scores him as the second best slot/box defender in the league, with his coverage grade from that positioning being the best in the league.
On the other hand, when Hamilton lines up as a true free safety, he ranks exactly in the middle of the league: 36th out of 72 safeties who played more than 150 snaps at that position. PFF also observes that as a free safety Hamilton struggles as a run defender, which is no surprise given that (in my view) his athletic skillset is least effective in the open field. As a run defender, PFF notes, Hamilton ranks as the fourth lowest ranked free safety in the league.
Mike Macdonald doesn’t need this data to support what he already knows. Hamilton should be in the box or over the slot as often as possible. Now I worry a bit more about Hamilton over the slot receiver depending on who the receiver is. I have not seen any evidence to convince me that he can effectively cover quick or explosive receivers in the slot. Looking at the Ravens upcoming schedule, there’s no way, for example, that I would task him with manning up against Diontae Johnson. Against the Jaguars, Christian Kirk (if healthy) could pose some problems. I think that Jauan Jennings of the 49ers will be a challenge. And the Rams frequently run Cooper Kupp out of the slot. We will see how Macdonald handles these matchups, but I’m not as confident that – against these players – Hamilton is the right matchup.
The 49ers
As I penned last week before their destruction of the Eagles, the 49ers are (hands down) the best team in the NFL. Their three week losing streak was the result of key player injuries, including Trent Williams (the best left tackle in the league), Debo Samuel, and Christian McCaffrey, among others.
Although I’ll get into this a bunch more before the Ravens-49ers matchup, the 49ers’ roster is without holes. On offense, they have elite players at each skill position. Don’t overlook Brock Purdy. He’s a cool customer with excellent touch and generally very good decision making. There are no major holes in the defense either. This team is a notch above everyone else, including the Ravens (if only because the 49ers’ left tackle spot is superbly manned). Which brings me back to . . .
More on Ronnie Stanley
We’ve known for months now that Ronnie Stanley is just a shadow of himself. It’s surprising that so many close Ravens’ observers are only now focusing on his play at the left tackle position. With Stanley, it’s unrealistic to expect any material improvement this year. The player I see on film – week after week – can’t anchor. And when you can’t anchor you wind up reaching and lunging. Power punchers have a comparatively easy time knocking you off your spot. And twitchy speed rushers leave you off balance as your feet just can’t reset with proper balance.
Do not expect any significant improvement from Stanley. Left tackle is the Ravens Achilles heal as we go through the rest of this season.
New Offensive Concepts for the Balance of the Season
The Ravens are blessed with, arguably, the best threesome of elite “twitch” players that I’ve ever seen. If you can think of a better threesome from that perspective, drop me a note. Lamar, Zay Flowers, and Keaton Mitchell, in combination on the field, should be impossible to defend if Todd Monken consistently puts them out there, and uses a bit more creativity.
Consider lining up both Flowers and Mitchell in the backfield pre-snap. Use fake jet sweep action from Rashod Bateman while pitching in the opposite direction to either Flowers or Mitchell. Or, between Flowers and Mitchell have one player run a wheel route while the other circles underneath in the flat, creating isolation on one and/or the other player. With creativity, either player could be alone against a linebacker. I can visualize a run-pass option, where one running back is moving in line while the other goes to pitch-out, with Lamar making his decision based on how the defensive end/outside linebacker reacts. And much more. Monken has all of the toys he needs to drive defenses crazy.
First Place Seed?
I hate to see injuries to any players because the fun in winning is in beating the best. But the injury to Trevor Lawrence enhances the Ravens chances of getting to the AFC top seed position. NFL rules dictate that the tiebreaker among division winners is first based on the outcome of head-to-head matchups. If just the Ravens and Dolphins tie at the top, the winner of that game wins the top seed. It’s more complicated if there is a three-way tie at the top (in which case the conference records of all three teams is dispositive). Obviously, the Ravens matchup with Miami has enormous implications.
The schedules of these two teams favors the Dolphins. Four of their last five games are at home, consisting in order, of Tennessee, the Jets, the Cowboys, and the Bills. As I see it, Miami will be heavily favored to beat the Titans and the Jets, with much tougher battles against Dallas and, potentially, Buffalo.
The Ravens received a real break with the injury to Lawrence. They should be favorites in their next two games against the Rams and the Jaguars before their very difficult challenge in San Francisco. After those three games the probability that the Ravens and Dolphins remain tied is reasonably good. Then they play each other, with the season ender for the Ravens being Pittsburgh (I would guess with Kenny Pickett). Meanwhile, the Dolphins simultaneously face a Bills team that could well be out of the playoff hunt. Lurking always are the Chiefs (with only one conference loss so far), who could win out. If the Ravens go 4-1 the rest of the way and the Chiefs win-out, the Chiefs will get the top seed. It will be fascinating.
Any Additions to the Roster?
The Ravens designated Pepe Williams to return, and they have until December 12 to decide whether to bring him back. It’s hard to see how Williams gets activated, given the current cornerback group of Stephens, Humphrey, Darby, Ya-Sin, Maulet, and Armour-Davis. Because Williams is limited to slot duty and given Maulet’s solid play, I’m not sure there’s room for Pepe. Ya-Sin has been a weak link for much of the season. Notably, he did not play a single defensive down in the Chargers’ game. As I’ve highlighted in prior posts Ya-Sin’s play has been wildly inconsistent, marred by some serious breakdowns. Yet, he provides insurance on the outside, something that Williams does not. But it is likely Ya-Sin who is at risk if the Ravens opt for Williams.
Is there any possibility of the return of Tyus Bowser? The mystery continues but one has to doubt that we will ever see Bowser in a Ravens uniform again. The Ravens would save $5.5 million against the cap in 2024 if they let Bowser go. They are going to need all of the cap space that they can get. But we’ll get to cap issues in the offseason.
