The 49ers are the NFL’s best. It’s a daunting challenge to beat San Francisco on the road.
This is the litmus test for how good the Ravens are. But does the game really matter, other than from the perspective of potentially playing them in the Super Bowl? For purposes of winning the top seed in the AFC, a loss to the 49ers is meaningless if the Ravens can beat Miami and Pittsburgh. So here’s an unusual Ravens thought: could we think the unthinkable and contemplate resting Ronnie Stanley and Marcus Williams? I don’t believe there’s any way John Harbaugh would do it, but it might make the most sense for a team with Super Bowl aspirations.
Let’s take a look back at the Jaguars game, and then a peak at San Francisco.
The Loss of Keaton Mitchell
Keaton Mitchell is irreplaceable this season. Mitchell’s loss is much bigger than that of Mark Andrews because of the added dimensions that Mitchell brings to the offense. And because of the tremendous stress Mitchell (in conjunction with the rest of the skill position players) places on opposing defenses. Readers know how I’ve loved Mitchell even before he played a down this year. You simply can’t find this type of talent, which makes it even more unbelievable that no team believed Mitchell worthy of a draft pick (including the Ravens).
How irreplaceable is Mitchell? Just look to last week and recall the pitch to the right play, where the edge was thoroughly contained by the Jaguars. Mitchell reversed field all the way back to the left sideline and raced around that edge there for a very big gain. No one else can do this (though I saw Gayle Sayers do it against the Baltimore Colts many moons ago). This kid was averaging over eight yards per carry. Lined up wide, he commanded cornerback coverage. His loss is enormous. At least when Andrews went down the Ravens had Likely. Let’s face it, Melvin Gordon doesn’t scare anyone anymore (though he can still catch the rock, hopefully without fumbling it).
Justice Hill deserves more carries. He has all year, to my eye. Hill runs tough, has very good vision, brings a good jump cut, and remains explosive. And he’s outstanding picking up the blitz, as well as catching the ball out of the backfield. I’d be very satisfied seeing Hill as the lead back, at this point.
Further Implication of Mitchell’s Loss
We should expect the Ravens ground attack will have greater difficulty going forward. And if the run game stalls, as it might, pass protection becomes even more critical if Lamar is forced to drop back more. This leads us back to the season-long bugaboo . . .
Left Tackle: Ronnie Stanley Versus Patrick Mekari
I know Stanley’s trying his best, but Treyvon Walker toyed with Ronnie on numerous pass protection attempts. (He toyed with Morgan Moses too). Based on all that we’ve seen, Patrick Mekari, who won’t be confused with Jonathan Ogden, probably gives the Ravens a better chance when Lamar is forced to throw it. It’s good that the Ravens are rotating the two of them (though unequally). That will make it easier to keep Mekari in the game – if the Ravens choose to do so – when throwing becomes essential.
I’m not a fan of putting Daniel Faalele on the right side in that situation. Right now, Moses is not himself from a pass protection perspective. But Faalele could endanger Lamar Jackson’s health going up against Joey Bosa, T. J. Watt, and the like. A little bit of Faalele from a rest perspective is fine, but not a full time assignment in forced passing situations.
The Offensive Line and More Two Receiver Sets
I didn’t count, but the Ravens clearly ran many more two receiver sets against Jacksonville than they had in a long time. Last week we saw a lot more “12” formations (two tight ends and two wide receivers) and even some 13 formations (three tight ends including Pat Ricard, and one wide receiver with one running back). Given the ineffectiveness of Stanley and the comparatively declined pass sets from Moses, adding that extra blocker is a great way to compensate. But the price is taking one (or more) of your receiving threats off the field. No doubt one of the tight ends can leak downfield. Sometimes that’s more effective than an extra receiver running a route because defenders can lose track of the leaking tight end. But you get the idea.
Adaptations – or Changes – on the Defense
With Marlon Humphrey back at full strength, Mike Macdonald ran more double press coverage last week than I’d seen all season. This is one of the things to like about Macdonald. He is not one dimensional in his thinking.
Both Humphrey and Brandon Stephens are fully capable press corners, particularly with help over the top from the safeties. Both of them played very well against the Jaguars.
This addition to the defensive repertoire is essential if the Ravens want to win against San Francisco, Miami, and the other top passing attacks. Simply allowing underneath catches against zone coverages is much more dangerous against the top catch-and-run receivers that these teams bring. It forces Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen to make tackle after tackle.
The lurking danger in bringing a lot of press coverages is the dependence on the Cover-2 safeties. Over the last several weeks I’ve highlighted my concerns with Geno Stone’s limitations on the back end. Never were his flaws on greater display than on the Jaguars big touchdown pass against the Ravens last week.
On that play the Ravens weren’t in cover two, with Stone playing deep center field alone. At the snap Trevor Lawrence quickly used his eyes to the right side of the field. Stone was peeking into the backfield and bit on Lawrence’s eyes as he tilted his coverage to the right. As Lawrence turned towards the left side, Stone was slow to shift his hips. Meanwhile, Arthur Maulet passed off his slot receiver (a running back) to the back end, but Stone couldn’t get there fast enough to help. Now, there’s no telling from the tape alone whether Maulet made a mental mistake passing off the receiver. It didn’t appear that way to me, though I could be wrong. But the point is this. Stone was caught peering into the backfield for just an instant, and was too slow to recover. It was the first bomb all year (I believe) that the Ravens have surrendered for a score.
