This is part 1 of the Ravens 2022 Comprehensive Draft Report. The entire draft analysis that follows here (and on other soon-to-be published posts) is solely from the Ravens’ perspective. This part one consists of a round one analysis. What do the Ravens most need? Which players fit their needs? What first round strategies are available? And so on.
This is a very deep draft because of the Covid impact on the 2021 draft – there are many more draftable prospects this year. As a result, I’ve broken my review down into several parts. For one, individual prospect analyses are now provided in separate groupings in different postings to the website, which will be available shortly. There’s a lot of information there – perhaps too much for many readers, but you can dig through the materials as far as you want. The quarterback position is ignored. The safety position didn’t offer much given that the Ravens would only be looking at safeties below the fifth round in my view. Otherwise, there’s a lot to take a gander at in the player reports.
So, let’s dig in.
Ravens Draft Slots
The Ravens currently have ten selections in the draft. For purposes of evaluating potential trades of draft pick slots, I’ve decided this year to use the Rich Hill Points Model for ascribing value (moving away from Jimmy Johnson) because it seems to better mirror trades of recent seasons. I also show the traditional Jimmy Johnson values, but I’ll use the Rich Hill model. So here are the Ravens slots, and the amount of draft capital in points that each slot represents:
| Pick Number | Rich Hill Points | Jimmy Johnson Points |
| 14 | 325 | 1100 |
| 45 | 131 | 450 |
| 76 | 61 | 210 |
| 100 | 37 | 100 |
| 110 | 31 | 56 |
| 119 | 26 | 44 |
| 128 | 22 | 37 |
| 139 | 17 | 36 |
| 141 | 16 | 15 |
| 196 | 5 | 13 |
| Total: | 671 | 2,061 |
There are always several concepts that require analysis before I jump to answering the question of who the Ravens should draft in round 1. In no particular order . . .
The Quality of Talent at the Top Part of Round 1 – and Quarterback Talk
This is not a year where there is tremendous star power at the top of Round 1. There are only a handful of players who present – to me – as almost-lock superstars. For the Ravens, what makes matters worse is that none of this year’s quarterbacks are seen as high-probability franchise QBs. That matters a great deal for the Ravens picking at slot 14, because one wonders how many teams will feel pressured to trade up into the top ten. I take a deeper look at this situation below.
Let’s take a closer look at the teams in the top ten. The Jets and the Giants both have two picks. The Jets will not draft a quarterback at either pick four or pick ten. The Giants claim they are satisfied with Daniel Jones (maybe, maybe not) but even if they aren’t I don’t see them using either pick five or pick seven to draft from among this year’s group of quarterbacks. So as of this writing, those collective four picks will be used to select non-QBs, thereby greatly reducing the probability that one of the Ravens’ pick 14 targets will be available.
When we look at the other nine picks in front of the Ravens, three teams arguably could be looking at quarterback: Carolina at pick six, Atlanta at pick eight, and Seattle at pick nine. Now I’m immediately discounting Seattle as a quarterback candidate. They have two number one picks in 2023 in what is supposed to be a terrific quarterback class. I’m assuming they’ll wait until 2023 to go QB shopping.
Carolina and Atlanta, on the other hand, are teams that could hunt this year. Between them, I’m assuming at least one of them will take the bait. But one is not enough to help drive a Ravens target down the Board. Therefore, we need to see some early first round trading whereby someone moves up to grab a QB. My guess for the most likely team to do so is New Orleans, as the Saints own picks 16 and 19 and are in great position to move up. The Saints targeting pick seven from the Giants makes the most sense because that allows them to jump in front of the Falcons.
In all, early round one trading for at least one team targeting a QB is likely essential for the Ravens hopes to land the players I describe below.
