This post is my initial take on potential wide receiver draft prospects from the Ravens perspective. This list may be augmented if time permits. The previous position analysis for cornerbacks can be found here.
UPDATE: April 24, 2023 – A.T. Perry: I was able to do a deeper dive on A.T. Perry, who I previously downplayed. But at the Shrine Bowl practices he was much more dominant than I expected. Granted, he wasn’t going against the top level cornerbacks that were present at the Senior Bowl. But Perry’s route running was smooth and seamless, and he demonstrated excellent hands and ball skills. I’m upgrading him to a legitimate Round 4 targetable prospect.
UPDATE: April 20, 2023 – Michael Wilson: First, I had a chance to further study Michael Wilson’s tape from the Senior Bowl practices and was very impressed. He showed outstanding footwork and route understanding with quick feet and some burst after the catch. He’s had injury problems as noted. But I upgrade him.
Tank Dell: Second, the Tank Dell tape from the Senior Bowl was just sensational. He was uncoverable. Yes he’s small, etc. But you just can’t ignore how easily he creates separation. I’ve upgraded him too.
The Wide Receiver Issue
The Ravens have addressed their gaping wide receiver need in free agency. At this point, Odell Beckham and Rashod Bateman figure to be their two starting outside receivers, with Devin Duvernay in the slot. Because of the Beckham signing, the Ravens have the luxury of not having to reach in the first round for a receiver who does not offer number one ability. I’ll address which receivers could qualify as number ones in my Ravens Big Board, which will be up right before the draft.
Nevertheless, wide receiver is still a need, though not the top priority that it was before the Beckham signing. Many of the top wide receiver prospects in this years draft are best in the slot. Are the Ravens willing to jettison the notion of having Devin Duvernay in the slot full-time in favor of a new draftee? What is Todd Monken’s view of Duvernay? What the Ravens do, and don’t do, in the draft at the receiver position should answer those questions.
And the De’Andre Hopkins scenario is still a possibility in my mind, depending on whether the Ravens can ink Lamar Jackson long term in light of the Jalen Hurts contract. We will see.
The Wide Receiver Prospects
So let’s take a look at the wide receiver prospects, focusing on how the Ravens should view these players. This is not a special group by any means, and overall probably the weakest group in years from the perspective of elite talent.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
He is 6’ 196 lbs. from Ohio State. Smith-Njigba played only three games this past season due to a hamstring injury. He brings mediocre speed (ran a 4.52 forty). He also played primarily in the slot over the last two seasons. Smith-Njigba has a very high football IQ and offers extremely good hands. This guy has tremendous short area agility and burst. His 3-cone time was in the 98th percentile and his 20-yard shuttle was in the 99th percentile. These are fantastic numbers.
Smith-Njigba is very elusive, a great route runner and fluid, and has excellent ball skills. Because of his agility he can free himself easily and has strong hands to win the contested catch. He will catch the ball in stride and can juke defensive backs in YAC situations. His weakness is that he’s not the type of guy to run away from you.
We can’t forget that Smith-Njigba played next to Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson at Ohio State.. I see him as the crafty type of wide receiver who can drive defenses nuts because he’ll catch everything and can dominate in short spaces. But he’s built to play the slot in the NFL. He’ll undoubtedly go in the first round, but this is not the second coming of Ja’Marr Chase. For me, a wide receiver without the explosive second gear and ability to play on the outside is not one the Ravens should be drafting, in 2023, in the first round. For that reason, I think he will be over-drafted. Round 1.
Jordan Addison
Addison stands at just 5’11 and a mere 173 lbs. from USC. He ran a 4.49 forty, which is mediocre for a guy with his diminutive size. He is an excellent route runner (he has a complete route tree), both on the inside and outside. Addison brings outstanding footwork and gets easily in and out of transitions. Given his size, it’s no surprise that Addison lacks physicality, and corners that get their hands on him can re-route him. As well, he certainly won’t be much of a blocker at the next level. It would serve him well to add a bit of bulk so he can gain better leverage.