I don’t trust Stone on the back end. But that’s where he’s going to be. And if one of the press coverages fails, the Ravens will be counting on Stone to protect against the failure.
Ravens Thoughts – Kyle Hamilton: Slot Corner or Cover-2 Safety
The Jaguars game again brought a plethora of examples of Hamilton’s strength (playing at the line) and his weakness (playing on the back end). This man must play up near the line, and that’s it. Hamilton broke up several screen/flare plays with an uncanny ability to get his long arms underneath attempting blockers and tackle the receiver. Though his blitz effectiveness has somewhat diminished as teams know it is coming, he remains very disruptive in that role.
His pass coverages down the field are being attacked. Lawrence caught Hamilton (like Stone) looking in the backfield on one play, leading to a good gain. Stationed on the back end on the Jags last threatening drive, Hamilton slightly froze twice, getting beat on Ridley’s almost touchdown. Three plays later we witnessed it again on a pass that should’ve been six.
When Hamilton went to the back end, the Ravens experimented a bit at slot corner. We actually saw the invisible Jalyn Armour-Davis on the slot, beaten badly once, then holding his own before a concussion forced his exit. Arthur Maulet continued his inconsistent play in the slot when called upon. Will we see Pepe Williams get a shot this week? When Marcus Williams is out, the Ravens defense has been more vulnerable, as Hamilton is forced into his less desirable back end role with the result that the slot cornerback – so far – has not been fully dependable.
Ravens Thoughts – Attacking the 49ers
San Francisco hasn’t been at full strength recently on the defensive front. Javon Hargrave might be back on Monday. If so, Tyler Linderbaum will have to bring his A game on the interior.
The 49ers like to play a lot of “Wide-9” defensive fronts, where their ends in their 4-3 scheme line up extra-wide outside of the offensive tackles. The big plus in this front is allowing those ends to explode around tackles to get to the quarterback, and both Joey Bosa and Chase Young can exploit these sets. Given Ronnie Stanley’s poor play, we should expect at least a wide-9 set on his side quite a bit, and probably against Moses too.
The Ravens should attack inside of these wide gaps, if they can. Misdirection becomes essential. And the run-pass option should be more prevalent when you have Lamar Jackson against this structure. Though I was only able to watch a portion of the 49ers effort against Arizona, wide gaps in the 49ers line structure regularly appeared. The Cardinals successfully attacked it to the inside, and after hitting that first hole, with cuts back to the outside. Kyler Murray also used a few RPO’s to great effect last week.
If Stanley and Moses struggle badly, we’ll likely see Jackson in full-time scramble mode. As Rashod Bateman did last week, receivers will have to keep working and offer targets for Lamar.
One counter to the pressure situation is running quick-release routes. Isaiah Likely should also be used, as he has been, in the flat and in the seam. I didn’t see any plays against the Jags where Likely went in motion from an in-line set. Bring it back this week, as it helps identify coverage mis-matches and defensive allotments. As well as potentially isolating Likely.
Defending Brock Purdy and His Great Skill Position Mates
Against Arizona, Purdy was rarely pressured. I watched the first half of the game and did not see Arizona blitz at all. On some occasions, they only rushed three. Purdy surgically sliced through Arizona’s pass defense, finding open receivers with ease and consistently delivering the ball with touch and outstanding accuracy. The Cardinals corners aren’t very good, and there were numerous breakdowns in the secondary. As with any NFL quarterback, you must get pressure.
The last two weeks the Ravens front four has not been as effective pressuring the quarterback without help. Mike Macdonald has to find a way to dial up some pressure this week against Purdy. If not, he’ll kill you.
At the same time it’s obvious that the 49ers have the very best group of yards-after-catch receivers in the league. You simply can’t let Debo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle run free off of the line of scrimmage. I expect a lot of press coverage this week from Stephens and Humphrey as they try to throw off the 49ers timing and defeat Purdy. Arizona rarely tried it. I’d rather hit Debo at the of scrimmage and then ride him as hard as I can, than tackle him in the open field after he’s caught the ball.
Purdy is a super talent. He is not easily flustered. As with Tom Brady, you have to find a way to make him release the ball before he wants to. And you have to get him off of his spot to disrupt his accuracy.
Stopping Christian McCaffrey is another matter. You have to pick your poison with the 49ers offense. Given the big-play nature of the 49ers passing attack, I don’t expect Mike Macdonald to devote extra resources to stopping the run. I do expect a lot of six men in the box, and take your chances.
Random Ravens Thoughts
Now, for a few random thoughts from the couch before Santa comes and takes the milk.
Pass Rush
Kyle Van Noy’s effectiveness as a pass rusher has diminished. I continue to maintain that Odafe Oweh needs to play more. Oweh is still making an impact in pass rush and with effort, and the Ravens need his comparatively fresh legs on the field.
Oweh Over the Center
I spotted Oweh lining up over the center on several pass rush attempts last week. He was very effective as a disrupter, and I hope to see more of it. Oweh has a good combination of quickness and power to challenge centers and guards. Putting him on the inside with Clowney and Van Noy on the edge is an intriguing concept.
Travis Jones
Travis Jones gets better every week. He’s been more effective than Michael Pierce recently. The Ravens haven’t paired the two of them other than at the goal line to any real extent. Might they against the 49ers?
Justin Madubuike
We’ll get to this in the off-season, but Madubuike is making himself a ton of money. I expect the Ravens will put the non-exclusive franchise tag on Madubuike (as they did with Lamar). They can’t develop Madubuike into what he is becoming, and then let him walk.