Round One Analysis: Ravens Needs – Left Tackle
For this draft, it all starts with Ronnie Stanley. Do the Ravens have a good read on the likelihood of his playing this season and, if so, at what level of play? Fans will not know the answer to these questions. And perhaps the Ravens themselves won’t know the answers. But we know one thing for sure. If the Ravens are going to be a playoff team in 2022, they must protect Lamar Jackson. Last year, Alejandro Villanueva gave up 17 sacks and countless pressures, and Lamar could not hold up. He is the Ravens’ franchise player and must be protected. And the 2022 defense is not going to carry the Ravens to the playoffs no matter how many starters they find in this draft. The offense will make or break 2022.
If there’s real doubt as to whether Ronnie Stanley can play, then the Ravens must first look at the left tackle position in the draft. Morgan Moses and Ja’Wuan James are both right tackles and cannot be the answer on the left side. It’s left tackle first – if there’s a worthy pick at 14 – if there’s a real chance Stanley can’t go in 2022.
Round One Analysis: Ravens Needs – Defense
Next, there are holes all over the defense. Edge rusher, slot corner, and defensive lineman are all critical needs. Inside linebacker is not far behind. Even outside corner is a critical need.
Which Defensive Personnel Strategy?
Before I delve into these various needs, a minute or two on defensive approaches. From the data I’ve seen (and I’m sure the Ravens have better data), all but four NFL teams ran three or more receiver sets on over 50% of their plays last year. Having at least three cover corners – one for the slot – is an absolute necessity for a defense to be consistently successful.
Layer that reality over with quarterback release times and scrambling ability. To be assured of making the playoffs the Ravens must win their division. We know they will face Joe Burrow and DeShaun Watson twice. Burrow has one of the faster average release times in the league, at 2.69 seconds. In 2020, Watson had one of the slower times at 2.85 seconds but Watson’s a scrambler and his average intended air yards per throw was one of the highest (9) in the league (this is the average depth in yardage per pass). Watson will likely shorten that distance, and thereby improve his release time, with the Browns.
This little illustration is meant to frame the question of whether a defense should focus first on finding players who can sack/pressure the quarterback, or finding three corners who can cover three receivers. And, if you focus on sacks and pressures, tactically do you do it with four men or by blitzing with more men? Because we know – for certain – that if you are forced to blitz Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow and fail to timely get there – they will kill you.
A Word on First Round Defensive Linemen
The league has obviously changed over the last 15 years. In 2006, the Ravens drafted Haloti Ngata at pick 12. Ngata was a run stuffer supreme and was also a good pocket pusher who could get to the QB on occasion. He played three downs. But the NFL today is a three-receiver plus set league. Great run stuffing defensive linemen are not on the field nearly as much as Ngata was. Only the rare one is on the field on third down. There’s no escaping the reality that, as great of a run stuffer as any defensive lineman might be, if he’s not on the field on passing downs, he’s just not worth top-end draft capital. It’s that simple. And there just aren’t that many run stuffers who can collapse the pocket with regularity. I don’t see one this year.
Pass Rusher or Cover Corner?
As between sack artist or cover corner, which is/should be the Ravens priority? This raises two questions. First, which of these positions is deepest in the draft? Which position could the Ravens have the highest confidence that they could forego in round 1 and still find a starter in round 2?
Second, which position offers “can’t miss” type prospects at the top of the draft? I’d rather draft a “can’t miss” prospect – the guy who will very likely perform at a Pro Bowl level for multiple years – at the one of these two positions where (if) such a player exists.
I believe the answer to the first question this year is fairly much a push. This is a deep class for both edge rushers and cornerbacks. But the answer to the second question is not. Among the edge rusher and cornerback prospects (Aidan Hutchinson aside because he won’t be available to the Ravens) in my opinion the top two “can’t miss” prospects are both cornerbacks.
Ravens First Round Targets at Pick 14 If It’s Left Tackle
If it’s offensive tackle – and more particularly a left tackle who can pass protect – Charles Cross is the clear cut winner from a needs perspective. I see Cross as the best pass blocking left tackle on the board, and as a player who has a “chance” of being there for the Ravens. You can read much more about Cross when I post the individual offensive tackles analysis. Yes, Evan Neal and Ikem Ekwonu are more ballyhooed and far more likely to be gone by 14 (in fact, I give it little chance that either player will be there at 14). But frankly, neither are as well polished today as Cross is as a pass blocker; Neal and Ekwonu are each supreme run blockers.