He caught 59 balls last year at USC, but 23 of them were screens. Over his career he played more often in the slot than on the outside. Like Smith-Njigba, his NFL future is as a slot receiver where he can use his short area quickness and outstanding footwork to best effect. In a year where there are few if any dominant number one receivers in the draft, Addison will get drafted higher than he should. I grade him as a round 2 talent. But he’ll likely go higher. Round 2.
Kayshon Boutte
Boutte is 6’ 205 lbs. from LSU is barely 20 year old. He brings very average speed (a 4.50 forty). The balance of his testing was poor. He’s a player coming off of two right ankle surgeries. For me, that’s enough of a red flag to keep him off of my draft board. Boutte is one of the tougher calls in the wide receiver group. He is very inconsistent, with too many drops (particularly on jump balls) and too many shoddy routes. He shows good route instincts and can create separation.
Boutte will use his body to shield defenders and is very tough with the ball in his hands after the catch. He’ll run through tackles and can turn short passes into big plays. Yet, he will tip his routes too often and shies away from the middle of the field. At this point, I think Boutte is an immature football player. He needs to be more focused and dedicated to his craft. Consistency is lacking. To draft him, you have to believe you can both coach him up and grow him. Round 3.
Quentin Johnston
Johnston is a very big man, at 6’4 and 215 lbs. out of TCU. He ran a 4.51 forty on his pro day. For all of his great size, Johnston too often plays more with finesse than with power.
So what does Johnston bring to the table? That great combination of size and good enough speed for that size, along with very good foot quickness that you just can’t teach. And, he has a gigantic wingspan. Johnston’s vertical jump and broad jump testing were outstanding. He has tons of natural ability and is a physical specimen. Is he D.K. Metcalfe all over again? Well, he’s not quite as fast, but . . .
Like Metcalfe in college there were lots of focus drops (he had over a 10% drop rate, which is way too high). Johnston lets the ball get into his body way too often, and for someone with is great size he didn’t win 50% of contested balls (way too low). He’s plenty enough explosive which, along with his physical ability, should regularly challenge top corners. He’s also quick out of his breaks, allowing him to come back to the ball easily. And he will get you yards after the catch. Johnston is a natural high-pointer. He needs some work finishing contested catches, and he has big-time upside.
Now Johnston is nowhere near the compete route runner that is Jordan Addison. He needs more work developing his route tree. Is he ready to immediately be a dominating receiver? Probably not yet, but he has almost everything you look for – except for those hands which, to me, are a real turn off. Round 1.
Zay Flowers
Flowers is 5’10 and just 172 lbs. from Boston College. He ran a strong 4.42 forty, though that’s not exceptional for his size. Flowers has extraordinarily short arms to go with his diminutive height. But he brings that great elusiveness that I simply love in wide receivers. It’s real hard to get your hands on him, especially if he doesn’t want you to. This is a dynamic player. Yet, for all of his great elusiveness and explosiveness, his route running needs work and he hasn’t developed the in-play nuances and finesse to exploit defenders.
Flowers offers more downfield than his size limitations might imply. He is a dynamic run after the catch guy and changes direction effortlessly. He’s great in the open field. Flowers is a very tough competitor. And he’s been very durable (never missed a game). Obviously, Flowers has a very small catch radius, which is the big trade-off here. And his hands haven’t been as good as one would want (24 dropped balls in his career – way too many focus drops). He is not Tyreek Hill, as he lacks that world-class top end speed.
Can you play Flowers on the outside? I think his best role is in the slot. I just don’t see him as a true number one receiver given that he lacks the long speed necessary to put him there. But he would be an excellent elusive receiver, the type of skillset that I think is essential to add to the Ravens, especially if Lamar Jackson is the quarterback. In this year’s draft he’s a round one selection, but I think he’s likely a round 2 talent. Round 1-2.
Jalin Hyatt
Hyatt brings a 6’ 176 lbs. frame from Tennessee. The stretched-out Hyatt ran a strong 4.40 forty and has outstanding explosiveness as illustrated by his vertical jump and broad jump (both 90%+ percentiles). With speed (and a great second gear) and explosion, what Hyatt lacks is polished route running. Tennessee just didn’t task him with running much other than verticals, so there’s a lot of projection to Hyatt’s NFL route tree. But he’s the type of guy who can take it to the house on crossers and vertical routes.
