The Ravens are in the playoffs. These last two regular season games are all about seeding. If I had my druthers, the Ravens best slot is probably fifth as the top wild card team. That’s right, not third as the AFC North division winner. I’d rather play the AFC South winner in round one (Jacksonville, or a decimated Tennessee) – even on the road – then play home against either the Chargers or the Dolphins. And if I win those games, I think the Ravens are better suited to play the Bills then either the Chiefs or the Bengals, given the issues with the Ravens corners. But it’s not up to me, after all.
Now, for some idle observations heading into the second Steelers game.
Tyler Huntley
Count me as off of the Tyler Huntley bandwagon. His decision-making in the Falcons game was atrocious. His arm strength is mediocre. Huntley’s accuracy deep down the field is not any better than Lamar Jackson’s. And Greg Roman calls plays as if Huntley was Jackson – way too many RPOs and direct quarterback runs. Huntley is not that elusive, is not that powerful, and is not that explosive. The awful combination of Roman and Huntley is producing the obvious – an inability to score points.
The Big Formations March On
You can run at me all the statistics you want illustrating the dominance of the Ravens rushing attack. It is dominant. But only outside the red zone. Once Roman’s offense gets into the scoring area, the rushing attack grinds to a halt (for obvious reasons), and the Ravens are left with field goals. This is not going to beat the Bengals. It’s not going to beat the Chiefs, the Chargers, the Dolphins or the Bills. It’s probably not even going to beat the Steelers.
No, you cannot win a championship playing 1940s style offensive football combined with a smothering defense. The Ravens’ defense is strong, but it’s not dominant. Their combination of cornerbacks is not good enough. To think that the Ravens can replicate the 2000 Ravens’ approach is foolish. I try to look at probabilities. What is the likelihood that the Ravens’ offensive approach, combined with their defensive capabilities, can string together a series of wins against the post-season lineup, almost all of whom can score points in droves. These opposing offenses are just too potent for a one-dimensional, big formation Ravens attack to keep up. The Ravens are not going to go through the playoffs winning a series of under 20 points games.
Greg Roman
This dose of reality puts the onus squarely where it should be. On the back of the creative force behind the offense. We know Roman doesn’t have a great deal to work with in the wide receiver room. But good Lord he must get more creative with what he does have. I keep coming back to the same general points. If this offense is going to score more touchdowns – and it has the ability to do so – Roman must incorporate more misdirection, disguise, and play action. His potent running attack is perfectly suited for play action, but he just doesn’t exploit the many opportunities.
We just never see Roman use the running backs out of the backfield. Rarely split wide. Never circle routes, never screens, never isolations on linebackers. Justice Hill, at the least, is fully capable of catching balls in space. I believe J.K. Dobbins can do it, and I know Gus Edwards can do it. Roman has to create more threats in the passing game, and this is one clear way to do it.
Even with the receivers the Ravens have, Roman is unwilling to utilize crossers to any real degree. That was always my biggest beef with the failure to exploit Devin Duvernay. Perhaps Roman doesn’t trust Tyler Huntley’s vision, worried that Huntley might not see a dropping linebacker or two. But crossing routes can really stress defenses, especially against eight in the box looks.
There was one game-plan improvement in the Falcons game. I counted at least three tight-end seam routes to Josh Oliver. Two of the passes were incomplete though all three were catchable. As I’ve written previously, I like Oliver down the seam; his athleticism is a threat there. But let’s see some of the same to Isaiah Likely too. Roman needs to increase the pace here.
And let’s hope Roman doesn’t forget Mark Andrews. Get him in motion. Line him up wide. He’s got to get more targets going forward.
The Steelers Outplayed the Ravens Two Weeks Ago
To be fair, the Steelers should have won the first meeting. Relying on blocked field goals to win games is not a great formula for success. Pittsburgh moved the ball through the air way too easily. And Kenny Pickett is a better player than Mitch what’s-his-name. George Pickens will be a dominant player in this league (when was the last time we said that about a Ravens rookie receiver; or any Ravens receiver?) and he’s a tough matchup for the Ravens. Pittsburgh’s run blocking has improved, and they are not an easy out for the Ravens.
I wouldn’t expect the Ravens to be as run dominant this go round against the Steelers. If they are lucky, Myles Jack won’t play and that will help.
Morgan Moses and More Kyle Hamilton
Say what you want. Morgan Moses has been an absolute steal in free agency. I can’t keep count of the multiple times per game where Moses pulls across the formation and obliterates defenders to create huge running lanes. He’s just been fantastic in the run game. Marcus Williams was a great free agent signing. But dollar for dollar Moses has been a revelation.
As readers know I’m no Kyle Hamilton fan. Lining him up in the slot has allowed Marlon Humphrey to go back outside. And Hamilton offers solid blitz production. His length is an asset at the line and in the flat. But he’s just woeful trying to cover in space (his hips are too tight and his feet too slow), even against tight ends. Sure, he’s made a play or two. But he’s got a target on his back and rightly so. Expect the Steelers to go right at him.
I’ve said it before and still believe – I’d rather play Pepe Williams in the slot against real receivers. Williams was called for a very weak PI in the Falcons game, but he blanketed his man. He has much more coverage ability in the slot than Hamilton.
Other Meanderings
I wasn’t surprised that Isaiah Mack did not clear waivers. He’s got some game, and it’s a shame that the Ravens couldn’t keep him. I was a little surprised to see Tyler Badie scooped up. But I don’t think he had a future with the Ravens, even though I liked him pre-draft.
Is Lamar dogging it in his recovery? No chance. That’s just reporters writing stories. Lamar has every incentive in the world to get back on the field. And he wants to win.
I thought Greg Roman might try a little dose of Andy Isabella at some point. He offers elite speed, excellent feet and the type of quickness that is missing in the receiver room at this point. That’s not to mean that he’s the second coming. But I’d be tempted to try a thing or two with him.
The pass rush has died. If David Ojabo is fully recovered, he needs to be active because the Ravens aren’t getting much from any of the other outside linebackers beyond Tyus Bowser. This is a real problem going forward because the corners just can’t cover long enough and the Ravens zone schemes continue to be mediocre.
The Ravens can’t afford to blitz Roquan Smith too often. He’s simply too dominant in the middle of the field and has the range to drop more deeply in the zones. He’s a force that receivers are worried about coming across the field; a presence much more like Ray Lewis back in the day. Mike Macdonald must keep him back there, and leave the blitzing to Patrick Queen. By the way, Queen has arguably been the Ravens most effective pass rusher over the last month.