The other player to consider here is Trevor Penning. See his player profile here. Penning is a massive man coming from a small school who is a tremendous athlete with outstanding upside. He’s not quite in Cross’ class yet as a pass blocking left tackle. But his ceiling as an all-around tackle may be higher. I think pick 14 is a little high for him where his development currently stands. But, if the Ravens’ need for a left tackle is greater than I think (i.e., Stanley is in worse shape than we know), I believe the Ravens will take Penning if Cross is off the board.
On the other hand, if the Ravens are satisfied to either take their chances with Ronnie Stanley, or believe that they can find a competent left tackle lower in lower rounds (discussed elsewhere), then they can focus on the defensive side of the ball. But if it’s left tackle, it’s an easy pick for me:
Charles Cross if available. Trevor Penning if Cross is gone.
Defensive Line
Right off the bat I’ll comment that there’s no way I would draft the Combine wiz Jordan Davis at pick 14. And there are numerous reasons why. For one, he simply is not a pass rusher. His pass rush win rate in 2021, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), was a mere 8.1%. Over his entire four year career he had seven sacks. But perhaps the biggest stat that sticks out to me regarding Davis being way over-rated from a draft-board perspective is how little Davis played.
In 2021, Davis played an absolutely miniscule 25 snaps per game. Think about that. And in 2020 he played a still paltry 33 snaps per game. These numbers are incredibly low. There’s just no way that low volume of play is acceptable at pick 14. And obviously one has to have conditioning concerns about Davis. Now Davis can be as fast as lightening – and he is for a 341 pound player. And he can be a tremendous Combine performer – which he was. But I just don’t care for purposes of spending draft capital.
Davis is a run-stuffer supreme – the best prospect in the draft for that purpose. But pure run stuffers just aren’t worth top-end draft capital in today’s NFL. Sure, there are prognosticators who proclaim that Davis is bound to be a better pass rusher in the NFL than he was at Georgia. He can’t help but bull rush his way to the quarterback, they’ll claim. But he hasn’t done it so far. And he hasn’t been on the field much either. I hope Davis gets picked in front of the Ravens – it gives the Ravens a better shot at having one of the next three players fall towards them.
No Jordan Davis!
Edge Rusher and Cornerback
The Ravens are likely to be in a spot where, to get one of the three players discussed below, they will have to trade up. And as a brief reference point, to move up from pick 14 to, say, pick 10, would cost the Ravens pick 100 and probably one of their lower fourth rounders. We could argue whether, in a draft class this deep and with all of the Ravens’ needs, they should make such a move. That’s a fair debate. But I’m arguing that if one of the three following players is still on the board at 10, they should end the debate by trading up to take the player. Why? Because each has multi-year Pro Bowl potential in my view.
Who are the three players that I think the Ravens should target? There are clearly two cover cornerbacks who stand apart from the rest: Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner and Derek Stingley. For an analysis of each player, see the detailed positional analysis in another post. Suffice it to say that Gardner is seen, almost universally, as the “cleaner” pick and the probability of him lasting past pick seven is extremely low. Realistically, of the three I think Gardner is not really “targetable” by the Ravens because they would have to surrender simply too much draft capital to get him.
Trading Up to Pick Stingley
That leaves Stingley. I love the player, Lisfranc-surgery included. I believe Stingley has the cover skills of a multi-year All Pro. If he’s on the Board by pick nine, I’m trying to find a way to get him. I don’t think he has any chance of lasting to pick 14. I can’t see him lasting past the Vikings at pick 12. It’s reasonably likely the Seahawks grab him at pick nine. If they don’t, the Ravens likely have to move in front of the Commanders at 11 to get him. That means trading up to the Jets at pick ten. Now I think the Jets may go wide receiver at ten. If so, then the Ravens must trade with Commanders.
