This is not a pollyannish pie-in-the-sky prediction that the Ravens can win their playoff matchup without Lamar Jackson. The odds of their offense putting up three touchdowns – without some short fields – are very low. My hope comes from watching the tape of last week’s Bengals matchup, and the extraordinary play of Roquan Smith. The Ravens can beat the Bengals. Let me explain.
For weeks I’ve been pining that Mike Macdonald has got it all wrong. That the Ravens must play press man coverage against the Bengals terrific trio of wideouts plus Hayden Hurst. Stop them from getting free releases from the line of scrimmage. Re-route them, shove them around. Because those zone packages just offer too many easy pitch-and-catch throws allowing the Bengals to easily matriculate down the field. But I’ve had it all wrong.
The Amazing Roquan Smith – He is Superman
What screams off of last week’s tape is how the Ravens were able to largely shut down the passing attack, ex-the short fields that the offense gifted the Bengals. Now I don’t want to get too carried away, because let’s face it. Ja’Marr Chase dropped one perfectly thrown touchdown pass (though he was blanketed on the play), so it could have been worse. But let me shove that play to the side for the moment.
What I saw was Roquan Smith’s magnifico play in the zone defense calls. No middle linebacker in the league could more brilliantly read, rotate, re-route, and switch directions and receivers in the zone packages better than Smith. Play after play he started on the inside receiver on trips packages to his strong side of the field. And as the Bengals sophisticated route patterns (not exactly the Greg Roman playbook) adroitly moved outside receivers to the inside and into Smith’s area of responsibility, Smith immediately switched his coverage to the proper receiver, at the proper angle, and at full speed. It was simply extraordinary, and is why the Ravens were absolutely right to lock him up for the long term. Smith really can do it all as an inside linebacker in today’s NFL.
And on top of that, Smith made anyone pay who crossed into his area with the ball in his hands. He strikes fear into the hearts of anyone in the middle of the field. This is the Ray Lewis effect all over again, and it’s a joy to watch. That dollar sign on Smith’s jersey stands for Superman!
Patrick Queen Should Pay Smith Some of that Signing Bonus Money
Fans have largely realized that Smith’s presence has benefitted Patrick Queen. And nowhere was this more obvious on the tape than on several plays of trip formations to the strong side with one receiver and a running back to Queen’s weakside. In these zone packages, to Queen’s side of the field Queen was in his weakside pre-snap positioning with a corner to the outside and a safety over the top; three men over two. Thus, the overload was away from Queen, greatly simplifying Queen’s read responsibilities and allowing him to flow more freely and instinctively. It leaps out off of the tape. When Queen is free in this fashion, he is much more aggressive and effective. On the play or two when the Bengals forced Queen into the Smith-like responsibilities, Queen struggled as he always has, his reads being slower than Smith’s causing his reaction to lag and allowing easy completions.
It’s so clear to me now watching that tape. The Ravens defense has a chance to win this game and beat the Bengals if Smith brings his A game in these zone packages. And don’t assign blitz responsibilities to Smith this week. Let Queen do that. Smith must stay on the backend.
The Cornerbacks
Now of course there’s more to all of this than just Smith. There’s the cornerback situation too. Marcus Peters will be back for this game. Frankly, I doubt that Peters can bring as much into this contest as Daryl Worley shockingly brought last week. Worley was all over the field, tackled with decisiveness, force, and efficiency, and offered very good coverage on the occasions when Macdonald left him on an island against the incredible Chase (an awful lot to ask of a guy who has barely played). Where did this effort and performance come from? Worley hasn’t played much in this league since his first three seasons, but it was as if he dropped down from another planet. He looked like a combination of Ronnie Lott and Richard Sherman.
What defensive back groupings will Macdonald offer this week? No doubt he’ll have Peters back out there with outside responsibilities. But how will he play – or will he play – Worley after his excellent outing? Will he slide Marlon Humphrey back to the inside on a few or more occasions, put Worley on the outside with Peters, and take Kyle Hamilton off of the field, at least on true passing downs? We’ll see how Macdonald views his talent groupings.
Kyle Hamilton, Again
Which leads me back to Hamilton. A group of folks keep pointing to Pro Football Focus weekly high “ratings” of Hamilton. PFF keeps suggesting that Hamilton is one of the best safeties in the league. Their ratings are nonsense. Let’s get something straight. Hamilton has not played safety in weeks and weeks. He’s been highly effective at the line of scrimmage and in the flats, where he comes forward aggressively with power, length, and good short area burst. That’s where he excels. But he can’t – I repeat can’t – cover slot receivers in this league, and he can’t compete down the field with even average tight ends.
