No need to spend much more time on Zay Flowers. He was the best receiver in the draft, pure and simple. Lamar will have zero excuses this year. He’s surrounded by high end skill position players everywhere. The wide receiver trio of Beckham, Bateman, and Flowers is plenty good enough. Mark Andrews and his fellow tight ends are elite. The running back trio is excellent. Now we will see what Todd Monken can do. There should be big enough offensive philosophy changes coming. Now let’s take a look at days two and three.
A Debate With Eric DeCosta
I was foolish enough to believe, for two years running now, that the Ravens would not draft a player for a position where they did not have a need. Last year, it was Kyle Hamilton. This year, it is Trenton Simpson. It was my fault failing to review inside linebackers this season under this false assumption.
Best Player versus Best Player in Position of Need
This rekindles an age-old simple debate written about previously. Should a general manager draft the best player available, no matter what the need? Or should he draft the best player available within the positions of need? I visualize this debate on a sliding scale. The higher the draft round, one could say, the greater the emphasis on “position of need.” Concomitantly, the lower the round, the greater the emphasis on “pure best player.” Eric DeCosta does not take this view. For him, there is no sliding scale. It’s pure best player any position, needs be damned.
I believe this thinking is flawed. Selections in the early rounds should not be players who will redshirt for a year (except for injured “star” prospects, like David Ojabo in 2022). Almost every team enters the draft with two or three positions of serious need. Generally said, the prospects of greatest renown are selected in those early rounds.
When you draft a player in a position where there is zero need – and that’s the case for the 2023 Ravens at inside linebacker provided Patrick Queen is not now traded – the draftee does not play. Trenton Simpson does not figure to see the field on defensive snaps (absent injuries) beyond a few plays here and there. We will see him on special teams, but that’s it. He’ll become a starter in 2024 when Queen is gone.
I do not believe in spending high draft capital on players who will not immediately contribute. If you are trying to maximize your team’s ability to win a championship this year, what’s the point? There will likely be a hole in the inside linebacker position in 2024. Draft that player in that season. Simpson’s selection does not – I repeat, does not – help the Ravens at all in 2023. I’m not drafting players in rounds one through three to essentially send them to the minors. It makes no sense.
Days Two and Three: More Draft Surprises
There were several more surprises in the Ravens draft selections. Here are a couple.
Tavius Robinson
I was equally disappointed in the selection of Tavius Robinson. He’s tall (6’6). He did not test all that well athletically (though he ran a very good 4.66 forty); there’s not much explosion there. He’s still a developmental project at age 24. Robinson does not have an elite trait.
Now the projection for Robinson is that he will continue to develop as a pass rusher, but he plays too high right now, lacks twitch, and is unable to generate enough power on a consistent basis. There are flashes of more bend, so that can improve. He knows how to strip the ball from the quarterback. Robinson is very intelligent and wanting to learn from his coaches. With more power, he could rush from the inside on third down, a la Pernell McPhee. And with more power he will better hold the edge in the run game, where he currently can struggle.
Robinson is like Simpson in that he doesn’t figure to see the defensive field all that much in 2023. That’s a bit more acceptable in the fourth round than in the third.
Now I’ll admit this. The 2023 draft was weak. Perhaps the Ravens just didn’t see much else of value at pick 124 where they selected Robinson. I would have been very tempted there to select cornerback Darius Rush, who lasted until pick 138. He’s a better prospect than Kyu Blu Kelly who the Ravens selected at pick 157. Cornerback, to me, was a much bigger position of need than edge linebacker. I’m not claiming that I’m right on Robinson versus Rush. I’m only pointing out that Robinson likely has little chance to contribute in 2023 (again, barring injury) whereas Rush would’ve competed immediately to see the field.
Andrew Vorhees
Vorhees was a player who I reviewed but did not write-up because of his injury. I like the player quite a bit. By the time he sees the field for the Ravens in 2024 he will be 25 years old. Nevertheless, had he been healthy I had Vorhees ranked between the third and fourth rounds. Selecting him with a 2024 sixth round pick is real value. This was a keen move by DeCosta.
I have no issue with redshirting a seventh-round selection. Most of them wind up on the practice squad anyway. This is how you make your hay.
Kyu Blu Kelly
To me, Kelly is an ordinary prospect without the recovery speed you generally need to be an effective corner in the NFL. He ran only a 4.52 forty. By contrast, Jalyn Armour-Davis (remember him?), who will get his chances in training camp, ran a 4.39. Here was my write-up on Kelly:
“Kelly is not the athlete like the top corners in this draft. He ran a slow 4.52 forty and had a mediocre vertical jump (though an excellent broad jump), and it showed in games as he succumbed to false moves. He is not all that physical of a corner and had trouble shedding blocks. Nor is he much of a ballhawk, recording only three interceptions over 35 starts in his career. His greatest strength is his footwork, especially his quickness, which allows him both to mirror and play in space well, suggesting his best usage is in zone coverages. What Kelly doesn’t offer is what the Ravens need – the speed to turn and run. He’s not the best at switching from a backpedal to taking off down the field. And I don’t see him as the type of nickel that the Ravens would want; someone who can blitz and tackle.”
I’ll stick by it.
Draft Grade?
Draft grading immediately after the draft is a worthless exercise. I’m still not ready to grade last year’s draft. It takes at least two years to have a real sense of the quality of a draft crop. Let’s wait a bit here. But I’ll have a piece sometime soon on Mr. DeCosta’s success/failure over his first three drafts. I previously did one on his first draft, which you can find here.
I’ll be back with a few NFL free agent thoughts shortly.