Stingley’s got superstar written all over him and it’s time for the Ravens to add a superstar to their defense. If you put him on the field with Marcus Peters, Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Williams, and Chuck Clark, you immediately have the best secondary in the NFL. Period. And Stingley allows you to walk away from Marcus Peters, if you want, after 2022. Would I give up a third and a fourth pick to get him? Yes. Would I give up my first third round pick to the Seahawks to get Stingley? Yes (pick 76 per the Rich Hill points system when added to pick 14 exactly matches the value of pick nine).
Then we turn to the edge player who I think is the best (outside Aidan Hutchinson). It’s not Kayvon Thibodeaux, who I believe is over-rated. See the detailed analysis to be published. No, I think the best pure edge player not named Hutchinson is Jermaine Johnson of Florida State. Now Johnson’s a player who could actually fall to the Ravens at 14. It’s not likely, but it’s possible. Here’s how.
Getting Johnson: Trade Action In Front of the Ravens – QuarterbackS
In order for Johnson to slide to pick 14, several things likely have to happen. First, the Ravens need at least one team to trade up into the top ten for a quarterback in order to have a shot at either Stingley or Johnson. Two teams trading up would be fantastic. Whether it be one trade up or two, the Ravens need the Giants to be a team trading back, because otherwise the Giants are likely drafting two defenders with each of their first rounders. So let’s convert one of those would-be Giants defenders into a quarterback.
It’s a realistic possibility that the Giants will trade back if there’s someone looking to go up for a quarterback.
Getting johnson: Trade Action In Front of the Ravens – WIde Receivers
From pick eight down, whether through trade or via the selections of the teams currently slotted, the Ravens likely need to see some of the top wide receivers get picked from what is viewed as a wide receiver group with up to seven first round caliber players.
The current draft order after the Giants is:
8. Falcons
9. Seahawks
10. Jets
11. Commanders
12. Vikings
13. Texans (also have pick three)
From this list the Jets definitely need (and clearly want) a receiver. Maybe they acquire Deebo Samuel (who knows) which would put the 49ers at pick ten likely targeting a wideout. If the Jets are drafting at ten, I’d be betting that they grab whoever they see as the best receiver in the draft. But whether it’s the Jets or the 49ers, I think the first wide-out has a good chance of going off the board at pick 10. But it’s not a certainty.
It’s hard to figure what the Commanders will do; they could certainly draft a corner, but they don’t need a pass rusher. They could want a wideout. From a Jermaine Johnson perspective, I’d like to see the Commanders stay in pick 11.
The Vikings don’t have a critical need at wideout (though Adam Thielen is getting older and wasn’t as effective last year). With the Vikings having signed Za’Darius Smith to go with Danielle Hunter, they definitely don’t need a pass rusher (though they would almost certainly grab Stingley). From a Johnson perspective, I would love to see the Vikings stand pat.
The Texans at pick 13 need everything. But that means they could certainly select Johnson if he’s there. Given that possibility, if Johnson is on the board at the Vikings pick 12, I would trade up with them to get Johnson. The cost: a fourth rounder.
In all, I’d love to see a run on wide receivers from pick ten on down to the Ravens at 14. Two teams trading up for a wideout – or one team trading up plus the Jets drafting a receiver at 10, would likely send Johnson down to at least pick 13. Therefore, I’d either trade with the Vikings per the above, or directly with the Texans if they are willing.
What I don’t want to see happen in order for my hope of having Johnson slide to pick 14 is for the Vikings to trade out of 12 to a team who wants Johnson.
The Packers stick out like a sore thumb as a team needing to trade up for a wide receiver. They lost Devante Adams and Marques Valdez-Scantling and must get a top talent to pair with Aaron Rogers (sorry, Sammy Watkins!). I’m not sure the Vikings at 12 would trade with Green Bay. Perhaps the Commanders would at 11. And the Eagles, who hold picks 15 and 18, could also be in the hunt to move up for a receiver, as could the Cowboys, the 49ers, and others.