Hyatt’s body lacks the necessary bulk to defeat press coverage in the NFL. He got stacked too often in college in those situations. For all of his explosiveness, he’s more straight line than elusive after the catch. And he takes too long to slow down and sink those hips, meaning he’s not going to dominate on come-back routes or more generally in getting out of his breaks. He has good, natural hands (only eight drops in his career on 108 catches). Hyatt was the top deep threat in college last year.
Like many of the other so-called top receivers in this draft, Hyatt is not the complete package, and there is a bunch of projection to his NFL ceiling. So many of his routes in Tennessee were just go routes. To me, he’s not a first round talent at this point. From the Ravens perspective, Hyatt is the type of receiver who will force safeties on his side of the field away from the line of scrimmage. You just have to account for the home run ability. In that sense, he is a piece the Ravens are missing. But seeing him as a number one receiver is a stretch at this point. Round 2.
Josh Downs
Downs is 5’9 171 lbs. from North Carolina. He ran a 4.48 forty (just average, and below average for his size). Downs is a slot-only prospect in the NFL. The challenge for Downs in the slot is that he has trouble when defenders get their hands on him. If he can get a release, he becomes an excellent separator underneath. Downs brings very good hips and change of direction skills. He has very good hands (14 career drops on 202 catches, but only three on 116 targets last year).
Downs is very agile and has excellent feet. He can explode in an instant. He’s a good, twitchy route runner who knows how to find those blind spots and will work himself open in a fire drill. This is a critical skill for a receiver in a Lamar Jackson offense. He has a very limited catch radius, given his short stature and small wingspan. Yet, he was very successful on contested catches.
For all of his talents, Downs didn’t force as many missed tackles as one might expect. He’s not going to give you much as a run blocker and would be a liability in that role in the slot. Downs would be a solid addition if he lasted until the Ravens second pick in the third round. More realistically, he just doesn’t figure to be there. Round 2-3.
Tyler Scott
Scott is 5’10, 177 lbs. from Cincinnati who ran a 4.44 forty, but on his pro day ran a much faster 4.37. His vertical jump and broad jump tests were excellent. The first issue for Scott is that he sizes as a slot receiver, yet has the linear skills of an outside receiver. He would not be the threat in the slot that some of the more elusive prospects are this year. Yet, he has home run capabilities, with the speed to threaten both vertically and horizontally. He has the natural ability to change gears easily, suggesting he should be a real threat on dig routes and cutters. Scott brings very good footwork.
Scott lacks natural play strength and I have questions regarding his ability to handle the physicality of NFL press defenders. His wingspan is below average and contested balls are not his specialty. He has very small hands. In addition, his hands have been very mediocre (ten drops on 87 career catches). Nor is blocking a forte. Scott needs more polish to his route tree to reach his potential.
Scott is not going to be a number one wide receiver in the NFL. But he has the natural gifts that, with polish, could make him a dynamic weapon. Round 3.
Cedric Tillman
Tillman is 6’3, 213 lbs. from Tennessee. He has the size that many of the other top prospects lack. Although a ran a relatively pedestrian 4.54 forty, his other testing numbers were outstanding. He has very big hands and good wingspan. Tillman has a very limited route tree, and was never a dominant player at Tennessee. His strength as a receiver is his physicality and his ball skills. If your quarterback wants to throw jump balls, Tillman is your man. And he will catch the ball (only five drops on 109 career catches). His hips aren’t particularly fluid, and he’s nothing special on hitches and digs. Short-area quickness just isn’t his strength.
What Tillman brings is play strength and ball skills. He’s not going to run away from you, but he will use his body to create openings and should be successful across the middle. There’s still work to do here. Round 2-3.
Marvin Mims Jr.
Mims is 5’11, 183 lbs. from Oklahoma. Mims tested as one of the faster runners in the class (ran a 4.38 forty). His other testing was excellent (top tier vertical jump and broad jump, and a decent 3-cone). He’s barely 21 years old. Mims is a smooth strider and has the burst to blow by corners without losing stride as he tracks the ball. He is versatile and can play both outside and inside. Mims is by no means physical. He is the opposite of Cedric Tillman in that he lacks play strength and is mediocre on the contested catch. He is not as elusive as you might want.