In many ways Hamilton is a man without a true position. He doesn’t have the natural ability, at the NFL level, to play deep on the backend. He’s too tall, tight, and slow to handle man coverage responsibilities. Even Ed Reed was never tasked to do that, though he’s not the right comparison. Perhaps a better one is Troy Polamalu who the Steelers moved all over the field as the ultimate chess piece. But Polamalu ran a 4.33. Hamilton just isn’t blessed with the physical essentials to allow him to succeed in that manner. Yes, he’s broken up passes at the line. Yes, he’s blitzed the quarterback well. He’s had a good chunk of plays against the run where he’s tackled quite effectively. This is where his “grades” are high. But as a cover man or true safety, it’s just not there. Not to this point.
Hamilton is the man to attack from the Bengals perspective. We will see how Mike Macdonald compensates or adjusts.
Now all of this is predicated on the Ravens stopping the run. My guess is we will see more of the Bengals run game than we saw last week. The Ravens’ struggles against the Falcons and Steelers didn’t just disappear. It will be interesting to see what game plan the Bengals utilize. Because I believe the Ravens are as ready and prepared to play against the Bengals pass game as anyone. There will be no excuses from the Ravens if their pass defense lets them down.
Who’s Your Quarterback?
There will be lots of time to debate Lamar. I’m planning a series of pieces examining the Lamar issue from all directions. So let me move on from that for now.
It’s a tough call, but I believe the Ravens have their best chance offensively with Tyler Huntley, not Anthony Brown. At least this week. The Ravens must reduce their turnover risk in this game, Give the defense the maximum ability to win this game for them. Huntley has done a reasonably good job protecting possession of the ball. It’s just too much to ask for the inexperienced Brown to avoid the key mistakes he made last week. Readers know that I’m no Huntley fan. But he probably gives them a better chance to keep the game close.
If Huntley struggles and if the Ravens get behind by more than two scores come halftime, I could imagine a switch to Brown (though I doubt the Ravens could). But that’s how I’d play it. Again, give the defense a chance to win this game for you. Let’s remember something else. The Ravens held Joe Burrow and pals largely in check over their prior two meetings this year.
The Pass Rush
David Ojabo, in his brief play last week, highlighted the big upside he has as a pass rusher. He’s got a lot of work to do, and I expect to see more strength, more bend, more punch – more everything – next year. But he’s got pass rushing gifts that the Ravens’ other pass rushers lack. And putting him out there allows the Ravens to judiciously utilize Justin Houston. Ojabo needs to be a factor this week.
Who Can Catch the Ball?
The Ravens had two big plays from their receivers last week. Who made them? Sammy Watkins. Boy what a mess in the wide receiver room. On any given play you don’t know whether DeMarcus Robinson is favored to either catch the ball, drop it, or fumble it (he’s got to re-learn points-of-contact ball principles). James Proche can’t seem to remember where the sideline is located. Tylan Wallace? I hope you stored that image of him making a catch last week, because he’s out yet again this week. And then there’s – oh yes, Andy Isabella. Yup, this group will scare the bejesus out of the Bengals.
So, what to do? You have four tight ends who can catch the ball and do something with it once they catch it. Spread at least one of them wide, preferably Isaiah Likely and/or Mark Andrews. Use your running backs out of the backfield. All/each of them. Run your jet sweep with Isabella, but make it a fake or a double reverse this week. And let Watkins attack down the field once or twice because he’s probably your best threat – at least stretch the field and make the Bengals defend.
When you get into the red zone, actually throw the ball to tight ends in the end zone. Kolar towered over the slot corners he was matched up with last week. No linebacker will handle Likely one on one. Use these guys in the red zone!
And don’t call the Lamar running plays for Huntley. He can’t do it. Give the ball to Dobbins. Give the ball to Gus. Even give it to Justice Hill. Just give it!
The Ravens can beat the Bengals. They have a chance this week. It’s not crazy. But if they lose, the first order of business for next week is to hop on the offensive coordinator search because it’s going to be very competitive out there. I’ll get to some thoughts on that next week if the Ravens lose.
I am glad the pain is over !