In all, there are other teams’ trade scenarios where the Ravens stand pat at 14 and Johnson falls to them. That would be an absolute home run, and they’d still have their other nine picks. But what will it cost if they believe Johnson won’t last past pick nine?
Ravens’ Trade-Up Price
The trade up scenarios are straightforward. Trading to pick ten will cost the Ravens picks 100 and 141 (and maybe they also get back pick 163). Trading to pick 12 will cost them pick 128. To move up one pick to pick 13 will cost them pick 141 and probably receiving back pick 207 in Round 6. Arguably a little more or a little less in either case but this is a good ballpark. I’d be willing to move to any of these spots, at these prices, to get Johnson. And of course to get Stingley.
What If Gardner, Stingley, and Johnson Are All Gone?
Given the Ravens needs, if Gardner, Stingley, and Johnson are all off the board, and assuming the Ravens aren’t looking at a left tackle, is there anyone else the Ravens should select at pick 14? For me, there is one player I would take, if he’s there, without hesitation. But it’s a big-time long-shot that he will be last anywhere near there. And that’s Travon Walker of Georgia, arguably the most intriguing defensive player in the draft. It’s worth reading my detailed analysis of Walker in the player profile here.
The possibilities with Walker are many. He’s the most athletically gifted man of his size I’ve seen for many years. He could play the five-technique, arguably line up as a pure edge man, drop inside to the three technique on passing downs, and more. He is probably only limited by his processing capability, which can’t be dismissed. He’s played all along the defensive front and even dropped into coverage. One could make the case that in two or three years he could wind up as the best defensive player in this class, with proper coaching and hard work.
I still prefer Stingley over Walker from the Ravens’ perspective. If both Walker and Johnson are on the board at 14, I’d be happy with either one of them. And there’s no telling where Walker will go – perhaps number one, or in the top three, or perhaps he slides, who knows?
Is there anyone else at 14? The simple answer is no. There is one possibility which I discuss below, but other than that there just isn’t anyone else in the Ravens’ positions of need who are worth pick 14 draft capital. Sure, there are players at other positions – wide receiver and safety in particular – but nothing in their need positions.
Players to Pass on at Pick 14
This list definitely includes Tyler Linderbaum, who I think is dramatically over-rated from a draft capital perspective. See the draft profile of Linderbaum here. Here I disagree with a bunch of draft gurus. I do not see him as one of the all-time center prospects. But even if I’m wrong, in my view no center is worthy of pick 14.
This “pass” list obviously includes Jordan Davis, as described above. It includes DeVonte Wyatt who, given his domestic violence history, is likely off the Ravens’ board entirely and will probably fall quite far. Put Trent McDuffie in this group too. McDuffie is a very good player. But I see him settling in primarily as a nickel back in the NFL and I have a hard time drafting a nickel at pick 14 (though I could lower in the first round).
It also includes edge rusher George Karlaftis who I gave a round two grade. He’s just not juiced up enough to be a dominant edge player in my view. It includes inside linebacker Devin Lloyd. Lloyd is a first round talent but not at pick 14. I can’t imagine the Ravens drafting another inside linebacker at this point in time in round one. And it’s a tougher call with Trevor Penning, who I don’t think is quite ready to be a day one starting left tackle but who I’m high. Penning’s draft value is a bit lower into the 20’s in round one because his upside is so high. But if the Ravens take him there, it’s likely because they have to.
Keyvon Thibodeaux
The harder decision for the Ravens at 14 will be if Kayvon Thibodeaux winds up still on the board. Unlike most observers, I see some issues in Thibodeaux’s game. Take a look at the detailed report on Thibodeau when it’s posted. Simply said, I’m not in the camp that he’s a lock to become an elite edge player.