Mims’ route tree must expand. Physical corners will likely give him trouble. Although he’s probably better suited on the inside, he doesn’t have the perfect skillset to be there. He’s explosive down the field, but at this point doesn’t offer enough versatility to project him as more than that. Round 3-4.
Xavier Hutchinson
Hutchinson brings good size at 6’2 203 lbs. from Iowa State. But he is slow (ran a 4.53 forty) and otherwise tested very poorly. He’s not as athletic as the top prospects this year. Hutchinson does not possess any single trait that sticks out. Notwithstanding his size, he doesn’t regularly use it to advantage. He’s neither shifty nor explosive. He has good hands (13 drops on 254 career catches) and is also very good at tracking the ball. Hutchinson will have challenges separating in the NFL. He is not a player I’d seek out. Round 5.
Jayden Reed
Reed is 6’ 185 lbs. from Michigan State. Although he ran a good 4.45, his other physical testing was poor, and certainly showed nothing to make one believe he can be an explosive player in the NFL. One wonders how much higher his NFL ceiling can be. He performed well at the Senior Bowl practices getting easy separation with his quickness and speed, and the defensive backs named him his teams practice player of the week.
Reed has shown well on contested catches and handling contact. He will block the edge. His hands are a bit of a concern (19 drops on 203 career catches). Reed is a good route runner and easily uses leverage to his advantage. But Reed has had issues separating when corners get their hands on him. There’s nothing about Reed that screams “draft me.” Round 4-5.
Rayshee Rice
Rice is 6’1 and 204 lbs. from SMU. Rice brings average speed (4.51 forty) and outstanding vertical jump and broad jump testing. He’s an explosive leaper. Rice saw a tremendous amount of activity at SMU, being targeted over 300 times in his three year career. He struggles with press coverages, as he has difficulty getting off of jams. He won’t run by too many people on go routes. Rice will also take plays off on occasion when the ball is not coming his way. He brings great body control and the ability to adjust to the ball in the air. Rice has good ability after the catch. He will hurt you with the ability to work underneath and has good footwork to plant and cut (though he is not sudden). Rice is also a solid blocker.
At the Senior Bowl practices, Route showcased excellent route running but, as expected, did not blow by people over the top.
Rice had a few too many drops in his career (21), many of which were focus drops as he has a propensity for making the tough catch. Hence, consistency is an issue for Rice. Viewed as immature prior to 2022, he made strides last year but this remains a question mark. You can run Rice inside or outside. On balance, I like what Rice can bring, but he’s enigmatic, and I don’t like taking players who lack natural focus and determination. His interview would be key to his evaluation. If satisfied, I like what this player can bring. Round 3.
Jonathan Mingo
Mingo brings a large 6’2, 220 lbs. frame from Mississippi. And he tested fabulously, with an incredible bench press to go along with outstanding vertical jump and broad jump. He also ran an excellent 4.46 forth for such a big man. Mingo brings giant and strong hands along in his weapon bag.
Mingo did not bloom at all until his senior season. He’s a truck with the ball in his hands, recording the sixth most receiving yards in the country after contact. He’s also going to be a very hard dude to press, as should just run through corners. However, this will only come over time as he saw little press at Ole Miss and struggled a bit in this regard at the Senior Bowl.
Mingo also shows the ability to quickly get to top speed. Mingo should bring a lot to the table, but the one thing he isn’t – to no surprise – is twitchy. He can work the inside as well as outside. As his jumping ability suggests, he has explosive suddenness, and although he won a bunch of contested balls, he didn’t use his body as well as you’d expect. He’s also an improving route runner. Mingo suffered a stress fracture in his left foot in 2021, but played all 13 games last year.
Mingo should be a real chess piece in an offense where quick hitters, screens, and similar plays are highlighted. He’s a willing blocker who should improve. At the Senior Bowl he showcased some dominance in the red zone, getting quick releases and highlighting a nice use of leverage. And he used his hands very well.
