A scandal in the French presidential election campaign involving the integrity of the leading candidate is feeding directly into the growing popular distrust of the political class. The new developments, centered on Republican party front-runner Francois Fillon, cast an ominous cloud over the hopes for a win by the mainstream candidate. It has ratcheted-up the unpredictability of the election outcome. It increases the possibility of a win by the outsider presidential candidates, far-right Front National candidate Marine Le Pen and newcomer Emmanuel Macron.
Allegations Hit at the Heart of Fillon’s Image
The scandal is the subject of a newly announced preliminary investigation into allegations that Mr. Fillon’s wife was paid a substantial government salary for work she never performed. The nature of the allegation itself hits at the core of Mr. Fillon’s reputation. He has carefully portrayed himself as an honorable man who served the public for 35 years without scandal. Mr. Fillon mocked former President Nicolas Sarkozy in the primary because Sarkozy had been the subject of legal investigations during his presidency. But Mr. Fillon’s image is now squarely in jeopardy, as are his presidential ambitions.
Polls had previously shown Mr. Fillon would likely face Ms. Le Pen in the second and final round of a presidential election. But the allegations have accelerated a plunge in Mr. Fillon’s popularity, according to a new poll. The poll indicates that Mr. Fillon lost 16 points in his approval rating since the prior poll last November. Mr. Fillon’s approval rating fell from 53% to a scant 38%.
The pall cast by this development is so great that Fillon appeared on French prime-time television. There, he proclaimed both that his wife performed the work, and that the payments were legal. Although he promised to continue his campaign, Fillon stated that “if my honor was harmed, if I were placed under formal investigation by a judge,” then he would step aside. However, because no magistrate has been appointed to investigate the Fillons, a formal legal investigation is unlikely before the elections.
A Fillon Withdrawal, Though Unlikely Now, Would Be a Major Event
Fillon’s withdrawal, were it to occur, would be a major turn of events. It would greatly increase the chances that an outsider presidential candidate would win the election. The man he defeated in the Republican primary, former prime minister Alain Juppe, indicated that he would not replace Fillon were Fillon to pull out. However, as the approval numbers reveal, the cloud over Fillon is large and already having an impact. And as Americans witnessed during the recent presidential campaign, a real or imagined scandal for a candidate has a serious impact. A long, unresolved scandal would boost the chances of those outsider presidential candidates.
It’s All About Trust – Or Distrust
The allegations against Fillon, even if untrue, are damaging. Mr. Fillon claims that the austerity plan France needs can only be successful if led by a person such as himself who is “beyond reproach.” Ironically (or not), a cornerstone of Fillon’s plan includes cutting 500,000 public-sector jobs and requiring state workers to work longer for less pay — a difficult plan to promote given the nature of the allegations against his wife.
The new twist in the French presidential campaign feeds directly into the public distrust of the political class in France. A poll conducted late last year indicated that 77% of the French people thought that French parliamentarians were corrupt. Polls conducted prior to announcement of the investigation into Mrs. Fillon showed Mr. Fillon slightly behind Ms. Le Pen, with independent centrist Emmanuel Macron right behind him. The French people have grown weary of ethical scandals in government. The hopes of these outside presidential candidates are certainly enhanced by claims of Mr. Fillon’s possible impropriety.
Outsider Presidential Candidates – Macron is Riding a Populist Wave
Mr. Macron is a former economy minister to Francois Hollande. A self-styled outsider, he has no electoral experience. He is riding a wave of popular support similar to that of President Trump in the United States. Mr. Macron has risen steadily in recent polls and campaigns on a promise to tear apart the “vacuous” political class. Like President Trump, he is promising major change, claiming that he will revolutionize French governance. Unlike President Trump, he admits that he is part of the elite of which he complains. He distinguishes himself as the respectable face of change and promises France a more “responsible” governing class.
The Future of the European Union – Be Wary and Beware
The French election may be turned upside-down and around. There is certainly a reasonable chance that Mr. Fillon fails to get into the second round. The result of a contest between the outsider presidential candidates, the populist newcomer Mr. Macron and the far-right Ms. Le Pen, is unknowable. The outcome of this uncertain election has enormous ramifications for the fate of the European Union, western political stability, and the world economy.