Is Thibodeaux worth pick 14? On talent alone, perhaps yes. But I believe there are issues with lack of effort, which I saw numerous times on the tape. And there are whispers about attitude, etc. I think there is a fair amount of risk for major disappointment from Thibodeaux. And in the top of round one I’m all about the risk/reward relationship – I don’t like a lot of risk in this pick. I’m sure the Ravens are in a good position to know whether Thibodeaux is an intangibles fit. And it seems highly unlikely he could fall this far. But I might let him fall further.
Now I won’t be massively disappointed if he falls to 14 and the Ravens take him. There’s still plenty to like about his game. And his selection by the Ravens would mean they resolved some of my concerns such that they see less risk – I presume; I’d give their staff the benefit of the doubt. But based on what I can see, I just don’t like the amount of risk I perceive in Thibodeaux.
Trade Down
Trading back is warranted if the Ravens picks for slot 14 are all gone. This is the year to do it because this draft is so deep, and the Ravens needs are so many.
This is a very good round one prospect group of wide receivers. As mentioned earlier, there will be numerous teams looking to spend first round capital on a bunch of these players. And, there could be several teams who want to trade up to 14 in search of a quarterback.
Quarterback hunters could definitely include the Saints, who sit at picks 16 and 19. Dare I mention the Steelers sitting at pick 20 (sure, it’s almost impossible to imagine a trade with them)? And it could possibly include the Eagles, sitting right behind the Ravens at pick 15 and also at pick 18.
My sense is that the Saints, if they want a quarterback, will trade up into the top 10. Who knows which quarterback they might target? I’m also guessing that the Steelers have a serious interest in Malik Willis, but if they don’t trade into the top 10 to get him (and if he’s not taken in the top 10) then the odds of his falling all the way to 20 are reasonably good, so they might gamble and sit tight.
Wide Receiver Hungry Trade Partners
From a wide receiver viewpoint, the Packers are the perfect trade partner for the Ravens. They simply must add a top-tier wideout talent. Green Bay has two first rounders (22 and 28). Assuming the Ravens would want pick 22, the trade value owed to the Ravens would be an additional 72 points. Green Bay has two second round picks – pick 53 is worth 106 points so the Ravens would likely have to package something like pick 110 or pick 119 to make that trade happen. Pick 59 is worth 91 points, so the Ravens would likely have to add pick 139 or 141 in a that package.
Or, if the Ravens are willing to drop all the way to pick 28, Green Bay adding pick 53 should make the deal work. In all these scenarios the Ravens would be adding a second round pick, which I think provides them with an excellent chance to find a starter in this draft. Trade me back!
Then there are the Cowboys sitting at pick 24 as another logical trade partner. Dallas needs to replace Amari Cooper. Dallas’ pick is worth 237 points, so the Cowboys offering their second round pick at number 56 might do the trick. Then there’s the Chiefs at picks 29 and 30, worth a combined 399 points. With the Ravens’ pick 14 worth 325 points, the Ravens would likely have to throw in pick 76 and maybe a little more to make that trade. Even the Eagles might want to move up one spot and that alone would nab the Ravens an additional fifth rounder. And there are others.
Round One Analysis: Who to Pick if the Ravens Trade Back?
This is the last big question to be answered. Who would I target if the Ravens draft at, say, pick 22 or 24? Two players jump out to me. First, cornerback Andrew Booth, Jr. I think Booth will wind up as an outstanding outside cover corner. There’s so much to like about his game. Take a look at his detailed write up when it’s posted.
Second, Trevor Penning would also look very good here. One could make a fair argument, as noted above, that Penning could wind up as the best all-around left tackle from this draft class. He’s not quite at the Charles Cross pass protection level yet but he has great upside. If Penning lasts this long and the Ravens conclude they have this need, Penning would be good value picking in the low 20s.
Much More to Come!
So that’s it for Part One of the Ravens 2022 Comprehensive Draft Analysis. Next up in the analysis is my Ravens big board, where I’ll prioritize each player – by draft round – that I believe the Ravens should pursue.