Whether he’s a fit for the Ravens is difficult to say with a new offensive system coming. Mingo is well suited as a slot receiver where he could dominate physically and to the inside. You can also envision him on the outside where he can use his body to control the area between himself and the quarterback. His blocking ability would play well with the Ravens. I like the abilities that Mingo brings, and his upside. Round 3.
Nathaniel Tank Dell
Nathaniel Dell is a mere 5’8 and 165 lbs. from Houston, with short arms and exceedingly small hands. For his size, he ran a disappointing 4.49 forty, though it was combined with an excellent 1.49 10-yard split (third fastest in the class). Dell is extraordinarily quick. Some have called him a “joystick.” Combined with that 10-yard burst, he should be a very difficult cover. He has what you can’t teach: an ability to stop-and-start on in instant. But he will not run away from you all the way down the field.
Dell is outstanding at tracking the ball. He can stop on a dime. And he has such outstanding foot quickness that he is almost impossible to cover with one man if you can’t knock him off the blocks. That will be his issue in the NFL; can he handle the jams? The solution for a lot of that is to put him in motion as often as possible. Dell is a very polished route runner, ready to go. Now he’s by no means Tyreek Hill; he lacks Hill’s bulk and fantastic long-end speed. But he can cause real problems for a defense. His lack of bulk will create durability concerns. And he had too many focus drops. What Dell brings is an electric, elusive big-play maker. Round 2-3.
A.T. Perry
Perry is a tall 6’4, but only 198 lbs. to go with it from Wake Forest. He has an exceptionally long wingspan creating an outstanding catching radius. Perry ran a very good 4.47 for someone his size. He needs to add some bulk to his frame as he lacks great play strength. NFL corners will most assuredly test him in that regard.
Perry knows how to utilize his body to great advantage, especially down the field. However, he doesn’t attack the ball up top as well as you’d like. He’s not particularly gifted after the catch. Though he’s a smooth strider and a reasonably well polished route runner, he hasn’t been the type of consistent receiver who will dominate. I see Perry as a mixed bag, and just don’t see him as offering anything special. He’s a pass for me. Round 4.
Trey Palmer
Palmer is 6’ 192 lbs. from Nebraska. He ran an outstanding 4.33 forty (tops at the combine). This is elite top speed. But let’s start with what is a killer for me. Palmer’s drop rate is simply terrible. He dropped 13.8% of balls in his career including ten last year. He’s poor on the contested catch. He couldn’t break through at LSU before having a strong season at Nebraska last year. Palmer is not a great route runner. At this point he’s the go-route runner who can run back kicks. Think Yamon Figurs. There’s more to Palmer than to Figurs, of course. Palmer tracks the ball well and adjusts to the ball to good effect. He produced mostly in the slot last year, and it’s unclear how he will handle physical corners on the outside.
Palmer’s top-end speed notwithstanding, I’m just not excited about the balance of his game. Pass. Round 5.
Michael Wilson
Wilson is 6’2 and 213 lbs. from Stanford. A very good athlete, he lacks any kind of top-end speed (ran an awful 4.58 forty). But his short area speed was very good (a 1.5 second 10-yard split) which should allow him to escape the line of scrimmage. He has a mediocre wingspan which will limit his catch radius.
There are giant injury red flags surrounding Wilson, as he played a total of only ten games over the past two years. Wilson is a strong route runner and works inside routes very well. He is polished and ready to go from that perspective. He has been hobbled by silly concentration drops. Wilson brings a high football IQ, reading routes well and processing in-flight. He’s a very willing blocker and a team captain. Wilson had an excellent week at the Senior Bowl. At Stanford, he was frequently used in screens, crossers and quick outs, which should be a staple of what he brings in the NFL. He will be a guy who can move the chains, but you won’t have to worry about putting a safety over the top of him.
Wilson the player offers a nice package of skills. But Wilson the player is also too injury prone for me. And that’s been a real problem for the Ravens historically in making their wide receiver judgments. As my April 20 update notes, I’ve upgraded my view of Wilson and put him on my Ravens board. Round 3.
Parker Washington
Washington is 5’10 and 204 lbs. from Penn State. He brings the shortest arms at 29 inches that you will ever see. He did not work out at the combine or otherwise offer a pro day so there’s no athletic testing on him. A mere 21 years old, Parker only started 24 games in his career, missing three games last year with an ankle injury. Washington brings excellent play strength and will not shy away from contact. He will adjust his body to the ball, and brings the type of crisp footwork that you look for.
Washington will find the soft spot in the zone and stay there. He easily transitions. But he’s not the elusive guy that will create separation with his quickness. He’s very tough after the catch as you would expect from his tight and compact body. Washington averaged an outstanding 6.3 in YAC. He brings a very competitive spirit, and can run back punts for you too. Washington has not proven to be a home run hitter. Penn State played him mostly in the slot, so there are real unknowns for Washington on the outside. He has been a master of making the very difficult catch. But in all, he is very much untested as a downfield, outside receiver, and as a slot receiver candidate I don’t think he offers any truly elite traits. Round 5.
Andres Iosivas
Iosivas is 6’3 and 205 lbs. out of Princeton. This guy tested as probably the best athlete at the combine as everything was off the charts. He ran a 4.43 forty (though his Senior Bowl time was only 12th fastest), and his 20-yard shuttle, his bench press, his 3-cone, the vertical jump and the broad jump were all excellent. His hand size was quite small, however.
Iosivas is the classic great athlete who needs loads of development, even at age 23. And he has no idea how to get off the line of scrimmage, as corners who put their hands on him just lock him up. This guy is by no means a natural route runner, and his short area quickness is just average. His play strength is below average.
Iosivas is a project, pure and simple. I’m not interested in the Ravens taking on one of these guys, not with Eric DeCosta’s poor record of drafting wide receivers, and the Ravens poor record of developing wide receivers. Pass. Round 6.
Dontayvion Wicks
Wicks is 6’1 206 lbs. from Virginia. At the Senior Bowl Wicks highlighted outstanding short-area quickness and an easy ability to get releases and separate from corners. He was named a wide receiver practice player of the week. He showcased excellent footwork and an ability to change direction on a dime. His body control was impressive. But his hands remain a major drawback – they are inconsistent; easy catch drops, hard catch receptions. And I still think his hips are not loose enough and even when he won at the Senior Bowl practices it wasn’t due to his elusiveness.
There are things to like about Wicks. But again, for me, it all starts with the hands, and Wicks has had a bunch of focus drops in his career. It all depends on where you draft him. Round 5.
Charlie Jones
Jones is a 24 year old late bloomer, at 5’11, 175 lbs. from Purdue. He is a decent athlete who ran a 4.43 forty. He brings outstanding ball skills and body control, along with solid route running ability. Jones also has excellent hands; you throw it, he’ll catch it. But he has a small frame and must play in the slot in the NFL. Nor is he the twitchy or elusive type of slot man who can bring you a lot of YAC. I see Jones as a chain-mover who has enough instant get off to get open and make the catch. But he has no special trait and I’m not sure he’d bring all that much to the Ravens receiver room. Pass. Round 5.
Rakim Jarrett
Jarrett is 5’11 and 192 lbs. from Maryland. Jarrett is an excellent athlete who has not yet put it all together on the field. He ran a 4.44 forty and ranked out as the 10th best wide receiver at the Combine. He has the type of instant acceleration that you look for, and is the type of receiver you hit quickly and let him go with the ball. Jarrett is a very hard working player who plays all out. Many of his routes were of the quick hit variety, and he needs a lot more work developing a route tree and learning how to set up defenders.
To date, Jarrett is too dependent on his speed. He needs to become a much better technician. He has shown just average hands. Jarrett is a project at this point, with plenty of upside but likely will not see the field in his first year. Round 6.
Puka Nacua
Nacua is 6’1 and 201 lbs. from BYU who ran a very slow 4.56 forty. He’s a tough player who plays that way but doesn’t bring the type of burst that will scare defenders. He’s definitely not twitchy. Nacua has missed a bunch of games in his career with a variety of injuries, a red flag of course. He even pulled out of the Senior Bowl after suffering a concussion. Nacua does have some good qualities. He brings very good body control and is very focused and determined. He will win you the jump ball. Nacua can use his body to great effect on the inside and on short routes. But the injury red flag is waving, and for that reason alone I’d avoid him. Round 6.
